Melton Preview – May 25, 2024
Jason Bonnington’s Preview
1WATTS UP PARTYTIME7SHESAWISH9LOVE GUN3EBONYS AVENGER8SHES RUBY ROO4HOT TO TROT NZ5HAMMERS LAW11SUNDONS COURAGE10LADY ADELIA6LOCKSLEY LOVERWhile it’s far from set in stone, sometimes you’ve got to trust your map & punt accordingly. From there it’s a simple equation with feast or famine results. If you get it right, there’s a potential killing to be made. If you’re wrong, there’s no easy escape. My map, as outlined above, suggests WATTS UP PARTYTIME (1) may or may not be crossed early but should be in front after 400m regardless. He’s no moral but the $4 is good enough for a moderate wager and something less Each Way on SHESAWISH (7) is also advised at big odds on the proviso you believe – as I do – that my mate Nath will chance his arm at start. Keep your ears close to the ground for tactical updates as always.
1SEVE NZ8OPERATIVE LINE13HOT DEAL4ISTHISJUSTFANTASY9STIR ME UP3JILLIBY SELWOOD5CEMETERY BAY11SPYGLASS NZ12DHAULAGIRI NZ7MIRAKURU6CLYMENUS NZIt’s another case of picking your cartographical poison here as only two horses can lead in SEVE (1) or ISTHISJUSTFANTASY (4) and given SEVE (1) is racing well and has won 2 from 3 in front on Aussie soil I suspect he will hold the top. Whoever leads, it’s unlikely they’ll get the easiest time in front given HOT DEAL (13) was super fresh, loves racing tough & should whip around at Dunny’s earliest possible. As a result, I’m quite keen on OPERATIVE LINE (8) though they’re onto us here and we won’t be getting the $16 offered on harness.org.au or anything resembling that. He lobbed the trail two back before going within an extended whisker of beating Captain Hammerhead in 1:55.3 over this track/trip and his last start 7th was better than it sounds. If you also have the pole holding up the other small investment worth considering is STIR ME UP (9) Place Only from 3 poles as he loves a soft trip and can pick up quickly when the trigger is pulled.
9CAPTAIN HAMMERHEAD4SKINNYDIP NZ6UBETCHA TIGERPIE7ROARFORROSCOE1NIKI NAH NAH2HEAVENLY CHARM5COURAGEOUS SAINT8RADIUS10FINAL COLLECT NZ11TERRY NZ12JILLIBYJACKSPARROW3THE CHANCERThe current quote I’ve seen for CAPTAIN HAMMERHEAD (9) here is $2 and that’s just seductive enough to lure me in. I have him taking off early on and relieving SKINNYDIP (4) of the top. If that transpires, he’s probably a $1.40-$1.50 chance and even if not, his class edge remains significant. He is my BEST on the card.
1LIBBY LOU8PERPETUITY5EUREKA JO9OUR ULTIMATE LUKA4SOHO VESPER LIND6EYE CAN TRY10BOLERO11VAGUE BEAUTY7BOULEVARDOFDREAMSOn early inspection, tonight’s first APG Gold Bullion feature looks every bit the peg-dominated Money Race that Codes plumped for on our Tongue Tie Off Vodcast premiere. And it might turn out that way with LIBBY LOU (1) leading throughout and PERPETUITY (8) primed to finish second (or perhaps knock the fave off right on the wire. My concern is that with 150 large on the line and several runners from one camp that EUREKA JO (5) may drill from the breeze and help set the type of tempo that could warp the narrative. I still haven’t decided to play anything here but VAGUE BEAUTY (11) was huge in her heat and if they sever the timepiece she may be worth an EW, 1x whatever or even Place Only wager at something like $13/$3.
5SOHO SPECTRE3RAVISHING SLOY7DEE ROE4IDEAL TIMING1ALOT LIKE LOUIE2RUDY GEE9WAR DAN BUDDY10CARRAMAR OLAM11HUMBLE6LETTUCE NIPYAA bit like the first event, I’m sticking fat with my preferred Atlas here in the knowledge that my fate may be sealed soon after the start. There has been early cash for RAVISHING SLOY (3) which could indicate they’re keen to hold the front, but the camp is hardly averse to backing their own regardless and they may be confident of winning from a trail behind SOHO SPECTRE (5) as they’ve done in the past. Ultimately, I expect that Sloy pings to the pegs then relents to Spectre. If that happens, they’ll almost certainly finish 1-2 with Spectre heavily favoured to prevail. This means we have a nice little Money Race on our hands based around 5/3/1,7,9 for the lion’s share supported by savers on 3/1,7,9/ 5 and 5/ 1,7,9/ 3. If you wanted to get even more aggressive you could remove DEE ROE (7) from those combos or add to staggers by having much less on him to make the dais.
1THE LOST STORM8SUPREME DOMINATOR NZ12TANGO TARA NZ3ULTIMATE VINNIE9CURLY JAMES10SEW WHAT11SAHARA TIGER2KOSIMO4YAMBUKIAN13TRIPLE EIGHT NZ7PERFECT STRIDE NZ6IDEAL ESCAPEOn paper this open class event looks a stone-cold, dyed in the wool Money Race bonanza. The only question for punters is how aggressive they play. Plainly put, THE LOST STORM (1) leads on his ear and given his class it’s unlikely there’ll be any heat to speak of. That means SUPREME DOMINATOR (8) from the trail and CURLY JAMES (9) from 3 poles should land minor medals with the only other possible medallists – bronze more likely than silver – being TANGO TARA (12), TRIPLE EIGHT (13) and PERFECT STRIDE (7) though all are drawn so woefully that their assignments appear enormous from off-pegs in a contest where the last half will likely snap the semaphore board.
