Melton Preview – September 7, 2024
In This Article
Bon’s Preview and Game Plan
Race 1
MAP CONFIDENCE: N/A (ELUSIVE (4) has the pace to cross and trail but would need to press the button hard and may finish up 3 or even 4 poles regardless. If EUREKA JO (2) assumes the top at some point in the early stages, there’s every hope DRAW A DREAM (10) will blast around and take over mid-race or earlier).
Even though most of tonight’s dozen VSS semi’s harbour very limited winning hopes as usual, somewhat surprisingly, there aren’t the typical slew of clear-cut stone-cold morals. This opening event, however, may be something of an exception. Normally, declaring second row runners on this card is bad business as qualification/conservation often overrides the myopic desire for success but DRAW A DREAM (10) has so much on her rivals it really shouldn’t matter. The $1.75 she opened at was glorious but even at $1.55 she still appears value and rates as the best straight-out winning wager all evening.
Race 2
MAP CONFIDENCE: 90% (That the early battle for ascendancy will be won by THE LOST STORM (2) or KEAYANG TOKYO (5) with PERFECT CLASS (7) also pushing forward into a prominent position from his outside front-line gate).
It may be the highest quality contest on the programme but tonight’s first – and far stronger – VSS semi for 4YO males is also a migraine-maker of the highest order. If you’re keen to play, however, there’s two ways of addressing the event. If you think KEAYANG TOKYO (5) can ping THE LOST STORM (2) off the gate, then he might be the one, even copping some expected pressure from PERFECT CLASS (7). If you believe the three front-line guns mentioned above may tear one another slightly asunder in the early stages, then HEZA PUNK ROCKER (11) & EXOTIC BUSHRANGER (13) might get their shot. I won’t be playing unless EXOTIC BUSHRANGER (13) gets to a crazy quote, in which case I could entertain him on a 1×4 basis.
Race 3
MAP CONFIDENCE: 80% (That SOME AMERICAN (2) will be first to the pegs).
60-75% (That BEST DEAL (4) will take over from SOME AMERICAN (2) soon thereafter)
Further fluctuations closer to race time will be most interesting here. Rising star BEST DEAL (4) has already been supported from $1.95 to $1.75. On the evidence we have, from the alleys they’ve drawn, he’s clearly the benchmark runner given the most likely scenario would see SOME AMERICAN (2) find the pegs first then relent to THE BEST DEAL (4) soon afterward. Here’s the kicker. Again, based on competitive evidence, TBD should be favourite but $1.75 seems rock bottom odds. On vibe, however, he may well be a near moral and ultimately start shorter than $1.5. If you’re siding with the vibe, I’d back him now if you haven’t already then cop it sweet if that vibe doesn’t vibe!
Race 4
MAP CONFIDENCE: 70-75% (That ALWAYS HOT (2) will find himself in front, either simply crossing SILVER PISTOL (1) – who may choose to hold (unlikely) – or soon after PERFECT STRANGER (6) potentially pings all-comers off the gate).
First, massive Kudos to those that backed ALWAYS HOT (2) earlier in the week at anywhere near his opening price of $8. He’s no moral, but a little The Best Deal he’s the very likely leader, he’s untapped and the absence of pressure inextricably linked to semi-final racing plays very heavily in his favour. He’s the one for me along with perhaps SILVER PISTOL (1) at a better quote, but there’s also another leftfield, Off Broadway Place option worth considering as well. His name is PERFECT STRANGER (6). He may not get there or could still end up three poles even if he does, but PS displayed exceptional early pace at heat level of this series and if he crosses early the $6 Place price would look very nice indeed.
Race 5
MAP CONFIDENCE: 70-75% (That SOHO AMERICANO (2) will find the front and under circumstances looks very likely to maintain that advantage).
Just as in the previous contest, heartfelt congrats to those savvy enough to support underrated and impressive heat winner SOHO AMERICANO (2) at her opening quote of $6 in this opening VSS semi for freshman fillies. She’s far from a moral but her gate speed will likely send her to the head of affairs and even at $3.30 she’s well worth a wager. Funnily enough, her SP profile ($21 in heat & $3.3 tonight) seems insane but not as warped as LET HER ROLL (12) who started $1.35 in the same qualifier as SA, was beaten a very small margin and turns up tonight at $9.5/$2. Bad draw and all, that simply can’t be right, so she appeals as the EW saver at very least with MISS AUSTRALIANA (5) another serious winning chance but far too short at $1.7.
