Melton Preview – June 29, 2024
In this article:
Bon’s Preview for Melton
Race 1











MAP CONFIDENCE: 85-90% (That JILLIBYJACKSPARROW (3) will lead with CRIME WRITER (1) trailing, CAPTAIN HAMMERHEAD (5) breezing and FIAMMA (4) 1×1)
Often, when something appears too good to be true, it usually is. Hopefully that’s not the case with tonight’s opening map. On paper, JILLIBYJACKSPARROW (3) leads with CRIME WRITER (1) (trail) & KOSIMO (8) (3 poles) lobbing soft runs behind him on the pegs. All things being equal, CAPTAIN HAMMERHEAD (5) should then breeze with FIAMMA (4) enjoying one-one cover behind him. If that plays out, and the pace is anything short of crazy, then said quintet should dominate between them. I did toy with backing CRIME WRITER (1) 1×5 at a price & KOSIMO (8) place only; but settled on boxing all five in Tricks & F4’s hoping that those two runners can somehow provide the value required to make them profitable investments.
Race 2
The most predictable element of this fast class squaregaiting event is that the early pace SHOULD be frenetic with several fast beginners off the front, all of whom look likely to press their buttons off the arm. My top selection is ALDEBARAN VERA (2) but I won’t be getting involved unless her pace price drifts to even money, making the spectre of an Each Way wager genuinely tempting.
Race 3
I’ve often heard that punters relish anarchy and thrive upon variable-laden, unpredictable events. That might be true, but I’ve been punting for several decades & I am not among their brethren. That’s why I probably won’t invest here. If you did back likely leader SMART AND MIGHTY (2) at his opening quote of $7, then you’re very well placed, but he’s now $3.9 so the bird has well and truly taken flight. If S&M does lead and the tempo is moderate – which seems likely – then there’s an argument for having a small place-only wager on DUKES CHOICE (1) from the trail but it won’t be included among my Game Plan investments.
Race 4











MAP CONFIDENCE: 70%+ (That LOOK LIKE DIAMONDS (4) will assume control with those drawn inside happy to hand-up & those drawn outside lacking the pace to beat her off the arm).
I’ve wavered on the final leg of tonight’s Early Quad a few times, though my conviction that LOOK LIKE DIAMONDS (4) is the one to beat hasn’t. Given the fact those inside her would almost certainly relent and nothing outside should have the pace to strongly beat her out, I reckon Milesy’s talented mare is the very likely leader and given her gallant heat win from the breeze in a heat for this last time out, she can go much quicker again if out in front as expected. I’m also happy to have a marginal place-only wager on NAKULA (2) to place at good odds given her form is better than it reads & I have mapped her to cross the pole then trail LLD in transit.
Race 5











MAP CONFIDENCE: 90%+ (That SURFINGMAKESCENTS (4) will take control soon after start with most front row runners going back & those drawn inside keen to trail).
From the moment I mapped and analysed the opening leg of tonight’s Quad it had ‘Money Race’ written all over it. First, SURFINGMAKESSCENTS (4) looks the near-certain leader/clear top tip & we were never going to get near the website-price posted to make her straight out. Second, JOELITA (10) is a clear second pick and LE BELLE BIJOUX (11) an equally obvious third pegger. I have staggered Tricks up the Yin Yang here but when class disparities are as blatant as this, your options are bountiful.
Race 6










MAP CONFIDENCE: 75%+ (That SEQUENCE (5) will find the lead relatively soon after the mobile leaves with PICKET WIRE (3) likely to trail but LINK IN BIO (2) a small chance of holding that role).
The only runner half-standing in the way of SEQUENCE (5) finding the front and dominating this trotting mares’ decider was Dichotomy, and with her scratching it now seems set-in-stone that she’ll salute with ease unless there’s a significant change in tactics and she’s forced to work much harder than expected for the front. Typically, this would be an ideal ‘Money Race’ but I simply found it too tough narrowing the field of potential placegetters. I have had a small place-only wager on LINK IN BIO (2) who’s a small hope of lobbing the trail but should be three-poles at worst.
Race 7
If I was a slightly weaker man, I’d be shit-scared of the market-pounding directed toward SURFSUP TIGERPIE (4) in the third leg of tonight’s Quad. And, if I’m honest, it does worry me a touch. Bitter experience has taught me, however, that the moment you’re swayed by the opinions of others – and that’s all any major market move represents – you’re cooked. For mine, SURFSUP TIGERPIE (4) is far from assured of securing the painless lead I assume her backers are predicting, and, either way, CHIRRIPO (10) harbours a significant class edge over the field. She also gets the services of N Jack and follows out a fast beginner so I’m bullish she’ll get the job done. So much so, in fact, I’m running her heavily through Quads and backing her straight out at $2.5.
Race 8
If there’s one contest tonight, I’m leaving well alone, it’s this one. Anything could happen early, and every runner has some winning claims, which is why I’m playing the entire field on some level through my dozen Quad combos.
Race 9











