Melton Preview – June 15, 2024
In this article:
Jason Bonnington’s Preview
Bon’s “Speedmaps” and “Data Snaps”
Race 1
3PERFECT CLASS2TANGO TARA NZ9YAMBUKIAN4BACH NZ1ULTIMATE VINNIE5DHAULAGIRI NZ8KOSIMO13JILLIBYJACKSPARROW10LIKE A WILDFIRE NZ11TRIPLE EIGHT NZ6BULLETPROOF BOY7JUSTALITTLESIP NZMAP CONFIDENCE: 80% (That there’ll be enough early heat between ULTIMATE VINNIE (1), TANGO TARA (2) & PERFECT CLASS (3) to ensure a slick old Lead Time).
65-70% (That PERFECT CLASS (3) will, at some point, find the front in transit).
Race 1 – Data Snap
LIKE A WILDFIRE (10)
Aussie Record Fresh from break longer than 6 weeks: 13 starts 9 wins 1 placing (69.2% Win Record)
Race 2
4ALOT LIKE LOUIE3OURMATEMENKO NZ7NOSWEETSFORYOU6THE ONLY DECISION NZ2SHADOW CELT9COTCHINELLIE1STAG PARTY NZ10LOTTIE MOON NZ8LENARD ESS11CHANGEOVER GIRL12BLASTER RANGER13THE SPORTZ STARMAP CONFIDENCE: 70% (That OURMATEMENKO (3) will be first to pegs).
55%-60% (That ALOT LIKE LOUIE (4) will take over at some juncture)
Race 2 – Data Snap
OURMATEMENKO (3)
Record Leading: 8 starts 7 wins (87.5% Win Record)
Record Trailing: 4 starts 2 wins 2 placings (100% Place Record)
Race 3
5ELUSIVE1SWIZZLESTICK11PERFECT IN PINK6SMOKEN ACE NZ8EXOTIC BUSHRANGER3SETTEBELLO9LAYDEN2CLEAR LEFT NZ10MISS IDAHO7SPIRIT OF PEARLMAP CONFIDENCE: 75-80% (That ELUSIVE (5) will find her way to the pylons and have options once she does).
Race 3 – Data Snap
ELUSIVE (5)
Record Leading: 7 starts 4 wins 3 placings (57.14% Win Record & 100% Place Record)
Race 4
4THE BEACH FANTASY NZ2ROADMASTER7SON OF MAC NZ3CLYMENUS NZ1HUGO ROCKS10CEMETERY BAY8THE CHANCER9GAWN5JACCKA CONNOR NZ6BETTER DAYMAP CONFIDENCE: 75% (That ROADMASTER )2) will find the early lead though what happens from there is a mystery with THE BEACH FANTASY (4) & SON OF MAC (7) both possessing good gate speed but Roadmaster’s intentions unknown (market).
Race 4 – Data Snap
ROADMASTER (2)
Record Leading OR Trailing: 5 starts 3 sins 2 placings (160% Win Record & 100% Place Record)
Race 5
7VIRGINIA CLOWERS NZ3COPACABANA10IRON LOVE4SER PATRICK1KYVALLEY HEIST NZ6ZAREM2WHOS THE MAN5SON OF A SUN NZ8MAJESTICAL BELLE9ILLAWONG STARDUST12LADY ADELIA11ALDEBARAN KEEPA NZRace 6
2OZZIE BATTLER1RORYVILLE6HITTHEROADJACK NZ3MAJOR MANBAR8ISTHISJUSTFANTASY4LAST OF THE MOHICANS NZ9ROCKNROLL WALLA5JOHN MCLEAN NZ7DIAMOND ECLIPSEMAP CONFIDENCE: LIMITED (Clearly most believe that RORYVILLE (1) will hold up early but with the favourite flush on his back David Moran has multiple options which also include trailing in transit or allowing himself to be crossed then attempting a rapid re-take).
Race 6 – Data Snap
RORYVILLE (1)
Record from Pole: 3 starts 2 wins 1 placing (66.67% Win Record & 100% Place Record)
Race 7
4LUDACROUS2FIRST DANCE NZ3RADIUS8IDEAL ESCAPE1COURAGEOUS SAINT5DENIS WILLIAM6VANQUISH STRIDE NZ7SANDAYMAP CONFIDENCE: Almost 100% (That either FIRST DANCE (2) or LUDACROUS (4) will lead with a 65% vs 35% edge leaning the way of LUDACROUS (4)).