Race 6
MAP CONFIDENCE: N/A (ANOTHER NIEN (1) possesses the early pace to hold if they so choose and, if not, the option to take a sit on either LITTLE LOUIE (2) or COMPETE (4) with favourite BLAZING HOME (12) almost duty-bound to make a mid-race move & park out in transit)
Here’s a fun fact. Given the vast disparity in class between tonight’s two VSS semis for 4YO males, only two of the 12 runners in this second semi started anywhere near the head of markets in their respective heats. They being COMPETE (4) (who started $1.95 in the weakest qualifier) and BLAZING HOME (12) who started $2.15 against Keayang Tokyo and The Lost Storm among others. Both horses finished second, but BLAZING HOME (12) was far more impressive and even from his tough alley tonight he’s the absolute obvious benchmark and not unfairly priced at $2.3. Backing him straight out is the way to go for mine.
Race 7
MAP CONFIDENCE: N/A (Market support suggests KINGMAN (1) is likely to lead outright from his polemarking draw, though it’s also possible that WAR DAN BUDDY (2) crosses then sits on KINGMAN (1) or perhaps crosses and holds).
The flood of money which has come for gifted polemarker KINGMAN (1) in the third leg of tonight’s Quad overwhelmingly suggests he’ll be leading this event. The little query surrounds HOW that lead materialises. Will he hold up early and keep all rivals wide? Or will he ‘let’ WAR DAN BUDDY (2) find the pegs first then re-take the top soon afterward? There’s an argument for both scenarios though option B obviously carries far more risk and as a result we’re leaning toward – and hoping for – option A. Here’s why; if KINGMAN (1) does lead outright then ALOT LIKE LOUIE (8) is ideally placed to land the trail in transit and, as Tweeted earlier this week, he represented the best single wager all night at $6 the drum should that transpire. Even at $4.6 he’s worth a wager as many of the ‘bigger guns’ here are drawn to receive far tougher journeys. The third scenario yet unmentioned could see WDB cross and the polemarker trail. Plainly put if ALL lobs the trail I reckon he’s a $2.2 place bet and he’s perhaps $4 from three poles, which made $6 earlier this week overs regardless.
Race 8
MAP CONFIDENCE: 70-75% (That ZAHRA LOU (2) will hold her rivals wide in the initial stages though what transpires afterwards is something of a mystery. Expect multiple mid-race moves however with most major players drawn very poorly and somewhat required to improve position at their earliest convenience).
I was a big fan of second VSS semi fir 3YO Fillies when finishing the form; less so once I saw prices. Pound for pound and based on heat performances I do believe LOOK LIKE DIAMONDS (12) is the best horse engaged. With 5 Emma Stewart rivals to overcome, however, I was hoping for better than the $3.6 currently available and at more like the $5 which she opened. Despite that she’s possibly still worth a wager with a potential EW saver on RENEWAL (9) who simply seems disrespected at $9/$2.2. The same can potentially be said of PERPETUITY (10) at $26/$4.4 in a race where up to half of them can win and playing wide through staggered Quads is strongly advised.
Race 9
MAP CONFIDENCE: 90%+ (That SCHERGER THAT (1) can hold any earlier challengers wide off the gate then relent to FOXY DAN (5) quite early in proceedings).
Weird race this one. On face value, FOX DAN (5) seems alarmingly short at $1.3 for a juvenile that won his heat by a very small margin. The more you investigate it, however the harder it is to see than fellow being beaten as he draws so much better than his legitimate dangers, should almost certainly lead and will also improve sharply (as many of Emma’s should) second-up from a break. As a result, I’ll be targeting this as a 3-tiered Money Race with the favourite on top in all iterations and GO MIKI (11) to join him on the podium in two of the three staggers. I could also possibly entertain a straight Place wager on SCHERGER THAT (1) at $3.70 given his ideal alley and more than worthy heat effort first-up from a break.
Race 10
MAP CONFIDENCE: 90% (That TUPELO (3) will find pegs first and relent to TENACIOUSLY (4) with little resistance before a certain level of pressure arrives to keep them rolling a little mid-race).
The antepenultimate contest this evening goes against the typical VSS grain once more with several winning hopes engaged. Up to half the field in fact. Resulting from this openness, price becomes all-important, and on that score – and how taken I was with her heat win – I’m seeing MISS ARI (13) as the most enticing EW option at $8.5/$2.1. The early speed should be maudlin here with TUPELO (2) likely to cross before taking a sit on TENACIOUSLY (3) but with three of the biggest winning hopes all drawn out the back one suspects there’ll be action at some point and if MISS ARI (13) can join in off the right tempo, at the right time, I suspect she might well shoot on by or at least figure prominently in the finish.