MAP CONFIDENCE: 80%+ (That OOPZEE DAIZEE (4) will find a comfortable lead soon after the start).
My top tip in the final race is OOPZEE DAIZEE (4). A bit like her stablemate Surfingmakescents earlier in the night, she doesn’t need to fly off the gate, as the lead should be there regardless and the way she’s travelling at present, it’s tough to see her getting rolled with all of her serious threats drawn off the second row.
Bon’s $400 Game Plan
WIN BETS
Race 7 No. 10 CHIRRIPO ($30 Win @ $2.5)
Race 4 No. 4 LOOK LIKE DIAMONDS ($20 Win @ $2.6)
Race 9 No. 4 OOPZEE DAISY ($20 Win @ $2.40)
PLACE BETS
Race 4 No. 2 NAKULA ($10 Place @ $4.60)
Race 6 No. 2 LINK IN BIO ($10 Place @ $4.40)
MONEY RACES
Race 1
TRIFECTA
Boxed: 1,3,4,5,8 ($30 gets 50%)
FIRST 4
Boxed: 1,3,4,5,8 ($30 gets 25%)
Race 5
TRIFECTAS
4/ 10/ 11: $12 gets 1200%
4/ 11/ 10: $6 gets 600%
4/ 10,11/ 1,7,8,9: $32 gets 400%
10/ 4/ 11: $3 gets 300%
10/ 4/ 1,7,8,9: $4 gets 100%
4/ 1,7,8,9/ 10: $4 gets 100%
THE DODECAQUADS
4/ 5/ 10/ 2,6,7: $30 gets 1000%
4/ 5/ 10/ 1,9: $10 gets 500%
4/ 5/ 10/ 3,4,5,10,11: $10 gets 200%
4/ 5/ 1,3,4,6,8,11/ 2,6,7: $45 gets 250%
4/ 5/ 1,3,4,6,8,11/ 1,9: $15 gets 125%
4/ 5/ 1,3,4,6,8,11/ 3,4,5,10,11: $19 gets 63.33%
4/ 2,3,9,11/ 10/ 2,6,7: $24 gets 200%
4/ 2,3,9,11/ 10/ 1,9: $8 gets 100%
4/ 2,3,9,11/ 10/ 3,4,5,10,11: $8 gets 40%
10,11/ 5/ 10/ 2,6,7: $12 gets 200%
10,11/ 5/ 10/ 1,9: $4 gets 100%
10,11/ 5/ 10/ 3,4,5,10,11: $4 gets 40%
Codes’ Game Plan and Preview for Melton
CODES’ PREVIEW FOR MELTON
Race 1
Good race to open proceedings this week. CRIME WRITER (1) the value at $18/$3.1 with TAB for two reasons. One — I’ve blackbooked him after an eye-catcher last week. Reckon he’s going well. And two — he maps a treat here. Under my scenario, which has FIAMMA (4) working to the front and initial leader JILLIBYJACKSPARROW (3) taking cover, CRIME WRITER (1) lobs three-pegs. Under Jason Bonnington’s map, he’s leader’s; back behind JILLIBYJACKSPARROW (3). Regardless, in either of those scenarios, I think the $3.1 place represents great value and there’s an opportunity for a blow-out win result too. I do think FIAMMA (4), JILLIBYJACKSPARROW (3) and CAPTAIN HAMMERHEAD (5) on class are the major players, with CURLY JAMES (10) in it up to his eyeballs too, if he can get circumstances to suit from the awkward alley.
On-top tip: FIAMMA (4)
Codes’ Play: CRIME WRITER (1) $10 WIN x $30 PLACE @ $21/$4.4
Race 2
ALDEBARAN VERA (2) is an exciting trotter making her way through the classes. This is step up but her major dangers are drawn out the back, not racing their best, first-up, or a combination of these factors. I refer to ALDEBARAN ZEUS (8), ONE OVER ALL (9) and MUFASA METRO (10). ONE OVER ALL (9) actually can get a sweet trail through here, though there does look to be a bit of speed up the front. MUFASA METRO (10) has trialled up nicely and John Justice has always rated this top-liner as a VERY smart trotter. We know he is. I mentioned on the podcast that $5.5 was a good price ALDEBARAN VERA (2) and I was keen to play, but I’m softening slightly the more I look at this race as we get closer to race day. I’m actually warming to MUFASA METRO (10) potentially getting right over the top of them if the early speed is scorching! I’m going to sit this one out — but I’ll be kicking myself if ALDEBARAN VERA wins at the $5.5…
On-top tip: ALDEBARAN VERA (2)
Codes’ play: Please yourself
Race 3
SMART AND MIGHTY (2) is $7 on the race field prices. I’d like that to go each-way but I don’t think we’ll get it. If we do, I’d play. Has the gate speed to get to the front and has the form lines to win. Nice type. DUKES CHOICE (1) drawn for a beautiful trail if you’re a place punter. You might see an opportunity here if the price is right. Big watch on VEE EM GEE MACRAY (3) first-up. THESUNANDTHEMOON (6) was great to us last week but drawn out here. GHOST OF TIME (7) is an electric beginner but is drawn the car park. CEMETERY BAY (8) is going well of late and is capable of running into things if circumstances prevail. FIRST DANCE (9) and RORYVILLE (10) have claims, too. It’s wide-open isn’t it? SMART AND MIGHTY (2) the one I’m most interested in but I’d need to get each-way odds.
