Melton Preview – July 27, 2024
In This Article
J-Bon’s Preview and Game Plan
Race 1
3GHOST OF TIME2THE BEACH FANTASY NZ7ISTHISJUSTFANTASY5SPRINGFIELD AFFAIR8CLYMENUS NZ9RADIUS4JACCKA CONNOR NZ10FINAL COLLECT NZ11MAJOR ROLL6MY UNCLE STANMAP CONFIDENCE: 80% (That either GHOST OF TIME (3) or THE BEACH FANTASY (2) will lead with leaning toward GHOST OF TIME (3) – only other serious leading hope ISTHISJUSTFANTASY (7)).
As mentioned on this week’s edition on this week’s Tongue Tie Off podcast, the inherent beauty and ultimate edge associated with accurate mapping is derived from the fact that it challenges all parts of the cranium. And there is no better example of this fact than tonight’s opening event at VH HQ. Here, we have a front line where 5 of the 6 runners possess relatively even gate speed: the question then becomes how many of that half dozen (and which) will choose to use their early pace. Essentially, this is an issue of intent and to my eye the two runners most likely to fight for early ascendancy are THE BEACH FANTASY (2) and GHOST OF TIME (3). As a result, we’re wagering the mindset that either horse may lead with a significant leaning toward GHOST OF TIME (3) to win that war. If he does, that bloke is heavily favoured to win but given the time-tested peg-dominance in opening races at Melton I’m also happy to save with 1×4 investments on THE BEACH FANTASY (2) and CLYMENUS (8) odds.
Race 2
1WRITTEN IN SILK8SHADOW CELT5COOL NIGHT3THE IRON DUKE9LAYDEN2MAJOR BERT11BIG BOY MAL12TIGER BAND WAGON10CLEAR LEFT NZ6TALLARAS SHADOW13CAPTAINS CATCH7STAG PARTY NZMAP CONFIDENCE: 60-65% (That WRITTEN IN SILK (1) can kick through and hold the front with smaller leading chances going to THE IRON DUKE (3) and COOL NIGHT (5). Excellent overall pace expected).
It’s fair to say there’s a bit going on here. Not only do we have a similar situation to Race 1, this time with 4 of the 6 front line runners each possessing comparable early speed, but we also have a polemaker stepping up in grade on the back of a picket-fence form line. Primarily, we’re hoping for – and expecting – most of that quartet to charge the arm with some intent, and in doing so, should ensure a solid/ genuine Lead Time for this class. Should that transpire then the “fastest” runner engaged, CAPTAINS CATCH (13), who has a staggering record off second line draws (check Pacesetter Profiles) can defiantly swamp these late and punters seem to agree given he’s been $14 into $4.80. hopefully most reading this backed him early based on my confidence on this week’s TTO pod/vod, but if not, there are still a couple of others at reasonable EW or 1x? quads. They are being perpetual Black Booker LAYDEN (9) and SHADOW CELT (8) who’s at cricket score odds and draws to lob the trail or three pegs at worst. Favourite CLEAR LEFT (10) is obviously a major hope but he’s now far too short for me to entertain.
Race 3
Yet again, confusion reigns over what will happen early in tonight’s first trotting affair and this time it feels we have fewer options to try and conquer the market. My top tip here is JAZSPUR (10) but this current quote of $3.20 is just short of luring me in, alternatively the $8.50/ $2.40 about KYVALLEY PIERRO (8) for two reasons. The first being that his effort two starts back was excellent if you can forget his abject last start failure. The second being that he should settle in a beautiful peg-line roll from his gate 8 draw (trail or three pegs at worst).
Race 4
4EL RESAMO2MORE WANTED5SEQUENCE6EBONYS AVENGER1ALDEBARAN ACRUX USA3EASY PICKINGS NZ8SER PATRICK7KYVALLEY AMANDAMAP CONFIDENCE: 70%+ (That MORE WANTED (2) will be first to the pegs).
90%+ (That the eventual leaders will come from EL RESAMO (4), SEQUENCE (5) or EBONIES AVENGER (6) with leaning toward EL RESAMO (4)).
If you thought that mapping the first three contents left you in cartographical purgatory, then welcome to hell. Once again, at least 6 of the 7 front row runners possess above average early speed but it’s clear I’m swimming against the tide in my preferred atlas. That’s because I have EL RESAMO (4) finding the front. If he does, I think that guy’s a massive winning hope at $8.50 and I wouldn’t rule him out even if he doesn’t. Alternatively, should they go ballistic through the first 400 meters then watch out from impressive last start winner SER PATRICK (8). It should be remembered he’s a very talented trotter and despite the SP profile that recent success was definitely no fluke.
