Melton Preview – June 1, 2024
Jason Bonnington’s Preview
1UBETCHA TIGERPIE8LA CAPTAIN7PERFECT CLASS5OUTLAW MAN NZ9ULTIMATE VINNIE2PLATINUM STRIDE NZ12BLITZERN6DISTRICT ATTORNEY3JUSTALITTLESIP NZ10DHAULAGIRI NZ13YAMBUKIANThe crucial mapping element I’m most confident about in tonight’s opening event is that red-figure favourite PERFECT CLASS (7) looks unlikely to find the front. On weights and balances UBETCHA TIGERPIE (1) should hold his rivals wide and is unlikely to yield that advantage if he does though he’s never led from 3 polemarking attempts. The other possible leader is OUTLAW MAN (5) who would also likely keep the top.
3ALDEBARAN ZEUS4MERCENARY8OLLIVICI NZ2GAELIC LAD1SUNDONS COURAGE5EBONYS AVENGER6NEPHEW OF SONOKO9ONE OVER ALL NZ7REVELSTOKEA small battle may take place between the two runners drawn inside of him – which GAELIC LAD (2) is favoured to win – but ALDEBARAN ZEUS (3) looks overwhelmingly likely to progress forward and fins the top with 400m of the start. OLLIVICI (8) should get off early inside of notable rogue ONE OVER ALL (9) and look to whip around in search of the breeze at Chris Lang’s earliest convenience.
7GAWN6ASMILEANDAWINX10OURMATEMENKO NZ2ROCKETS MATE1THE SPORTZ STAR3LENARD ESS8SHADOW CELT9AMORE ROCK11BEACH HOPPER NZ4LOTTIE MOON NZASMILEANDAWINX (6) can blast the gate, so he’s favoured to find the pegs first, but it won’t be long before GAWN (7) takes over and gets humming as is his typical pattern.
4KEAYANG TOKYO1CLYMENUS NZ6SHANLOU NZ2YOUNGGIFTEDANDBLACK NZ8LINCOLN RIVER NZ3STIR ME UP11I CAST NO SHADOW NZ5THE CHANCER9TERRY NZ10VANQUISH STRIDE NZHe has some quick beginners drawn inside of him, but KEAYANG TOKYO (4) can really blast the gate and should zip to an early lead with SHANLOU (6) probably forced to park despite occupying that role just once in nine starts for Emma Stewart.
Jason Bonnington’s $300 Game Plan
J -BON’S $300 GAME PLAN FOR MELTON
Rather than make individual notes for the very limited wagers outlined in tonight’s GP, given my major thoughts have been well espoused in this week’s edition on ‘Tongue Tie Off’ I will instead rip through some defining thoughts in dot-point form!
* As those that watched or listened to the Pod/Vod, I was keen to play in R1 (and had stats to support my case) but the inclusion of JIllyjacksparrow has muddied the waters. Nevertheless, a straight place bet on La Captain (8) still has some appeal at $3.2.
* Originally, I wanted to back Aldebaran Zeus straight out in the second – and if you got $3, or even money, well played. Given he’s now likely to start well in the Rosella, however, I’ve gone the MR route instead.
* On several levels, we’re all-in on Gawn in the fifth. If he wins – and he absolutely should – we’re well placed to profit. If not, heck will well and truly hit the motorised cooling instrument.
* Finally, if you’re a multi-maniac (I am not), then coupling Zeus & Gawn with your best sporting tips for the weekend is well and truly in play, but I’d advise to go early as both are quite likely to start shorter than what they’re showing this AM.
BEST (AT PRICE)
Race 9 No. 11 JAZSPUR
$30 Win (Hopefully $3 or better)
MONEY RACES
Race 2 (Tricks)
3/ 8,9/ 7,8,9: $36 gets 900%
3/ 8,9/ 2,4,5: $24 gets 400%
Race 5 (Tricks)
7/ 10/ 6,11: $40 gets 2000%
7/ 6,11/ 10: $20 gets 1000%
7/ 10/ 1,2,3,4,8: $30 gets 600%
STAGGERED QUADS ($120)
7/ 4,5,6,7,11/ 2,10,11/ 4: $52.50 gets 300%
7/ 4,5,6,7,11/ 2,10,11/ 8,10: $20 gets 75%
7/ 4,5,6,7,11/ 4,5,7,8/ 4: $20 gets 100%
7/ 4,5,6,7,11/ 4,5,7,8/ 8,10: $10 gets 25%
7/ 3,8,9/ 2,10,11/ 4: $9 gets 100%
7/ 3,8,9/ 2,10,11/ 8,10: $4.50 gets 25%
7/ 4,5,6,7,11/ 2,10,11/ 1,2,3,6: $4 gets 6.67%
J-Bon’s Race by Race Preview for Melton June 1
Race 1
It’s a sad story this one. First world sad, but sad just the same. As outlined on the TTO Vod/Pod, I found PLENTY of reason to back LA CAPTAIN (8) but yesterday’s scratching of Platinum Stride tore my plans asunder. If he somehow got the trail or even 3 pegs run, he seemed certain to receive that fellow is still in the mix but with JILLIBYJACKSPARROW (4) now favoured to find the pegs first the big beneficiary may be OUTLAW MAN (5) who is a great chance of working on to the front. I’m still keen to risk favourite PERFECT CLASS at his red-figure quote.