On-top tip: SMART AND MIGHTY (2)
Codes’ play: SMART AND MIGHTY $15 each-way @ $7/$2.60
Race 4
LOOK LIKE DIAMONDS (4) is a very smart pacer and look to find the lead here. From there she will take a stack of running down. That last win was tough. PERFECT IN PINK (8) is the main danger but drawn awkwardly in eight.
On-top tip: LOOK LIKE DIAMONDS (4)
Codes’ play: $30 WIN LOOK LIKE DIAMONDS @ $3.60
Race 5
SURFINGMAKESCENTS (4) is a really nice horse and I’m tipping Kez Manning to have a good night at Melton here. The heat win was dominant. Main danger is JOELITA (10) which will have to cover ground, so all signs point to Kez and Surf taking this one out. Likely to be odds-on, however, and I don’t launch into those.
On-top tip: SURFINGMAKESCENTS (4)
Codes play: Please yourself
Race 6
SEQUENCE (5) was terrific last time out and is drawn to find the top again here. James Herbertson is driving in super form and that only boosts confidence. RAPID RETURN (9) is the horse I’m eager to back on the each-way 1×3 basis though, if the price is right ($9 is listed at the HRV website). That would be a good price IMO and I’d happily play 1×3 if it were offered. The perils of doing a Game Plan tip on a Friday morning is that I don’t know the prices, but I’ll have to anticipate (and hope) that we get a reasonable quote because I’m including RAPID RETURN (9) in my plan.
On-top tip: SEQUENCE (5)
Codes’ play: $10 win X $30 place RAPID RETURN (9) @ $7.50/$2.05
Race 7
CHIRRIPO (10) is very smart and should find a way to win this race despite the back-row draw. Horses off the front line like SURFSUP TIGERPIE (4) for the in-form Mick Stanley stable, IMAGINATION ORO (5), and RUBY WINGATE (3) can all play roles. And so can YOU BEAUTY (11) despite the bad alley over the sprint trip. But CHIRRIPO (10) stands out.
On-top tip: CHIRRIPO (10)
Codes’ play: Please yourself — we’re well invested on favourite in my Quaddie.
Race 8
HOPPY (7) is the best horse in this race IMHO. KYVALLEY MAVEN (8) is also smart and is resuming from a tricky alley. These are the two major players and admittedly they’re drawn tough. That said, I’ve got them a couple of lengths clear of most of these at their best, so well attack quads that way. In the saver quads, I’ll be including DALEY WATERS (1), PREFERRED LOVE (2), ARGYLE ROCKS (4), MIDNIGHT EAGLE (5), EWING (6) and IKIGAI (9). IKIGAI (9) has plenty of talent but also a bagful of tricks. If trots throughout, could cause a boil over.
On-top tip: HOPPY (7)
Codes’ play: Please yourself
Race 9
OOPZEE DAIZEE (4) is the one here. Tipping another winner for Kez. Drawn better than major rivals in BELLE NEIGE (9), THE GIRLSGOTFLAIR (10) and ALDEBARAN BROOKE (11). If I got $2.5 or better I’d have a good go but I don’t think that’ll be available.
On-top tip: OOPZEE DAIZEE (4)
Codes’ play: $25 WIN OOPZEE DAIZEE @ $3.20
CODES’ $224 GAME PLAN (including Quads)
Race 1 No.1 CRIME WRITER $10 WIN X $30 PLACE @ $21/$4.40
Race 3 No.2 SMART AND MIGHTY $15 each-way $7/$2.60
Race 4 No.4 LOOKS LIKE DIAMONDS $30 WIN @ $3.60
Race 6 No.9 RAPID RETURN $10 WIN X $30 PLACE $7.50/$2.05
Race 9 No.4 OOPZEE DAISY $25 WIN @ $3.20
Quaddies ($59 outlay plan — adjust to suit budget responsibly)
4 / 5 / 10 / 7 $10 for 1000%
4 / 5 / 10 / 1,2,4,5,6,9 $6 for 100%
10,11 / 5 / 10 / 7 $5 for 250%
10,11 / 5 / 10 / 1,2,4,5,6,9 $6 for 50%
4 / 9,11 / 10 / 7 $5 for 250%
4 / 9,11 / 10 / 1,2,4,5,6,9 $6 for 50%
4 / 5 / 3,4,5,11 / 7 $6 for 150%
4 / 5 / 3,4,5,11 / 1,2,4,5,6,9 $6 for 25%
4 / 9,11 / 3,4,5,11 / 7 $5 for 62.5%
10,11 / 9,11 / 3,4,5,11 / 7 $4 for 25%