Race 8
4UBETCHA TIGERPIE1MAGNETIC TERROR NZ7FINAL COLLECT NZ3CRIME WRITER8I CAST NO SHADOW NZ2NIKI NAH NAH5TERRY NZ6NONPARREILRace 9
7LADIES IN RED4RAKERO REBEL NZ3PROMISELAND6SOHO HISTORIA8TREACHERY2HEAVENLY CHARM5SEW WHATMAP CONFIDENCE: 90% (That LADIES IN RED (7) will work her way to front)
70-75% (That RAKERO REBEL (4) can hold SOHO HISTORIA (6) through early burn & have the option of taking train on LIR just as she did last time out).
Race 10
1HAUTACAM2KEAYANG XENA11ALL THE TRIX5KYVALLEY PIERRO8VICI BLOOM6PICKET WIRE10MIELICKI4EL RESAMO9AARDIES PEAK NZ3ANTONOV NZMAP CONFIDENCE: LIMITED (Most will have KEAYANG XENA (2) finding the top but there’s speed across the front row and if HAUTACAM (1) gets headed it should be via Matt Craven’s call and not pure pace).
Race 10 – Data Snap
HAUTACAM (1)
Record Leading: 5 starts 3 wins (60% Win Record)
Race 11
6ALDEBARAN ZEUS4SLEEPEE7ONE OVER ALL NZ3LOVE GUN1EBONYS AVENGER5SUNDONS COURAGE2NEPHEW OF SONOKOMAP CONFIDENCE: 75-80% (That ALDEBARAN ZEUS (6) will ultimately find the front, either heading off SLEEPEE (4) (65%) or EBONYS AVENGER (1) (35%)
Race 11 – Data Snap
SLEEPEE (4)
Record Leading over Short Trip: 5 starts 3 wins 2 placings (60% Win Record & 100% Place Record)
Record Trailing: 9 starts 3 wins 5 placings (88.89% Place Record)
Bon’s race by race preview and Game Plan
Race 1
All signs suggest there’ll be genuine venom through the first 400-600m of tonight’s Italian Cup. The only way the script gets flipped is if ULTIMATE VINNIE (1) holds TANGO TARA (2) early doors, Tara pulls out of the war and then Vinnie accepts rapid respite trailing PERFECT CLASS (3). If that transpires then PERFECT CLASS (3) shouldn’t get rolled. In any other scenario they’ll break 44 – perhaps 43 – seconds for the Lead Time and, knowing the leaders are wounded, it’s unlikely the pressure will cease. Ultimately, that’s great news for both LIKE A WILDFIRE (10) and TRIPLE EIGHT (11). Top fluc is long gone for both but they each remain backable at $5.5 & $7.5 respectively.
Race 2
One technique I’ve employed at times when a certain runner stands out, but the map is somewhat unpredictable goes a little like this. In this event, that standout runner is ALOT LIKE LOUIE (4) and the process requires us to mark him at two separate prices. One price if he leads, and another if he doesn’t. I reckon if he finds the front – without busting a boiler – Louie looks a $1.50 chance. If he doesn’t, that price goes out to $2.80. Then we analyse the likelihood of both scenarios. Everyone will have a different take, but I’d say he’s a 60/40 hope of landing the top at some juncture. The equation then, looks much like this; .67 ($1.5) x .6 (60%) = .402 + .35 ($2.8) x .4 (40%) = .14. Together this equals .542 or 54.2% which is close enough to $1.85. As a result, I’m looking for, perhaps $2 to tempt me into straight-out crack. If we don’t get that then weighted Exactas heavily favouring Louie to win with 1,2,3 for second and smaller Exactas with 1,2,3 to beat Louie might prove the more lucrative play.
Race 3
Former Kiwi CLEAR LEFT (2) first-up in Oz for Team Douglas creates some confusion here, as does the fact that every runner engaged possesses talent/form or both. Nevertheless. With her brilliant gate speed, I’m leaning toward ELUSIVE (5) delivering her second pillar-to-post triumph in succession. Class-wise, her chief threat is SMOKEN ACE (5) but after a torrid fresh run was followed by being scratched from his most recent assignment it feels doubtful that bloke would go pedal on metal with bigger fish to fry. We’ll still need better than $3 to get enthused but it’s well worth rolling the dice if that’s available.