Race 11
MAP CONFIDENCE: 90% (That SWEET BELLA (2) will find a pretty painless lead though it is marginally possible we’ll see SAHARA BREEZE (4) have a tiny crack for the top, or more-likely, race the favourite for a furlong or so in pursuit of opening a gap in-behind).
Pound for pound, there’s precious little between SWEET BELLA (2) and SAHARA BREEZE (4). Nevertheless, as mentioned umpteen times in these previews, this is semi-final world; and in this world SWEET BELLA (2) leads and almost certainly prevails. She’s only $1.3 so smashing her straight is a maniac’s errand, but she remains a lock for multis on a night we’re there a fewer near certainties than one might expect. It’s also an ideal Money Race given the placings will surely be filled between 1,4 & 8. Of that trio, there’s also a strong case that CREDULOUS (8) represents Place value at $2.6 the drum. Quite a strong case.
Race 12
MAP CONFIDENCE: 80-90% (That PARADISE VALLEY (5) will forge her way to the front with minimal resistance).
Of every runner I’ve rated on top this evening, only one has drifted rather than firmed, and that runner is PARADISE VALLEY (5) in the programme’s final event. Admittedly that drift hasn’t been significant however ($1.7-$1.85) and, rather than raise concern, it represents a rare opportunity to glean slightly more value than expected. Unlike many of tonight’s likely winners, PV isn’t an abject star that can overcome and outclass her rivals regardless, as evidenced by her record of 4 wins from 30 starts. She is, however, the very likely leader in a race of four winning hopes where none of her of her three key threats are megastars either and all have drawn outside her in ISTHISJUSTFANTASY (7), LUDACROUS (8) and VEE EM GEE MACRAY (10). Personally, I’m happy to back PV straight out or via multis & also play a couple of Money Races with PV to finish first or second at very worst & the remaining podium positions to be occupied by the trio outlined above.
J-BON’S $550 GAME PLAN FOR VICBRED SUPER SERIES SEMI-FINAL NIGHT
MULTI ($40)
DRAW A DREAM (R1 No. 11) $1.55
BEST DEAL (R3 No. 4) $1.75
SWEET BELLA (R11 No. 2) $1.3
PARADISE VALLEY (R12 No. 5) $1.85
Race 3 (MONEY RACE – TRIFECTAS)
4/ 2/ 8,9,10 ($48 gets 1600%)
4/ 8,9,10/ 2 ($12 gets 400%)
Race 5
SOHO AMERICANO (2) $30 WIN @ $3.3
LET HER ROLL (12) $10 EW @ $9.5/$2
Race 6
BLAZING HOME (12) $40 WIN @ $2.3
Race 7
ALOT LIKE LOUIE (8) $40 PLACE @ $6
Race 9 (MONEY RACE – FLEXI TRIFECTAS)
5/ 11/ 1,4,6 ($30 gets 1000%)
5/ 1,4,6/ 11 ($12 gets 400%)
5/ 1,4,6/ 1,4,6 ($4 gets 66.67%)
11/ 5/ 1,4,6 ($2 gets 66.67%)
SCHERGER THAT (1) $22 PLACE @ $3.7
Race 10
MISS ARI (13) $15 EW @ $8.5/$2.1
Race 11 (MONEY RACE – FIRST FOURS)
2/ 4/ 1,8/ 1,8,9 ($42 gets 1050%)
2/ 1,8/ 4/ 1,8,9 ($14 gets 350%
2/ 1,8/ 1,8/ 4 ($2 gets 100%)
2/ 4/ 1,8/ 6,7 ($2 gets 50%)
Race 12 (MONEY RACE – TRIFECTAS)
5/ 7,8,10/ 7,8,10 ($48 gets 800%)
7,8,10/ 5/ 7,8,10 ($12 gets 200%)
EARLY QUADS ($100)
10/ 2,5,7,11/ 4/ 1,2,12 ($60 gets 400%)
10/ 8,13/ 4/ 1,2,12 ($10 gets 166.67%)
1,2,9,12/ 2,5,7,11,13/ 4/ 1,2,12 ($15 gets 25%)
10/ 2,5,7,11,13/ 2,10/ 1,2,12 ($10 gets 33.33%)
10/ 2,5,7,11,13/ 8,9/ 1,2,12 ($5 gets 16.67%)
Codes’ Preview and Game Plan
Race 1
The second-row draw hasn’t curbed my enthusiasm about DRAW A DREAM (10) one iota. If anything it just means we’ll probably get a better price. Her 8/9 record is ominous and can grow to 10/11 with Semi-Final into Final success in the next eight days, All in.
NSW-trained EVER ART (9) the second pick. Cheeky drive to get off the pegs early in the Triad Final… was a top run.
