Melton Preview – October 12, 2024
In This Article
Bon’s Preview and Game Plan
Race 1
3ALDEBARAN VERA4KEAYANG STUKA11PARISIAN ARTISTE1KEAYANG GUCCI12ROCKINWITHATTITUDE5JAZSPUR8REVELSTOKE9SUNDONS COURAGE6DONT CARE10NEPHEW OF SONOKO13ONE OVER ALL NZ7SACRED MOUNTAIN NZMAP CONFIDENCE: 80%+ (That KEAYANG STUKA (4) will be first to pegs and will either retain that advantage or take sit on ALDEBARAN VERA (3) with latter scenario slightly favoured).
Essentially, the opening event on Vic Cup night looks a clash between a pair of Marg Lee-trained front-rowers in ALDEBARAN VERA (3) and KEAYANG STUKA (4) along with three class runners drawn wide off the back in PARISIAN ARTISTE (11), ROCKINWITHATTITUDE (12) and ONE OVER ALL (13). I’m siding with the two up front for the following reasons. First, they hold all the tactical aces as Stuka should be first to pegs and can then either hold or take a sit on Vera. Second, there’s not enough between that pair and the back-row trio to suggest any of them can simply dominate them with class. I’ve backed both and I’d advise following my lead as they’ll both shorten between now and start time IMO.
Race 2
5BACH NZ3KOWALSKI ANALYSIS11CANTFINDABETTORMAN NZ1ROARFORROSCOE6HELLUVA NZ2DHAULAGIRI NZ8HURRICANE HARLEY9BULLETPROOF BOY4KOSIMO10LIKE A WILDFIRE NZ13TANGO TARA NZ7BEYOND DELIGHTMAP CONFIDENCE: 60-70% (That KOWALSKI ANALSIS (3) will get to pegs (with intent only question). From there he can hold top or take a sit on BACH (5)).
I’m not mad keen on tonight’s virtual Vic Cup consolation but will offer a few thoughts that punters can work with any which way they please. If I had just one ‘tip’ in the race it would be LIKE A WILDIFRE (10) who has a better record of second line than front line draws and looks beautifully placed, though $3.2 is about his right price. From a Pace Only or 1×5 perspective ROARFORROSCOE (1) and KOWALSKI ANALYSIS (3) both appeal – particularly the former at $7 the drum, while BULLETPROOF BOY (9) and TANGO TARA (13) also represent overs at $19 & $15 respectively. If I had to select two wagers, I’d back LAW to win ad Roar to place.
Race 3
2AARDIES EXPRESS NZ1JILLIBY WILLOW5MAJOR DELIGHT8RAKERO REBEL NZ4ILLAVABUBBLES NZ3SEW WHAT9MY MOONLITE DREAM NZ10SOHO HISTORIA6ISTHISJUSTFANTASY11SWEET BELLA12TAY TAY13SAHARA BREEZEMAP CONFIDENCE: 75%-80% (That AARDIES EXPRESS (2) gets lead soon after start courtesy of fast beginner JILLIBY WILLOW (1) drawn inside).
Despite the fact I believe red figure favourite AARDIES EXPRESS (2) is vulnerable in tonight’s first Group 1 feature, I’m still not sure I’ll play. If I was to get involved, however, I’d have something 1×5 on both SWEET BELLA (11) and SAHARA BREEZE (13). Both runners are high quality, and both should stay the trip very well, but I would perhaps wait and hope that their prices blow out even further than currently available before pulling the trigger as I sense there’s a decent chance of that transpiring.
Race 4
2OLLIVICI NZ8MUFASA METRO NZ4JUST BELIEVE9QUEEN ELIDA NZ7HARRY STAMPER NZ3ALDEBARAN ZEUS6KEAYANG CHUCKY5IM READY JET11CALLMETHEBREEZE FRAMAP CONFIDENCE: 85% (That OLLIVICI (1) has the requisite pace to hold rivals wide for as long as Chris Lang pleases & 60/40 that he’ll post JUST BELIEVE (4) in transit).