Race 4
Wasn’t enthused to play in this event at all but GAWN (9) has opened $2.80 and that’s tempting enough to bring me in from the dark. ROADMASTER (2) has huge upside and enough early pace to find the pegs and have options thereafter, while both THE BEACH FANTASY (4) & SON OF MAC (7) have enough early pace to significantly influence the contest either way, so the favourite is no moral but, again, the price here is key. If you’re strong on ROADMASTER (2) leading & holding (market flucs will likely be your guide) he’s the X-Factor but if they don’t come for him our confidence about GAWN (9) only grows. The only other possible, but unlikely options are place-only investments on HUGO ROCKS (1) and THE CHANCER (8) but they’d want to offer far juicier rewards than currently available.
Race 5
I would honestly love to help here; problem is I’m confident I can’t. If they let me on at $4 then I’d be hard pressed not to back VIRGINIA CLOWERS (7) given I love the mare, she loves these conditions, and you can forget she went around last time out. $3.5 might do it truth be told.
Race 6
Remember our elegant little equation from earlier in the card? Let’s try it again. The way I see it, if RORYVILLE (1) holds the top from gate one & ISTHISJUSTFANTASY (8) lands the trail then the latter horse is a genuine $1.30 (78%) chance. If Sal Moran lets one past and sits trail with RORYVILLE (1) leaving Fantasy 3 poles, she’s a $2.20 (45%) hope. And if the polemarker lets one past then re-takes the top creating a healthy gap between he and Fantasy, she’s a $3 (33%) chance. I’m so confused about what transpires I’m weighting all three scenarios as equally likely, so here goes nothing. .78 x .33 (.257) + .45 x .33 (.149) + .33 x .33 (.109) + .514 (51.4%). This makes ISTHISJUSTFANTASY (8) a $1.95 hope in theory and I’d very happily take $2 if offered the privilege, though that seems unlikely at present.
Race 7
The third leg of the Quad is a tricky little diva. Essentially, there are two potential mapping scenarios with wildly divergent ramifications. If FIRST DANCE (2) leads and holds then there are four, perhaps five winning hopes. If the Candyman hands up to LUDACROUS (4) – or that girl simply crosses through pure speed – then she is very near a moral. Pick your poison. It would seem cruel to expose readers to another % based price equation, so I won’t. I will, however, say this. Given LUDACROUS (4) is, as I mentioned, very near a lock if she leads AND remains a strong wining chance even if she doesn’t, something around $2.40 (currently $2.10) would be enough for me to play; particularly given the fact I think she’s more likely to find the front than not.
Race 8
His slight lack of genuine early speed makes it tough to ever truly declare UBETCHA TIGERPIE (4) but if you took a breather from map-mania and simply punted on form he has surely got these covered. So clear is his edge, in fact, that there’s every chance that absence of initial zip may not preclude him ultimately finding the top. As is the theme in many races tonight, if Tigerpie DOES lead, they simply won’t beat him, and even if he DOESN’T lead, he’s still the one to beat. All told, something around $2.20 would be enough to lure me in.
Race 9
Despite the seemingly cut-and-tried evidence tendered from their last clash here at Melton, there’s a nagging doubt in my mind that RAKERO REBEL (4) may flip the script and park once-in-lifetime mare LADIES IN RED (7) tonight. It’s unlikely to happen and wouldn’t stop LIR saluting but may influence the outcome of who hits the dais and in what order. That’s important, because I’m keen on staggering some nifty little tricks here and if Rebel leads then trails LIR, then the champ should beat the Rebel leaving us the freedom to fiddle around when finding who finishes third. Best placed to vie for Bronze Medal honours in that scenario are PROMISELAND (3) and TREACHERY (8) with lesser claims going to SEW WHAT (5) and SOHO HISTORIA (6).
Race 10
Punters have thrown themselves from rooftops to back ALL THE TRIX (11) at his first two Victorian starts without reward, but I don’t see them pulling up now. The draw is against, the trip is against and there’s a mysterious Kiwi invader with Andy Gath to worry about – along with the fact Trix made an early error last weekend. All of this may conspire to get him rolled again but if you can find the $5.5 available via the HRV website – or even half that quote – it’s strongly advised you wager early to avoid disappointment.