Bookies who put up EUREKA JO (2) at $151 last time out got it plain wrong. Ridiculous. Absurd. Ludicrous. Crazy stuff. Won’t be near that price tonight and is in play for exotics.
ELUSIVE (4) has a weapon in her blistering gate speed and can find the pegs early for Rocket Connor Clarke. She’ll be among those fighting out the minor money late.
SHOWSOMEJOY (12) steps up to her biggest test yet and hasn’t got a friendly draw for it but does, obviously, have a terrific record. Will have plenty of fans but I’ve got her fifth pick.
I’m risking TILLY JAYNE (1) too as I fear she’ll get double-crossed early doors and be buried away in the run.
VERDICT: DRAW A DREAM (10) is the clear-cut top pick. $1.55 is probably a pinch of value.
Race 2
This is an epic line-up. THE LOST STORM (2), KEAYANG TOKYO (5), PERFECT CLASS (7), ROADMASTER (8), HEZA PUNK ROCKER (11) and EXOTIC BUSHRANGER (13) could all be genuine top-liners.
For that reason, aside from early quads, I’m leaving this one well and truly alone.
VERDICT: KEAYANG TOKYO (5) for the sake of tipping one – but include 2,5,7,8,11,13 in EQs.
Race 3
Expecting BEST DEAL (4) to run to the top with SOME AMERICAN (2) in the trail and the Bottle-O three-pegs.
BEST DEAL (4) wins under this scenario IMO and SOME AMERICAN (2) finishes second.
The only other horse under this scenario that could conceivably run second would be MIKI TO SUCCESS (8), who is flying, but I don’t think that will happen, as it will likely come off the pegs at some stage and have to work around them. But I love how MIKI is going.
I have always had plenty of time for SERGEANT LOU (9) and I suspect he’s going to have a big future. He went well enough first-up and with natural improvement second-up, he’ll be cherry ripe for the finals. Hard to see him spoiling the favourite here from the back row.
STORMRYDER (10) is the other major player. Little bit plain last start? Could hit back hard second-up.
VERDICT: BEST DEAL (4) looks the winner and at $1.75, a bit like DRAW A DREAM in the first – it’s odds-on but I think it’s a touch of value. Happy to play some First-4s here and shoot for the moon.
Race 4
ALWAYS HOT (2) $8 into $2.5 for whatever that is worth early doors with the green machine. It can’t be insignificant. The son of ALWAYS B MIKI is unbeaten in two starts.
If this were a final, I’d think SILVER PISTOL (1) would be leading and holding. It’s not, and I get the feeling he will grab cover. SILVER PISTOL (1) was awesome last time out and against the pegs from the pole has to be a huge chance. $5 is a nice price. From behind ALWAYS HOT (2), however, place becomes the play. You could play a 1×5 type of bet on the pole.
STORMS COLLIDE (9) gets into a good spot early trailing out ALWAYS HOT (2).
The powerhouse young son of POSTER BOY, THE HIGHLIGHT REEL (12), oozes class. He’s a massive show despite the gate.
HESITATE (10) and FORTY LOVE (13) are both top-notch talents, too, but draws make things tricky for them as winning chances.
ARSENIO (11) will win plenty of races, too, going forward.
VERDICT: Emma Stewart to dominate the race. SILVER PISTOL (1) top pick and nice price at $5. You could go 1×5 but I’ll just throw something to win and hope the overs gods deliver.
Race 5
SOHO AMERICANO (2) somehow opened at $6. That boggles the mind. Won from off the fence in the heat and was impressive in doing so. From this gate is a fair chance to lead and hold. No moral but you’d love to have a penny or two on at the $6.
IVSEENHEAVENSLIGHT (1) gets the sweet trail and will be scorching late. Should not miss the podium.
LET HER ROLL (12) can hit back despite the gate and you’re getting almost double digits this time.
MISS AUSTRALIANA (5) and BRIGHTON (4) both go in among the key hopes too.
VERDICT: SOHO AMERICANO (2) goes on top and IVSEENHEAVENSLIGHT shouldn’t miss a place from the pole.
Race 6
As podcast listeners will know, I’ve tipped MY UNCLE STAN (5) at $21 as my each-way roughie of the night. Loved the run last week in the heat behind KEAYANG TOKYO and BLAZING HOME (12). Only needs to replicate that and he goes close in this at any old odds.
BLAZING HOME (12) deserves to be marked favourite. Ran KEAYANG TOKYO to a neck last time out. Back-row draw makes it harder, but has the class.
