Melton Preview – June 22, 2024
Jason Bonnington’s Preview
7JILLIBYJACKSPARROW4OPERATIVE LINE9CAPTAIN HAMMERHEAD6RADIUS3NONPARREIL5TERRY NZ1NIKI NAH NAH10I CAST NO SHADOW NZ8SANDAY13SUPREME DOMINATOR NZ11KOSIMO12IDEAL ESCAPEMAP CONFIDENCE: 75-80% (That JILLIBYJACKSPARROW (7) will find his way to the front despite drawing out on ‘Ferris Rd’)
60-65% (That OPERATIVE LINE (4) will begin well enough to work past NONPARREIL (3) – who should easily cross the pole – before taking a sit on JILLIBYJACKSPARROW (7)).
100% (That CAPTAIN HAMMERHEAD (9) will be off and around them at Sal Moran’s earliest convenience – which should be made easier following through a quick beginner off the front row).
4ROADMASTER3EXOTIC BUSHRANGER9UBETCHA TIGERPIE6THE BEACH FANTASY NZ1SWIZZLESTICK2HIGH FLUX8ISTHISJUSTFANTASY5RORYVILLE7THE CHANCER11FINAL COLLECT NZ12LUDACROUS13VANQUISH STRIDE NZMAP CONFIDENCE: 75-80% (That ROADMASTER (4) will find his way to the front; the question being whether that happens in rapid fashion or if he’s forced to work for the privilege).
2VIRGINIA CLOWERS NZ1LADY ADELIA5ALDEBARAN MILEY7EBONYS AVENGER9REVELSTOKE3SHESAWISH4ALDEBARAN KEEPA NZ6COURMAYEUR10ALDEBARAN VERA11ROCKINWITHATTITUDEMAP CONFIDENCE: MINIMAL
4WATTS UP PARTYTIME2HATCHBACK9HARRY STAMPER NZ5HEPHAESTUS PHOENIX1TIPSY TURVY3COPACABANA10NEPHEW OF SONOKO8HESALLMUSCLE NZ6KEAYANG XENA7MERCENARYMAP CONFIDENCE: 90% (That they’ll fly early via one of the fastest front rows you’ll ever witness in any squaregaiting event).
70% (That WATTS UP PARTYTIME (4) can get past HATCHBACK (2) and hold some blazing beginners outside him into/coming out of the first turn)
7RAVISHING SLOY4ELUSIVE8BAY OF BISCAY5TILLY JAYNE1NETRA NZ2ROCKABILLY RINGO9OUR LUCIANO3FERRIGNO6SMOKEN ACE NZMAP CONFIDENCE: 90%+ (That plenty of front row runners will be set alight in the early stages).
70-75% (That RAVISHING SLOY (7) will charge out quickly enough from his extreme FR alley to head all-comers off early in proceedings).
3CARRAMAR OLAM8CREDULOUS13MY UNCLE STAN5WIND SOCK9ACE MONTANA4BARACK ENOBRAC10WINGATE GUY11CALEDONIAN RANGER12SILVER MYSTIQUE6ANIMADOMAP CONFIDENCE: 80-90% (That CARRAMAR OLAM (3) will keep the front from what is now the pole-marking draw).
JBON’S $370 GAME PLAN FOR MELTON
Sadly, despite last weekend’s Quad-based heroics, I’ve chose not to include the MAJOR Quad in tonight’s Game Plan. I have, however, taken a left-of-centre Early Quad leaving short-priced favourite Roadmaster out altogether in the hope that getting him beaten will ensure a profitable result should it transpire.
Race 2
OPERATIVE LINE (4) $35 PLACE @ $2.9
Trifectas
9/ 4,7/ 4,7,11: $20 gets 500%
9/ 4,7/ 1,3,8,13: $20 gets 250%
9/ 11/ 4,7: $5 get 250%
4,7/ 4,7,9/ 4,7,9,11: $8 gets 100%
4,7/ 4,7,9/ 1,3,8,13: $7 gets 58.33%
Race 5
WATTS UP PARTYTIME (4): $80 PLACE @ $1.7
Race 6
ROCKNROLL WALLA (11) $20 EW @ $8.5 & $3.1
Race 7
Trifectas
8/ 1,4,12/ 1,4,12: $30 gets 500%
8/ 1,4,12/ 3,5,9,10: $30 gets 250%
1,4,12/ 8/ 1,4,12: $6 gets 100%
1,4,12/ 8/ 3,5,9,10: $4 gets 33.33%
Race 10
Trifectas
11/ 10/ 6,7,8,9: $20 gets 500%
11/ 10/ 1,5,13: $6 gets 200%
11/ 6,7,8,9/ 10: $6 gets 200%
10/ 11/ 6,7,8,9: $6 gets 150%
10/ 11/ 1,5,13: $2 gets 66.67%
EARLY QUADS
2,3,9,10,11/ 9/ 3,8,9,11,12,13/ 2,10,11: $45 gets 50%
CODES’ $227 GAME PLAN AND MELTON PREVIEW
Race 1
With CAPTAIN HAMMERHEAD (1) the emergency and likely favourite IF gained a start, and drawn pole, this race was impossible to preview before right now — as we know the emergency now did not gain a start. Thus, I’ve done no form for this race & it’s not part of my action tonight.
Top tip: None
Game Plan: None
Race 2
CAPTAIN HAMMERHEAD (9) has a distinct class edge over his rivals in this despite the second-row draw. He’ll likely be short ($1.60), but should be winning.