Race 11
If I had to bet blind, without seeing prices, almost nothing would inspire me to wager in tonight’s get-out stakes. And even with market knowledge, it’s unlikely I’ll be getting involved. Nevertheless, it does seem obscene that ALDEBARAN ZEUS (6) is $1.6 and ONE OVER ALL (7) is $2.6 after the latter monstered the former last time out. I get the 1720m & fitness factors, but I’d be stunned if that disparity holds up to race start. The 7-horse field & no third dividend also dims my temptation to back her EW but jeepers SLEEPEE (4) looks horribly disrespected at $21/$6 given she’s a multiple G1 winner that loves the short and possesses the pace to find the pegs first if anywhere near ready to roll
J-BON’s $300 GAME PLAN
RACE 1 – MULTIPLE PLAYS (Covering Map Scenarios)
BUNDLE BET: Like A Wildfire (10) & Triple Eight (11) – $33 @ $3.22
TRIFECTAS
3/ 10,11/ 2,4,8,9,10,11 ($20 gets 200%)
3/ 10,11/ 1 ($2 gets 100%)
3/ 2,4,8/ 2,4,8,9,10,11 ($15 gets 100%)
RACE 4
GAWN (9) $25 WIN @ $2.80
RACE 8
UBETCHA TIGERPIE (4) $40 WIN @ $2.70
RACE 9 – MONEY RACE (First 4’s)
7/ 4/ 3,8/ Field: $40 gets 500%
7/ 4/ 2,6/ Field: $16 gets 200%
7/ 3,6,8/ 4/ Field: $4 gets 33.33%
RACE 10
ALL THE TRIX (11) $35 WIN @ $3.80
QUADS
7/ 8/ 4/ 4: $5 gets 500%
7/ 8/ 4/ 3,6,7: $6 gets 200%
7/ 8/ 1,2,3,6/ 4: $10 gets 150%
7/ 1,9/ 4/ 4: $4.50 gets 150%
3,5,6,10,12/ 8/ 4/ 4: $10 gets 200%
7/ 8/ 1,2,3,6/ 3,6,7: $6 gets 50%
7/ 1,9/ 4/ 3,6,7: $2 gets 33.33%
7/ 1,9/ 1,2,3,6/ 4: $4 gets 50%
3,5,6,10,12/ 8/ 4/ 3,6,7: $7.50 gets 50%
3,5,6,10,12/ 8/ 1,2,3,6/ 4: $20 gets 100%
3,5,6,10,12/ 1,9/ 4/ 4: $5 gets 50%
Ludacrous (R7 No.4) is a key player at Melton tomorrow night. Picture: STUART McCORMICK (HRV)
Codes’ Preview & Game Plan for Melton
Race 1
TANGO TARA (2) ran a bottler in last year’s Italian Cup (fast-finishing fourth) and draws perfectly here to get his chance in this year’s renewal. From 2, I’m tipping Kate Gath will drive out hard, get to the pegs, then likely hand up to PERFECT CLASS (3). The latter is likely to cop some pressure from YAMBUKIAN (9) and LIKE A WILDFIRE (10) might be looking to get forward, too. But ultimately, TANGO TARA is the one all roads lead to and at $5.5/$2, he’s a great price for each-way players on a 1×5 basis.
Codes’ tip: TANGO TARA (2)
Suggested Play: $15 win X $60 place @ $5.5/$2 (TAB) TANGO TARA (2)
Race 2
If STAG PARTY (1) can hold up off the arm, I think Ellen Tormey would most want to hand up to talented ALOT LIKE LOUIE (4), whose class will carry him a long way here. I’m on the record for having an opinion of SHADOW CELT (2) also, but on map and class I think ALOT LIKE LOUIE rates clearly on top. SHADOW CELT (2), STAG PARTY (1) and OURMATEMENKO (3) are the other winning hopes, with a place chance to LENARD ESS (8) from three-pegs.
Codes’ tip: ALOT LIKE LOUIE (4)
Suggested play: Please yourself.
Race 3
SMOKEN ACE (6) and ELUSIVE (5) are the pacers with the highest potential ceiling in this event, especially with the scratching of the 11. ELUSIVE (5) found the front last time out and held off a smart pacer there, so a repeat of those tactics should be expected from Connor Clarke here. That would see SMOKEN ACE (6) likely parked. They can pair off and fight this out. I’m narrowly giving the nod to SMOKEN ACE (6) but not overly keen to bet. SWIZZLESTICK (1) should be running a place from the pole, but EXOTIC BUSHRANGER (8) is flying too and MISS IDAHO (10) obviously has a great record.
Codes’ tip: SMOKEN ACE (6)
Suggested play: Please yourself.
Race 4
ROADMASTER (2) is first-up from a spell, but overall form reads well for this and has had the benefit of a couple of recent nice trials. Has the gate speed to lead, then once there can either kick up or hand up to a chosen pacesetter (most likely either THE BEACH FANTASY (4) or GAWN (9). ROADMASTER (2) outsprinted the very talented CAPTAIN HAMMERHEAD last year, so historically his form reads very well. If CEMETERY BAY gets out to a silly place price, consider including him in exotics or a place play, as he’s racing well – but that one’s really for the daredevils only.