Race 2
As outlined on this week’s edition of ‘Tongue Tie Off’, ALL the stats pint toward an ALDEBARAN ZEUS (3) triumph in almost pillar-to-post fashion. If you got the early prices ($3 or even $2) well played. Those that didn’t may need to play exotics to extricate value, and the ways we plan to do that can be found in my Game Plan.
Race 3
In contests like this, where all the class is drawn poorly, it’s natural to expect plenty of colour and movement. But it doesn’t always happen. If there’s a genuine tempo and moves galore as expected, then ROCKNROLL WALLA (13) is the one to beat just clear of DUKES CHOICE (12) and LAYDEN (11) but all three runners are at their right quotes.
Race 4
Can’t say I have much to offer here. If MOONWALKA (1) holds up or re-takes the top with little effort, he’ll be tough to roll. If life gets a little wilder ALDEBARAN MILEY (13) has the class to make a mid-race move and prove superior. You can back both right now and come out ahead but I’m not likely to do so myself.
Race 5
If my map is correct then GAWN (7) will take the top from ASMILEANDAWINX (6) at some early juncture then set a tempo which should leave his rivals gasping, The second best horse IMO is OURMATEMENKO (10) and ASMILEANDAWINX (6) should get the gun trail. I have chosen this contest as a Game Plan Money Race.
Race 6
Literally anything could win tonight’s Sweetheart Trot Final and we’re playing very wide through this Quad leg as a result. If you have a favourite, back them, but this event will only have wagering, interest in my life via the Quad mentioned above and detailed in this week’s Game Plan.
Race 7
I have long held a serious opinion of VIRGINIA CLOWERS (11) and she’s proven her value in recent outings. I’m confident she’s the one to beat but LADY ADELIA (10) looks the big EW overs at $13 for those keen on a throw at the stumps in what looms as a typically tough SS affair.
Race 8
KEAYANG TOKYO (4) looks the absolute obvious here but Holy Lord he’s come up short. If you love a touch of danger in your life, you could add him to a Multi Menage-a-Trois with Aldebaran Zeus and Gawn, but I’m opting to play heavily through him in Quads with respect for VANQUISH STRIDE (10) in particular, and LINCOLN RIVER (8), just in case there’s a little more early-heat than most of us expect.
Race 9
As is the case with many races tonight, this penultimate event has several moving parts and a problematic element of unpredictability. Nevertheless, JAZSPUR (11) has always been a nice horse and he’s developed into a genuine winner. As a result, I’m making him by Best Bet over $2 on the card and will be backing him through my Game Plan as well.
Race 10
Look, I’ll enjoy watching this Sapling Stakes for the Freshman Fillies, but with such little exposure across the board, I can only advise punters to watch markets and move quickly should they recognise a trend of any kind emerging.
Codes’ Preview & $90 Game Plan for Melton June 1
Race 1 — ALLIED EXPRESS PACE
OUTLAW MAN (5) gets chance to lead tonight. Can improve on figure form and $15 represents each-way value. UBETCHA TIGERPIE (1) should map well and is racing in super form. Mick Stanley has him racing in career-best form. The pole horse leads on Bon’s map, while I’ve got him behind the leader. My top pick is PERFECT CLASS (7). He’s got enormous upside. The cons are that he’s drawn wide and first-up. But the market is rock-solid on him ($1.65 at time of writing this) and that gives me confidence. He’ll work forward and could find the top if YAMBUKIAN (13) gets into the action in the early/middle stages. YAMBUKIAN (13) is flying and is well-placed on class. Draw makes it hard. LA CAPTAIN (8) and KOSIMO (11) are the other minor players if you’re into trifectas.
R1 GAME PLAN (outlay responsibly in line with your budget)
Just watching this one!
Race 2 — TAB LENIN TROTTERS FREE FOR ALL
ALDEBARAN ZEUS returns from the USA and is a high-class horse. He’s been truck-loaded in the market ($3 into $1.45). He should lead and probably just win. OLLIVICI (8) and ONE OVER ALL (9) have obvious class, too. And you could make an argument for GAELIC LAD (2) $12 the place ($14 when we recorded the pod) being a pinch of value if you enjoy taking a long-shot.
R2 GAME PLAN: No play.
Race 3 — BENSTUD STANDARDBREDS PACE FINAL
Keen on MY UNCLE STAN (7). The main players are drawn the back row here in HEY GOYOUGOODTHING (9), LAYDEN (11) and ROCKNROLL WALLA (13). And there is suspected early speed off the arm from horses like EL BOSTON (4), LILS NIGHTMARE (5) and WINGATE GUY (6). Once the dust settles, I think MY UNCLE STAN (7) can launch to the lead. If that occurs, I don’t think he’ll be headed.
