Melton Preview – June 8, 2024

Jason Bonnington’s Preview

RACE1
MELTONTAB LAZARUS FREE FOR ALL
EARLY SPEEDMODERATE
CONFIDENCE65%
1CURLY JAMES
9HEZA SON OF AGUN
11MACH DAN
6TANGO TARA NZ
10HELLUVA NZ
3SEW WHAT
7BULLETPROOF BOY
2SUPREME DOMINATOR NZ
4TRIPLE EIGHT NZ
5KOSIMO

MAP CONFIDENCE: 65-70% (That CURLY JAMES (1) will hold his rivals wide with SEW WHAT (3) only fly in ointment & TANGO TARA (6) the only other likely ‘go-forward’ runner off the front line given wonderful warrior BULLETPROOF BOY (7) is drawn to high-five Melton’s Sports Bar patrons fresh-up from a spell).

RACE5
MELTONBERALDO COFFEE PACE
EARLY SPEEDSOLID
CONFIDENCE65%
5OUR SAYDIE KAY
3CHEERSTOLOU
12EXOTIC BUSHRANGER
2BLASTER RANGER
1MATADOR NZ
9VICTORY GEORGE
8STYLISH GEM
4SILVER MYSTIQUE
6LOTTIE MOON NZ
10JACCKA CONNOR NZ
13SHADOW CELT
7YAPPAS COURAGE

MAP CONFIDENCE: 65-70% (That OUR SAYDIE KAY (5) will eventually work her way to the top end; the key query surrounding how much petrol will be required in the process).

80%+ (That EXOTIC BUSHRANGER (12) will be sent forward to keep the favourite honest, particularly if OUR SAYDIE KAY (5) takes a short while to assume the lead).

RACE6
MELTONALDEBARAN PARK TROT
EARLY SPEEDSOLID
CONFIDENCE70%
3HEPHAESTUS PHOENIX
1KEAYANG XENA
5HESALLMUSCLE NZ
4MERCENARY
8THE LOCOMOTIVE
2ZAREM
9HARRY STAMPER NZ
6LOCKSLEY LOVER
7LOVE GUN

MAP CONFIDENCE: 90% (That HEPHASTEUS PHOENIX (3) will find the front quite early in proceedings).

70-75% (That Snooze will keep the front once he finds it).

RACE7
MELTONAPG TROT
EARLY SPEEDSOLID
CONFIDENCE80%
6WATTS UP PARTYTIME
1I AM PEGASUS
12IMPERIAL MONARCH NZ
7HATCHBACK
8COPACABANA
3HAUTACAM
4EASY PICKINGS NZ
2WHOS THE MAN
9TWEEDLEDEE NZ
5ALL THE TRIX
10HOT TO TROT NZ
11GAELIC LAD

MAP CONFIDENCE: 80-85% (That WATTS UP PARTYTIME (6) will assume the leadership role following a short battle between 2 or 3 runners inside him to land trail behind fave in transit).

RACE10
MELTONNEVELE R STUD PACE
EARLY SPEEDMODERATE
CONFIDENCE70%
6OZZIE BATTLER
1CRIME WRITER
3JOHN MCLEAN NZ
2ALBY TWO CHAINS
8HEAVENLY CHARM
4TWISTED BLISS
5JILLIBY SELWOOD
7COURAGEOUS SAINT

MAP CONFIDENCE: 75% (That OZZIE BATTLER (6) will be launched early and cross to pegs. If he does cross, he’s likely to keep the top though circumstances could influence that decision).

60% (That CRIME WRITER will begin well enough to land trail behind either OZZIE BATTLER (6) (75%), ALBY TWO CHAINS (2) (20%), or JOHN MCLEAN (3) (5%).

Bon’s Game Plan

BEST (Two-race Win MULTI for $50)

Race 7 No. 6 WATTS UP PARTYTIME

Race 8 No. 12 CAPTAINS CATCH

MONEY RACES

Race 1 (Tricks)

1,9/ 1,9/ 3,4,5,6,10,11: $28 gets 200%

1,9/ 4,5,6,11/ 1,9: $10 gets 100%

1,9/ 3,10/ 1,9; $2 gets 50%

Race 9 (Tricks)

6,10/ 6,10/ 7,8,12: $24 gets 400%

6,10/ 6,10/ 1,4,5,9,11: $15 gets 150%

6,10/ 7,8,12/ 6,10: $9 gets 150%

6,10/ 1,4,5,9,11/ 6,10: $2 gets 20%

ROUGHIES

Race 2 No. 5 SHESAWISH

$5 Win & $15 Place

Race 3 No. 3 OPERATIVE LINE

$15 Win & $35 Place

STAGGERED OctoQUADS ($90)