Codes’ tip: ROADMASTER (2)
Suggested play: $15 win x $60 place ROADMASTER (2) at $8/$2.7 on 365
Race 5
Standing start trot to kick off the quaddie! To quote the Simpsons gif, what a time to be alive 😉. No firm opinion on the race, but VIRGINIA CLOWERS (7) rates on top, with IRON LOVE (10) a chance and COPACABANA (3) the most likely blowout hope.
Codes’ tip: VIRGINIA CLOWERS (7)
Suggested play: Please yourself.
Race 6
ISTHISJUSTFANTASY (8) is an exciting south-west pacer with a commanding record. She’s drawn sweetly here. If RORYVILLE (1) leads, I think ISTHISJUSTFANTASY (8) will have it covered for speed up the straight. If something else leads, I’m tipping ISTHISJUSTFANTSAY (8) will find another way to win. In short, in the words of John Farnham, this time I’m playing to win.
Codes’ tip: ISTHISJUSTFANTASY (8)
Suggested play: Could bet win if evens or better about top pick but one-outing her in quads instead, given she’s odds-on in early market.
Race 7
I didn’t give SANDAY (7) much winning hope, but his scratching has cruelled me a tad here because I was keen to play an aggressive 1×5 on the pole horse COURAGEOUS SAINT (1). But with the dreaded NTD for third now, and with FIRST DANCE (2), LUDACROUS (3), VANQUISH STRIDE (6) and RADIUS (3) all going well enough to compete, suddenly, the Saint needs to finish 1-2 for a collect. In the event he’s big odds, and I hope he opens $14-plus, I’ll have a small each-way anyway because I suspect the race will be run to suit.
Codes’ tip: COURAGEOUS SIANT (1)
Suggested play: $10 each-way COURAGEOUS SAINT (1)
Race 8
UBETCHA TIGERPIE (4) is the obvious horse to beat here. Is racing in superb form and is one of the most improved horses in the country in the last nine months, thanks to the polish of exert horseman Mick Stanley. FINAL COLLECT (7) if $9-plus is my each-way play here. Forget the last run, had no luck, and form overall has been solid. He’s drawn in seven, but he’s the type of horse who has tactical speed and can negate that hurdle to some degree. If the price is right, we’ll have a small go.
Codes’ tip: UBETCHA TIGERPIE (4)
Suggested play: $10 each-way FINAL COLLECT (7) at $15/$3.6 on 365
Race 9
LADIES IN RED (7) should be winning. RAKERO REBEL (4) should run second or third. TREACHERY (8) and SEW WHAT (5) the other likely place hopes, along with SOHO HISTORIA (6).
Codes’ tip: LADIES IN RED (7)
Suggested play: Trifectas. 7/4/5,6,8 $30 for X10 and 7/5,6,8/4 $15 for X5
Race 10
ALL THE TRIX (11) has been heavily backed at both runs since joining Jess Tubbs. Expect same here. Should be hard to beat. AARDIES PEAK (9) first-up for Andy Gath obviously must be enormously respected. HAUTACAM (1) will get a gun run and can place. MIELICKI (10) is flying but do prefer from the stand. PICKET WIRE (6) is going well, too, and KEAYANG XENA is in the mix. Far too open for me to play.
Codes’ tip: ALL THE TRIX (11)
Suggested play: Please yourself.
Race 11
ALDEBARAN ZEUS (6) should be much fitter for the first-up run when ran out of fuel at the finish. ONE OVER ALL (7) is flying. They’re the obvious quinella. LOVE GUN (3) and SLEEPEE (4) most likely place hopes.
Codes’ tip: ONE OVER ALL (7)
Suggested play: Please yourself
CODES’ $300 GAME PLAN SUMMARY
R1: $15 win X $60 place @ $5.5/$2 (TAB) TANGO TARA (2)
R4: $15 win x $60 place ROADMASTER (2) at $8/$2.7 on 365
R7: $10 each-way COURAGEOUS SAINT (1) (play mid-tote… hoping for longer than $13 currently)
R8: $10 each-way FINAL COLLECT (7) $10 each-way FINAL COLLECT (7) at $15/$3.6 on 365
R9: Trifectas. 7/4/5,6,8 $30 for X10 and 7/5,6,8/4 $15 for X5
Quads
3,6,7,9,10 / 8 / 1,2,3,4,6 / 4 $50 for 200%
3,6,7,9,10 / 8 / 1,2,3,4,6 / 7 $15 for 60%
Total outlay: $300
Total return: ???