1SCHWARZ2STORMY WOODS7FORTY LOVE3SPLASH OF PAYNT8OZZIE CORKA4CMON SHARKY5COASTAL DRIVE6HESITATENot keen to play here much at all. If you were able to get the $5.50 or anything within a 50-mile radius of that about HESITATE (6) then well done as he’s the clear and obvious benchmark but that won’t be there for you today. If you did scoop of those amazing overs, then you could possibly lay off on SCHWARZ (1) but maybe not as well.
Race 8
No map here as too tricky.
I haven’t bothered with the map here as it’s quite tricky but I’m confident the speed will be genuine regardless and the way FULLOFMISCHIEF (13) went fresh in his heat combined with his talent when on song I’m making him the BEST ROUGHIE all night and well worth a wager either EW or 1 x dealer’s choice.
Race 9
No map here as too tricky.
No map again for the get-out stakes and probably no bet either. I was keen on backing COUNTESS CHIRON (2) EW after seeing her $34 quote via the HRV guide but after winning on Thursday at The Home of the Trotter (Maryborough) her price isn’t going to be near that and my tyres have been deflated as a result.
Cody Winnell’s Game Plan
Race 1
Tipping LOVE GUN (9) but with no great level of confidence. SHESAWISH (7) is over the odds for the place at $3 (was closer to $4 when Bon and I both agreed she could lead initially on the podcast). Respect WATTS UP PARTYTIME (1), EBONYS AVENGER (3), SHES RUBY ROO (8) and LADY ADELIA (10) — hence I’m not keen to play.
Game Plan: Nothing.
Race 2
Keen on ISTHISJUSTFANTASY (4) and rapt I was proven wrong with her opening $5.5 this morning. I thought she’d be closer to even money! There has been a huge go this morning for Bon’s pick OPERATIVE LINE (8), who got as short as $2.7 with one WSP. Might win but surely that’s too short. I’m keen to back ISTHISJUSTFANTASY (4) for the win.
Game Plan: $20 win ISTHISJUSTFANTASY @ $5
Race 3
CAPTAIN HAMMERHEAD (9) is the progressive horse and the class of this field, but I’m not going to jump into odds-on about him. I’ll have something small 1×5 on TERRY (11) at $26/$5 currently.
Game Plan: $2.5 win x $12.5 place TERRY (11)
Race 4
LIBBY LOU (1) looked impressive winning at Menangle in the heat and has the draw to attempt the repeat. There are obvious issues to that being as simple as that though, such as EUREKA JO (5) (well-backed into $3.2 currently) likely to push forward hard and fast, PERPETUITY (8) drawn the back of the fav and set up for the sprint-lane dive-bomb if they go quick, and VAGUE BEAUTY, who I mentioned was huge value at $13 on the podcast. The $13 is gone unfortunately, but still keen to have something each-way on VAGUE BEAUTY. I was going to play a trifecta, but I’ve gone cold on that! No rules here — so we can change our mind, so long as we put it on record. Consider this that!
Game Plan: $5 win x $25 place VAGUE BEAUTY (11) (currently $8.5/$2.1)
Race 5
Tipped ALOT LIKE LOUIE (1) on the pod when was $8.5. Feels a really good 1×5 go. This horse is a different horse at 3yo. Loving the recent form and should get a beautiful trip from the pole, regardless of what else happens early. Keen Louie! (**Tell me about a dream, Louis, your life’s an open magazine LOUIEEEE!!)
Game Plan: $10 X $40 ALOT LIKE LOUIE (1)
** reference to The Whitlams and their banger You Sound Like Louis Burdett
Race 6
THE LOST STORM (1) just wins here. I like Bon’s trifecta — refer to above. I’ll just go one-out the fav in the quad.
Game Plan: I’m just watching.
Race 7: Best bet all night is HESITATE (6). I rate this 2yo very highly. Surprised to see $2.25 available this morning.
Game Plan: $50 WIN HESITATE (6)
Race 8: Pod listeners will have heard Bon’s push for FULLOFMISCHIEF (13) and he won me over! But I can’t take any credit for simply being “won over” haha, so I’m invested but won’t be on my Game Plan.
Game Plan: Cheering on Bon’s FULLOFMISCHIEF (was $61 with S/Bet this morning!)
Race 9: Godspeed to all and to all a good night.
Game Plan: Nothing
Codes’ Game Plan Summary
R2 No.4 ISTHISJUSTFANTASY $20 WIN @ $5
R3 No.11 TERRY $2.5 WIN X $12.5 PLACE @ $26/$5
R4 No.11 VAGUE BEAUTY $5 WIN BY $25 PLACE @ $8.5/$2.1
R5 No.1 ALOT LIKE LOUIE $10 WIN BY $40 PLACE @ $6.5/$1.4
R7 No.6 HESITATE $50 WIN @ $2
Total spend: $165
Total return: ???