Once again, I’m likely to stay out of tonight’s Bill Collins Sprint though it should be an absorbing contest particularly if I’m correct in predicting that OLLIVICI (2) looks quite likely to park champion rival and $1.33 favourite JUST BELIEVE (4) in transit. Well-played if you jagged the early Win or Place odds about CALLMETHEBREEZE (11) as he can certainly win this contest under the circumstances mentioned above. The only possible wager I can find is QUEEN ELIDA (9) the drum or, perhaps, 1×5. I’ve always believed she’s much better when not used up early and if she’s coiled up three poles & able to find clear air late, she’ll charge with venom at the finish.
Race 5
6SOME AMERICAN2BEST DEAL8KINGMAN NZ1HES FROM HEAVEN NZ4STORMRYDER10RAVISHING SLOY9DEE ROE7NATHAN STREET13OUR LUCIANO3MIKI TO SUCCESS11BAY OF BISCAY12NO NOTTHEBUTTONSMAP CONFIDENCE: 85% (That BEST DEAL (2) crosses over early. From there he can hold the top or take a trail and I’d say he’s 60% likely to trail either SOME AMERICAN (6) (most likely) or BAY OF BISCAY (11) (possible)).
He’s not exactly a stone-cold stinking moral, but barring unforeseen obstacles BEST DEAL (2) looms as the single Best Bet all night in this evening’s Group 1 Vic Derby decider. All things being equal he has the pace to cross over early and from there, he can hold the top if no pressure is applied (unlikely) or trail a stablemate like SOME AMERICAN (6) or perhaps BAY OF BISCAY (11) in transit – I fancy the former. Either one appears almost certain to carry BD everywhere he needs to go, and his truly wicked turn of pace should win the day with his only serious threats coming via friendly fire.
Race 6
5ACT NOW1MACH DAN12SWAYZEE8MAJOR MOTH6BETTER ECLIPSE4MAX DELIGHT9CURLY JAMES11NERANO NZ2CATCH A WAVE10PERFECT CLASS13CAPTAIN RAVISHING7DISTRICT ATTORNEYMAP CONFIDENCE: 90% (That MACH DAN (1) can hold all rivals wide for as long as desired before probably taking a trail with preferred option being ACT NOW (5).
Harness Racing is an amazingly, wonderfully unique sport in many ways, and one of these ways is that a single scratching in monster Group 1 event can bear the influence that Leap To Fame’s has in tonight’s Victoria Cup. In every way. Before Larry’s scratching this was a one-horse race and tactics were very predictable. Now, almost any runner can win, and potential tactics/maps are far more unwieldy. As was always the case MACH DAN (1) can hold his rivals wide for as long as desired though now, there’s every hope of him being attacked by multiple rivals through the first few hundred metres and is, as predicted, he hopes to take a sit on resuming stablemate ACT NOW (5), there’s every hope they’ll record a staggering Lead Time in the process. Enter the swoopers. Even in this scenario peg-line runners like MACH DAN (1) and MAJOR MOTH (8) remain well placed but I’m siding with PERFECT CLASS (10) as my top tip and Best Value all evening at $16 and I also wouldn’t rule out CAPTAIN RAVISHING (13) descending from downtown at $26.
Race 7
3AARDIE B MIKI NZ2COASTAL BABE NZ6KISS NZ8SHOWSOMEJOY NZ5LOOK LIKE DIAMONDS4VAGUE BEAUTY9TILLY JAYNE10JILLIBY ILLUMINATE NZ7THE ANSWER11STITCHED UP DAN12EUREKA JO13UNIQUELY IDEALMAP CONFIDENCE: 50/50 (That COASTAL BABE (2) burns hard to hold out AARDIE B MIKI (3) or simply sits on her in transit).
Like most of tonight’s very short-priced favourites, I believe COASTAL BABE (2) looks vulnerable in this Vic Oaks Final despite her very impressive Aussie debut at heat level of this series last weekend. If she takes a sit on AARDIE B MIKI (3) perhaps she is invincible, but if they go to war, that war could last a fair while and ultimately leave scars with both runners. If you believe there’s a decent hope of this happening then 1×5 wagers on STITICHED UP DAN (11) and, to a lesser degree, EUREKA JO (12) would feel very reasonable at the halfway point of proceedings.