YOUNG BLUEY (11) is a sit-sprinter I have a fair bit of time for. With the right run he could spring a surprise in this kind of field.
Of the rest, LITTLE LOUIE (2), GAWN (9) and COMPETE (4) are all in the mix.
VERDICT: Something each-way on MY UNCLE STAN at the big price.
Race 7
Stablemates KINGMAN (1), WAR DAN BUDDY (2) and SIR JIMMY (3) should be fighting this out but the market has identified that so it’s not exactly a revelation.
BROWNIESATMIDNIGHT (6) is $101 and not the worst fluker’s hope you’d ever see in this line-up.
KING REPELLERE (7) was also an eye-catcher last time out but the draw makes it hard.
VERDICT: Quad race only I suspect. KINGMAN (1) on top.
Race 8
LOOK LIKE DIAMONDS (12) was brilliant without winning in the heat. Charged up to DRAW A DREAM like only a good horse can, and finished it off strongly too, sustaining the rage. Market hasn’t missed early, $5 to $3.6.
ZAHRA LOU (2) has pole position and has a commanding record so far. Will be hard to hold out.
KISS (7) was rock-solid last time and is in play here, as are both RENEWAL (9) and STITCHED UP DAN (13). All horses mentioned in this paragraph will need a pinch of luck.
THE ANSWER (8) best absolute blow-out hope.
VERDICT: LOOK LIKE DIAMONDS (12) is my top pick.
Race 9
FOX DAN (5) remains a super short-priced favourite. I won’t be touching the $1.30 but that is certainly not to say he won’t be winning.
NEW SHUFFLE (7) as mentioned on the pod broke the clock last time out when having only second career run. Check out the closing splits – absurd for a 2yo pacer to be doing that, though it is hard to win from gate seven.
CAPTAIN MOORE (6) is out to $16, which feels major overs for in-form trainer-driver MIchael Stanley.
GO MIKI (11) is the other major contender in the ninth.
VERDICT: FOX DAN probably ends up getting a nice run and looks hard to hold out/
Race 10
MISS DISTURBIA (12) is unlucky not to be unbeaten. Exciting daughter of Art Major.
MISS ARI (13) has a bit of X-Factor but just has to overcome that horror gate.
TENACIOUSLY (4) is yet to put a foot wrong and is odds-on favourite as I type.
SURFE LE MER (11) the other major player for mine.
VERDICT: Siding with MISS DISTURBIO (12) but not with a huge amount of confidence.
Race 11
SAHARA BREEZE (4) is ‘one of mine’. I have lots of time for her. She has been brilliant this time in, and gets a draw to showcase a bit more early toe. I’m tipping her to upstage the odds-on jolly.
SWEET BELLA (2) is very good and may just get it too easy out in front, but SAHARA BREEZE (4) is lightning-quick, so even if Bella gets a jog of a time of it, she’s under the odds at $1.28.
SURFINGMAKESCENTS (1) at $7.50 is the other one being underrated here. She’s very good and draws perfectly.
CREDULOUS (8) should finish among the placings too from inside the back row.
VERDICT: Trifectas and something small for the win on my top pick.
Race 12
Love ISTHISJUSTFANTASY (7) but think has to go back and come with a booming run, as she does, and for that reason I’m leaning to PARADISE VALLEY (5) who gets the gate draw advantage.
The only other horses to play in trifectas for mine are LUDACROUS (8) and VEE EM GEE MACRAY (10).
CODES’ $385 GAME PLAN – GODSPEED!
$50 Multi @ $3.41
R1 No.10 Draw A Dream – WIN $1.5
R3 No.4 Best Deal – WIN $1.75
R4 No.1 Silver Pistol – PLACE $1.30
Race 4 No.1 Silver Pistol $20 win @ $5
Race 6 No.5 MY UNCLE STAN $15 each-way at $21/$3.90
Race 11 No.4 Sahara Breeze $20 win @ $3.40
Race 3 – FIRST 4 $90 Spend
4 / 2 / 8,9,10 / 8,9,10 $60 for X10
4 / 8,9,10 / 2 / 8,9,10 $30 for X 5
Race 11 – TRIFECTA $30
1,2,4 / 1,2,4 / 1,2,4,8 $30 for 250%
Race 12 – TRIFECTA $45
5 / 7,8,10 / 7,8,10 $30 X5
7,8,10 / 5 / 7,8,10 $15 X2.5
Early Quad:
10 / 2,5,7,8,11,13 / 4 / 1,2,9,12 $50 for 208.33%
Quaddie
1,2,5,12 / 2,4,5,9,11,12 / 1,2,3,6,7 / 2,7,8,12 $50 for 10.41%