5/ 3,8/ 6/ 12: $10 gets 500%

5/ 3,8, 6/ 5,13: $8 gets 200%

5/ 3,8/ 5,12/ 12: $8 gets 200%

5/ 5,9/ 6/ 12: $6 gets 300%

1,2,3,12/ 3,8/ 6/ 12: $16 gets 200%

1,5,12/ 3,5,8/ 6/ 12: $18 gets 200%

1,5,12/ 3,5,8/ 6/ 5,13: $12 gets 66.67%

1,5,12/ 3,5,8/ 5,12/ 12: $12 gets 66.67%


Codes’ Game Plan

Codes’ Game Plan for Melton June 8.

Race 1

Tipping CURLY JAMES (1) to lead with HEZA SON OF AGUN (9) leader’s back (unless there is a scratching and the emergency gains a start — which would throw our map out). This looks a good race for CURLY JAMES (1), who is proven this class, especially when able to get to the front. MACH DAN (11) is first-up and is a key player, along with HEZA SON OF AGUN (9) who has the ability and maps a treat under my scenario, if CURLY leads. SEW WHAT (3) is a quick beginner and there is some chance she throws a spinner in the works and finds the lead, though I think that’s an unlikely scenario. 

Top Tip: CURLY JAMES (1)
Game Plan: $25 Win CURLY JAMES ($2.6 on Sportsbet and Pointsbet @ 8am)

Race 2 

I’ve got ALDEBARAN VERA (2) on top but was hoping for a price and to play each-way. She opened $5, which would have been acceptable, but was quickly adjusted into $3.2 — and as of Saturday morning is into as skinny as $2.5 on Sportsbet. I think she’ll win but I won’t be playing as there’s just not enough meat on the bone at the price against nice opposition in SHES RUBY ROO (9), ROCKINWITHATTITUDE (10) and REVELSTOKE (8). 

Top Tip: ALDEBARAN VERA (2)
Game Plan: Watching. 

Race 3 

If FIRST DANCE (4) can head off OPERATIVE LINE (3) I think it’s her race to lose here. Form around Rakero Rebel and Ladies In Red is tip-top for this. Impossible to know whether we can make this a Game Plan play because the only provider up has the horse listed at $4, but I can’t get $1 on, so I won’t be promoting them in the slightest. I’ll set the rule below for whether or not we’re playing! 

Top tip: FIRST DANCE (4) 
Game Plan: $20 win FIRST DANCE (4)$4 with TAB 9.30am

Race 4 

I don’t think there is that much between SMOKEN ACE (11) and SOME AMERICAN (7), and the market may disagree here, which theoretically provides opportunity. The first-up run of SMOKEN ACE (11) was a total forget job. Chris Alford goes on tonight. Keen to play if the price is right. 

Top Tip: Scratched

Game Plan: Watching

Race 5 

SHADOW CELT (13) is underrated and after delivering for us in the Game Plan trifecta last Saturday, keen to have a nibble each-way tonight. Respecting EXOTIC BUSHRANGER (12), OUR SAYDIE KAY 5), and STYLISH GEM (8) at any old odds. 

Top Tip: SHADOW CELT (13) 
Game Plan: $5 X $15 SHADOW CELT 

Race 6 

Top Tip: THE LOCOMOTIVE (8) 
Game Plan: Just watching 

Race 7 

WATTS UP PARTYTIME (6) should be leading and once there will take a power of running down. Respect IMPERIAL MONARCH (12) and ALL THE TRIX (5) but keen to play the top pick if black and white figures. 

Top Tip: WATTS UP PARTYTIME (6) 
Game Plan: $50 WIN if ($2.3 TAB)

Race 8

Top Tip: CAPTAIN’S CATCH (12) 
Game Plan: Just watching 

Race 9 

Top Tip: OLD VILLA BOY (6) 
Game Plan: Just watching 

Race 10

Top Tip: JILLIBY SELWOOD (5)
Game Plan: Just watching

Codes’ Game Plan Summary
Race 1 No.1 Curly James $25 Win @ $2.6
Race 3 No.4 First Dance $20 Win (@ $4)
Race 5 No.13 Shadow Celt $5X$15 
Race 7 No.6 Watts Up Partytime $50 win ($2.3 TAB)
Quad: 5,8,12,13 / 3,5,8 / 5,6,12 / 12 $36 for 100%

Outlay: $151
Return: ???