Melton Preview – October 5, 2024
In This Article
Bon’s Preview and Game Plan
Race 1
Despite the rapid, continuing evolution of square gaiting in this part of the world, one thing hasn’t changed. As opposed to pacers, elite-level, in-for trotters remain far less dependent upon maps and circumstances to dominate their rivals. And that’s why IM READY JET (3) (who opened $1.9 and is now $1.6) is very worthy of her extremely short quote and should justify it in tonight’s opening event. Yes, there is a heap of front-line speed engaged but even if the favourite’s major threat – for mine – QUEEN ELIDA (4), finds the front, she’s been rolled by IM REDAY JET (3) the last two times this has transpired, and the other potential dangers are either stepping up in grade or drawn to spot IRJ a tidy margin in transit. For these reasons I’d be happy to see IRJ parked as expected but would prefer to see her dominate with speed rather than stamina; and if she somehow leads, there’s almost no hope of her going under IMO.
Race 2
Firstly, there’s little denying tonight’s Smoken Up Sprint is the highest quality pacing feature staged on Victorian soil in many, many months. It’s also the most intriguing, simply be virtue of the 1720m trip and a barrier composition which sees the nations’ pre-eminent pacer, LEAP TO FAME (7), forced to confront a car park starting position. It’s also, however, one of only two events this evening I won’t be playing through via Multis. Look, the truth remains that LTF has panels on every Australian rival – including those he faces tonight – but his major assignment here, the Vic Cup, is only 7 days away and at $1.6 he’s shorter than I’d like even though it would be wonderful watching him crush all-comers as he very well might. If I’m being honest, there’s a touch of blowout looming here & if I was to play it might be via 1×5 or, more likely, Place-only wagers on PERFECT CLASS (8) and CAPTAIN HAMMERHEAD (10).
Race 3
Before we get stuck into the four Vic Derby/Vic Oaks qualifiers which comprise the following four contests (starting here) it’s probably worth noting that, in my opinion at least, little thought or heed should be given to their 2760m trips. Given that 6 runners will make their finals from each preliminary and that the vast majority of horses engaged are largely unfamiliar with staying journeys, I expect most, if not all, of these events will be staged in fairly pedestrian fashion. As for this first Derby heat, I’ll be shocked if the winner doesn’t come via SOME AMERICAN (4) (likely leader), MIKI TO SUCCESS (3) or KINGMAN (10), who, between them comprised the recent Vicbred Super Series Trifecta for 3YO males. And my top tip is the horse that won that VSS decider, MIKI TO SUCCESS (3) who continues to prove underrated and can prevail tonight under various circumstances
Race 4
Of this programme’s four relative locks, it’s probably fair to say that BAY OF BISCAY (4) looms as the most vulnerable, though that’s only in comparison to the other three and there’s every indication he should also prevail. The best news for BOB is that he really has one, or perhaps two realistic threats. The first is BEST DEAL (6), who’d need to lead, which appears unlikely. The second is NATHAN STREET (1), who gets the draw and who’s best is very good, but who can also do things wrong and mix his form, along with the fact he’s second-up from a spell and will be seeking to peak for next weekend. The truth is, the more I write this spiel, the more confident I become about BAY OF BISCAY (4) and, if he finds the front, which seems quite likely, it’s tough to see that last-start Eureka runner-up not prevailing with relative ease.
Race 5
There’s a bit going on in tonight’s first Vic Oaks heat and the formative leg of this evening’s Quad. Clearly, whoever wins the early war for ascendancy between EUREKA JO (2) and AARDIE B MIKI (5) will have a significant bearing on the way this contest is staged but even if the latter filly succeeds in that venture (and I’m not convinced she will), I’s shocked she’s the $2.4 favourite based on her Queensland form. In aggregate, she beat LOOK LIKE DIAMONDS (8) by 5.4 in her Southeast/Qld Oaks successes and LLD is $11 here. I’m leaning toward KISS (1) who was super in all 3 VSS efforts and may show more Gate Speed than many expect from the pole and DRAW A DREAM (7) who raced flat in her VSS Final but appeared totally outstanding prior to that forgivable ‘failure’. My third pick is the perpetually underrated EUREKA JO (2) who possesses very good early pace and seems destined to find herself in the right spot to roll bigger name rivals at some point soon. All three outlined runners are staggered through my Mutlis tonight in the hope and expectation of popular elect ABM getting rolled.
Race 6
At first glance, this second Vic Oaks heat loomed as one of easiest contests to assess on a programme unlikely to spring many surprises whatsoever. The things changed. Look, all things being equal, and with the benefit of her ideal alley, SHOWSOMEJOY (1) should hold her rivals wide early and comfortably secure a pillar-to-post success henceforth. Still, the presence of a rare Kiwi challenger named COASTAL BABE (2) who also possesses early toe and has quality experience over genuine journeys somewhat complicates matters, as does the rapidly ascending trajectory of STITCHED UP DAN (6) who had no right to get as close as she did in her recently staged VSS Final behind tonight’s popular elect. Courtesy of these confounding factors I’ll be staying out here unless Quads come into play.