Top tip: CAPTAIN HAMMERHEAD (9)
Game Plan: None
Race 3
ROADMASTER (4) was so good to us last week with a commanding first-up win at big odds. Tonight he’s been backed as though unbeatable in early markets for this final. I’ve got him on top but he’s too short to back IMHO. SWIZZLESTICK should be able to secure a soft peg-line trip, either behind ROADMASTER, or possibly behind ROADMASTER and EXOTIC BUSHRANGER (3) depending on how quick those drivers come off the arm. SWIZZLESTICK is going super and whilst I won’t be suggesting he’s a likely winner at the $21 on offer, as mentioned on the podcast the $4.2 the place on Sportsbet is simply too big a price not to have a lash.
Top tip: ROADMASTER (4)
Game Plan: SWIZZLESTICK (1) $30 the PLACE at $4.2
Race 4
ALDEBARAN VERA (10) has opened a nice price at $3.8. I think the winner comes from either her or ROCKINWITHATTITUDE (11). You could bundle the pair but be warned if the market moves immediately on VERA, the value is unlikely to be there.
Tip tip: ALDEBARAN VERA (10)
Game Plan: Please yourself
Race 5
HESALLMUSCLE (8) deserves to be the clear favourite but at $41 and $6, I’ll be having a dart throw at HATCHBACK (2). Best draw for a while, and with the favourite drawn awkwardly and a bit of speed likely at the top end, if HATCHBACK (2) can find the pegs and take cover behind perhaps WATTS UP PARTYTIME (4), I don’t mind our chances of finding a spot on the podium at big odds — and perhaps even having a shot at a blow-out.
Top tip: HESALLMUSCLE (8)
Game Plan: HATCHBACK (2) $5 win X $15 place @ $41/$6
Race 6
ROCKNROLL WALLA (11) and SON OF MAC (6) are the major players in this for mine. ROCKNROLL WALLA has opened huge overs at $8.5 and $3.1. If you were lucky enough to grab some of that each-way, Godspeed to you! He has to start much shorter. SON OF MAC (6) is intriguing. Figure form not flash but clearly has more ability. The $4.6 available as I type feels a fair price.
Top tip: ROCKNROLL WALLA (11)
Game Plan: Please yourself
Race 7
THESUNANDTHEMOON (1) has had four goes from this draw for three wins and a third. In the astute Alex Ashwood camp, I’m tipping can hold the front. From there, the clear danger is on the back in ALOT LIKE LOUIE (8), who is odds-on. JBON threw up the possibility of IM WESLEY (4) ripping straight across the face of the field off the arm — and I’ve factored one of my tricks into that scenario just in case, though I am in the corner of THESUNANDTHEMOON leading and taking a stack of running down.
Top tip: THESUNANDTHEMOON (1)
Game Plan: Trifectas $24 spend:
1-4-8 boxed $6 for X1
1,8 / 1,8 / 3,5,9,10,11,12 $12 X1
1,8 / 3,5,9,10,11,12 / 1,8 $6 for 50%
Race 8
BAY OF BISCAY (8) is an exciting pacer and this is a ripping field, with RAVISHING SLOY (7) the likely leader despite the wide gate (with a commanding record in front), and SMOKEN ACE (6) untapped. As a betting race, I’m sitting this one out. I am confident it’ll be a nice form reference moving forward.
Top tip: BAY OF BISCAY (8)
Game Plan: Please yourself
Race 9
If CARRAMAR OLAM (3) leads, which I think it will, then CREDULOUS (8) secures the gun leader’s back trip most likely. SILVER MYSTIQUE (12) and my Black Booker — who got up at $4 at Cranbourne for us last Sunday! Good times — MY UNCLE STAN (13) are the class runners of the race. I think it’s between those four, with very minor place hops to ANIMADO (6) should it get a nice trip.
Top tip: MY UNCLE STAN (13)
Game Plan: Exotics ($126 spend)
Trifecta: 12,13 / 3,8,12,13 / 3,6,8,12,13 $54 for 300%
Trifecta: 3,8 / 3,8,12,13 / 3,6,8,12,13 $36 for 200%
First 4: 12,13 / 3,8,12,13 / 3,6,8,12,13 / 3,6,8,12,13 $36 for 100%
Race 10
BERRIESANDCHERRIES (11) is the top pick but I don’t have a firm enough opinion on the race to play.
Top Tip: BERRIESANDCHERRIES (11)
Game Plan: Please yourself
CODES’ GAME PLAN SUMMARY
Race 3: SWIZZLESTICK (1) $30 the PLACE at $4.2
Race 5: HATCHBACK (2) $5 win X $15 place @ $41/$6
Race 7: Trifectas ($24 spend) —
1-4-8 boxed $6 for X1
1,8 / 1,8 / 3,5,9,10,11,12 $12 X1
1,8 / 3,5,9,10,11,12 / 1,8 $6 for 50%
Race 9: Exotics ($126 spend)
Trifecta: 12,13 / 3,8,12,13 / 3,6,8,12,13 $54 for 300%
Trifecta: 3,8 / 3,8,12,13 / 3,6,8,12,13 $36 for 200%
First 4: 12,13 / 3,8,12,13 / 3,6,8,12,13 / 3,6,8,12,13 $36 for 100%
QUADDIE: 2,4,8 / 2,6,8,11 / 1,4,8 / 6,7,8 $27 for 25%
Total outlay: $227