Race 8
5EXOTIC BUSHRANGER3SHANLOU NZ11LE BELLE BIJOUX2HES A MEISTER NZ4RAKERO SLAMMER NZ10SPYGLASS NZ8YOUNGGIFTEDANDBLACK NZ9CLASSIC MISSION NZ6ARGGGHHH7TIGER BAND WAGONMAP CONFIDENCE: 60% (That EXOTIC BUSHRANGER (5) can burn across and lead with 40% hope SHANLOU (3) can hold him off).
In one sense, the final leg of tonight’s Quad represents the toughest race all evening as perhaps 7 of the 10 engaged runners can win. On another, EXOTIC BUSHRANGER (5) could prove one of the easiest collects all evening. There is good, relatively even Gate Speed off the front row here, but I’ve mapped EB to find the front, and if he does, I reckon he’s all but over the line. If not, he’s still the one to beat but where $2.5 would be very generous one way, it’s probably slight unders the other, so do your own maps and make your decisions based upon what you uncover.
Race 9
4KEAYANG ZAHARA6DREAMS OF LOVE13VIOLET STANFORD5LINK IN BIO12PINNIE9CENTURION DREAM2NO TELLING HEATHER8ALL THAT REMAINS1WITH APLOMB7KARAKAJACK TOOTH3JILLIBY BALLERINI11MAORIS MACMAP CONFIDENCE: 90%+ (That KEAYANG ZAHARA (4) will assume front with 300m of start though may be zapped early by one of the two drawn outside him looking for pegs & trail).
It’s patently obvious to all and sundry that one of the most exciting young trotters in Australian Harness history, KEAYANG ZAHARA (4) seems almost certain to maintain her undefeated status following tonight’s Vic Trotters Oaks and making coin from the contest won’t be easy. I’m leaning toward two Trifectas. The main one with VIOLET STANFORD (13) to finish second with JILLIBY BALLERINI (3), MAORIS MAC (11) and PINNIE (12) for third and then a significant saver switching that combo around. You probably shouldn’t miss playing this way though I also cannot guarantee a significant profit even by getting a result one way or the other.
J-BON’S $500 GAME PLAN FOR VIC CUP NIGHT
Race 1
$80 Bundle Bet: ALDEBARAN VERA (3) & KEAYANG STUKA (4) @ $2.39
Race 5
$80 WIN BEST DEAL (2) @ $2.1
Race 6
$30 EW PERFECT CLASS (10) @ $16/$4
Race 9 – MONEY RACE (Trifectas)
4/ 13/ 3,11,12: $36 gets 1200%
4/ 3,11,12/ 13: $20 gets 666.67%
NONOQUADS ($224)
2/ 1,2,6,8,10,12,13/ 2/ 5 ($17.50 gets 250%)
2/ 1,2,6,8,10,12,13/ 2/ 2,3,9 ($21 gets 100%)
2/ 1,2,6,8,10,12,13/ 2/ 4,7,10,11 ($14 gets 50%)
2/ 1,2,6,8,10,12,13/ 3,6,8,11,12/ 5 ($35 gets 100%)
2/ 1,2,6,8,10,12,13/ 3,6,8,11,12/ 2,3,9 ($52.50 gets 50%)
2/ 1,2,6,8,10,12,13/ 3,6,8,11,12/ 4,7,10,11 ($35 gets 25%)
3,6,8,11/ 1,2,6,8,10,12,13/ 2/ 5 ($14 gets 50%)
3,6,8,11/ 1,2,6,8,10,12,13/ 2/ 2,3,9 ($21 gets 25%)
3,6,8,11/ 1,2,6,8,10,12,13/ 2/ 4,7,10,11 ($14 gets 12.5%)
Codes’ Best Bet
Value ($15 each-way)
Race 3 No.8 Rakero Rebel $7
Race 1 No.3 Aldebaran Vera $6
Race 2 No.9 Bulletproof Boy $19
Codes’ Multi ($20 outlay)
Race 4 No. 4 Just Believe $1.30 (win)
Race 8 No.5 Exotic Bushranger $2.6
Race 9 No. 4 $1.04
(Combined $3.51)