Race 7
As things stand, KEAYANG ZAHARA (2) looms as the Great Brown Hope of Australian Harness Racing and may well end up being a horse of genuine International standing down the track based on just 7 mind-bogglingly magnificent racetrack performances to date. Barring natural disaster of some kind, she obviously makes it 8 from 8 tonight with pseudo-stablemate JILLIBY BALLERINA (5) almost certain to join her on the dais with the other podium role likely to be filled by either MAORIS MAC (4) or NORDIC REIGN (3) if she can lob the trailing role in transit.
Race 8
DEREK THE JET (4) may lag marginally behind Keayang Zahara regarding absolute glamour and champion potential, but that margin isn’t massive. Like KZ, Derek is undefeated, indeed he’s one success further down the track, and, also like KZ, it’s tough to envisage where his first defeat comes from. It almost certainly won’t materialise tonight regardless. Making coin from tonight’s ultimate contest will not be easy, but if you stagger tricks including REMUS PHOENIX (2), KYVALLEY MICHAEL (4) and THUNDA STRUCK (6) you may sneak home with a minor, largely painless get-out profit.
J-BON’S $500 GAME PLAN FOR MELTON 05/ 10/’24
STAGGERED PARLAY THEORY
Multi combinations based on what I consider FOUR ‘locks’.
Those locks being: IM READY JET, BAY OF BISCAY, KEAYANG ZAHARA & DEREK THE JET
Staggered additions to this quartet coming via TWO further events: Races 3 & 5
To decide upon investments, I’ve assigned my THREE key hopes a ‘winning’ percentage
RACE 3
MIKI TO SUCCESS: 50%; KINGMAN: 35%, SOME AMERICAN 15%
RACE 5
KISS: 45%: DRAW A DREAM: 45%, EUREKA JO: 10%
MULTIS
IM READY JET/ BAY OF BISCAY/ KEAYANG ZAHARA/ DEREK THE JET/ MIKI TO SUCCESS/ KISS: $37.39 – $28.50 = $1055.63
IM READY JET/ BAY OF BISCAY/ KEAYANG ZAHARA/ DEREK THE JET/ MIKI TO SUCCESS/ DRAW A DREAM: $44.87 – $28.50 = $1278.81
IM READY JET/ BAY OF BISCAY/ KEAYANG ZAHARA/ DEREK THE JET/ MIKI TO SUCCESS/ EUREKA JO: $74.79 – $18 = $1346.24
IM READY JET/ BAY OF BISCAY/ KEAYANG ZAHARA/ DEREK THE JET/ KINGMAN/ KISS: $39.36 – $24 = $1946.64
IM READY JET/ BAY OF BISCAY/ KEAYANG ZAHARA/ DEREK THE JET/ KINGMAN/ DRAW A DREAM: $47.23 – $24 = $1130.62
IM READY JET/ BAY OF BISCAY/ KEAYANG ZAHARA/ DEREK THE JET/ KINGMAN/ EUREKA JO: $78.73 – $13.50 = $1062.97
IM READY JET/ BAY OF BISCAY/ KEAYANG ZAHARA/ DEREK THE JET/ SOME AMERICAN/ KISS: $30.50 – $18 = $549
IM READY JET/ BAY OF BISCAY/ KEAYANG ZAHARA/ DEREK THE JET/ SOME AMERICAN/ DRAW A DREAM: $36.60 – $18 = $658.80
IM READY JET/ BAY OF BISCAY/ KEAYANG ZAHARA/ DEREK THE JET/ SOME AMERICAN/ EUREKA JO: $61.01 – $7.5 = $457.59
STRAIGHT WAGERS
Race 2
$30 PLACE – PERFECT CLASS (8)
Race 3
$40 WIN – MIKI TO SUCCESS (3)
$25 WIN – KINGMAN (10)
MONEY RACES
Race 4
4/ 1,6/ 1,6,9,11: $24 gets 400%
4/ 1,6/ 2,7,8: $6 gets 100%
Race 7 – Trifectas
2/ 5/ 3,4: $40 gets 2000%
2/ 3,4/ 5: $15 gets 750%
2/ 3,4/ 1,8: $15 gets 750%
Race 8 – First 4’s
3/ 4/ 2,6/ Field: $30 gets 500%
3/ 2/ 4,6/ Field: $20 gets 333.33%
3/ 6/ 2,4/ Field: $10 gets 166.67%
QUADS
1,7/ 1/ 2/ 3: $30 gets 1500%
1,7/ 2,6/ 2/ 3: $20 gets 500%
2,5,8/ 1/ 2/ 3: $15 gets 500%
2,5,8/ 2,6/ 2/ 3: $10 gets 166.67%