R3 GAME PLAN
MY UNCLE STAN (7) WIN ($20 @ 3.3)
Race 4 — SULKY.APP THE FUTURE OF FORM PACE
Super keen on MOONWALKA (1). Bet of the night at $4 fixed at Saturday morning. That’s value. I have him leading and winning. Second pick is ILLAWONG LARAJAY (10). Racing really well and I’m confident can fill second or third on the podium. Then CREATABLE (2), HADTOBEHARRY (3), KYVALLEY AMANDA (8) and ALDEBARAN MILEY (13) are all place hopes.
R4 GAME PLAN (outlay responsibly in line with your budget)
$20 WIN MOONWALKA (1) @ $4 TAB
Trifectas
1 / 10 / 2,3,8,13 $8 for 200%
1 / 2,3,8,13 / 10 $4 for 100%
RACE 5 — AUSTRALIAN PACING GOLD PACE
GAWN (7) clear top pick. SHADOW CELT (8) the value for the place. Reckon this one has a fair bit of upside and drawn for a soft trip. THE SPORTZ STAR (1) can lead initially and Kez can either and up to the favourite, or park him. Either way, pole horse is a key place player. Respect OURMATEMENKO (10), A SMILEANDAWINX (6) and ROCKETS MATE (2) if you want to spread the net a bit wider.
R5 GAME PLAN (outlay responsibly in line with your budget)
Trifectas
7 / 1,8 / 1,8 $10 for 500%
7 / 1,8 / 2,6,10 $6 for 100%
RACE 6 — ALDEBARAN PARK SWEETHEART TROT FINAL
PICKET WIRE (6) has been racing well and the early market suggests there’s confidence here ($6.5 into $4). I don’t have a firm opinion on this race, but I tipped PICKET WIRE on top on the podcast and I’m sticking that way. ALDEBARAN BROOKE (3), COUNTESS CHIRON (4), CONSTANT (5), DICHOTOMY (7), COGNATI (10), and KEAYANG GUCCI (11) all in the mix — and the race’s hopes probably don’t end there… It’s a mystery.
R6 GAME PLAN: Just watch.
RACE 7 — HIP POCKET CASTLEMAINE TROTTERS HANDICAP
VIRGINIA CLOWERS (11) racing incredibly well and is the top pick here. LADY ADELIA (10) and HEPHAESTUS PHOENIX (5) should be respected from the Snooze stable. ALL THE TRIX (2) joins the Tubbs camp and has a great record. Keen to see how goes. IRON LOVE (7) an obvious player too. DELS DESTINY (1) at $22 the place not the worst “Hail Mary” if you want to get crazy.
R7 GAME PLAN: Just watch.
RACE 8 — NEVELE R STUD PACE
KEAYANG TOKYO (4) exciting horse, can shoot to front early and take a stack of catching. VANQUISH STRIDE (10) clearly the main danger. LINCOLN RIVER (8) off a soft pegs trip could explode late. And CLYMENUS (1) obviously maps nicely for place claims.
R8 GAME PLAN: (outlay responsibly to suit your budget)
Trifectas
4 / 8,10 / 1,6,8,10,11 $8 for 100%
8,10 / 4 / 1,6,8,10,11 $4 for 50%
RACE 9 — LIONHEART SECURITY TROTTERS FINAL
BERRIESANDCHERRIES (10) and JAZSPUR (11) the two here, very well-placed. I’m leaning to BERRIESANDCHERRIES (1) at the price ($4.6). MIELICKI (13) racing really well and at double figure quote is value. SON OF A SUN (7) and SOSOMAORI (6) respect. While there are a handful of chances, I am keen to play a win bet on the top pick.
R9 GAME PLAN: (outlay responsibly to suit your budget)
$10 win BERRIESANDCHERRIES ($4.6)
RACE 10 — ALABAR SAPLING STAKES
Tricky race with some exciting two-year-olds and a well-bred, well-stabled first-starter. Watch, learn and Go Bombers.
R10 Game Plan: Just Watch.
GAME PLAN SUMMARY (outlay responsibly in line with your budget)
R3
MY UNCLE STAN (7) WIN ($20 @ 3.3)
R4
$20 WIN MOONWALKA (1) @ $4 TAB
Trifectas
1 / 10 / 2,3,8,13 $8 for 200%
1 / 2,3,8,13 / 10 $4 for 100%
R5
Trifectas
7 / 1,8 / 1,8 $10 for 500%
7 / 1,8 / 2,6,10 $6 for 100%
R8
Trifectas
4 / 8,10 / 1,6,8,10,11 $8 for 100%
8,10 / 4 / 1,6,8,10,11 $4 for 50%
R9
$10 Win BERRIESANDCHERRIES at $4.6
Total outlay: $90
Total return: ???
Godspeed!