Race 5
Of recent times these classic-age contests at HQ have been very tricky affairs, and this one is no different. Despite that fact it was very difficult not to be taken by the giant last start win from emerging Lara Jay farm youngster HES FROM HEAVEN (4). Sadly, I’m not the only one who recognised the enormity of that success, and I sense he’s now too short for any straight-out wager at $2.15 but will be playing aggressively through him in many of our 16 Quad combos with significant respect for Emma Stewart- trained due SOME AMERICAN (6) and MIKI TO SUCCESS (5).
Race 6
Confusion reigns once more in tonight’s Lightfoot Laurels given a couple of the leading chances have significant experience from behind the strands but have handicaps to overcome, while another couple of major hopes have very little exposure under these conditions yet possess the advantage of starting off the front. Every bone in my body wants to back one of my favourite active squaregaiters, VIRGINIA CLOWERS (7) as she drives from the tapes and looks likely to zip past her biggest threats within 100 meters of the start. Sadly, much like the previous event I just don’t feel her $2.30 quote is juicy enough to launch any missiles, though once again will hope to rectify that situation by targeting her heavily through Quads and trisectors while also including her three obvious dangers, particularly ALDERBARAN VERA (4).
Race 7
The mania rolls on in tonight’s co-feature contest the Jane Ellen Mares FFA. The good news, however, is that I’m confident the market has been overly kind to a few runners and somewhat disrespectful of two others. First – and I’ll cop it sweet if she wins – I give FIAMMA (1) ($6.00) almost no chance whatsoever and I also sense that despite their tactical advantages here that TREACHERY (3) and SOHO HISTORIA (4), are both racing below their best. Alternatively, RAKERO REBEL (5) is absolutely flying, and she wasn’t forced to face an army tonight would almost warrant favouritism and remains value at $4.20 despite the fact you could’ve gotten better earlier this week, while MAJOR DELIGHT (6) is an outstanding prospect who was once been compared to Ladies In Red. I strongly believe one of those two will salute and while I haven’t included her in my Game Plan, it’s utterly insane to me that SEW WHAT (2) is paying $35 the drum given she’s raced better at open class level than most of her rivals this evening.
Race 8
3PETRACCA2GAWN6YAMBUKIAN4KOSIMO1ARGGGHHH5DHAULAGIRI NZMAP CONFIDENCE: 75-80% (That GAWN (2) will be first to pegs).
90% (That the ultimate leader will come from PETRACCA (3) or YAMBUKIAN (6) with reasonable leaning toward PETRACCA (3)).
Typically weird old race to close out the card where PETRACCA (3) is an amazingly short favourite and should probably win but doesn’t seem deserving of his $1.35 price tag. Ultimately, will let this one go through to the keeper but hopefully by 8:57pm will still be in a few of our perspective Quads and if so, will half be hoping that the hot pop gets rolled by either stablemate GAWN (2) or YAMBUKIAN (6) for value purposes.
J-BON’S $400 GAME PLAN FOR MELTON – 27/07/2024
Race 1
GHOST OF TIME (3) $15 WIN @ $3.3
THE BEACH FANTASY (1) $3 x $12 @ $9.5 x 2.7
CLYMENUS (8) $3 x $12 @ $10/ $2.8
Race 2
CAPTAINS CATCH (13) $15 EW @ $7.5
SHADOW CELT (8) $3 x $12 @ $31/$7
LAYDEN (9) $5 x $10 @ $6.5/$1.8
Race 3
KYVALLEY PIERRO (8) $5 EW @ $8.50/$2.5
Race 4
EL RESAMO (4) $15 EW @ $7/$2
SER PATRICK (8) $5 EW @ $13/$2.8
Race 6 – MONEY RACE (Trifectas)
7/ 3,4,8/ 3,4,6,8: $42 gets 466.67%
4/ 7/ 3,6,8: $6 gets 200%
4/ 3,8/ 7: $2 gets 100%
Race 7
RAKERO REBEL (5) $20 WIN @ $4.80
MAJOR DELIGHT (6) $15 WIN @ $2.70
QUADS x 18 ($160)
4/ 7/ 5,6/ 3: $22 gets 1100%
4/ 7/ 5,6/ 2,6: $12 gets 300%
4/ 7/ 2,3,4/ 3: $12 gets 400%
4/ 4/ 5,6/ 3: $10 gets 500%
4/ 4/ 5,6/ 2,6: $6 gets 150%
4/ 4/ 2,3,4/ 3: $6 gets 200%
4/ 3,8/ 5,6/ 3: $10 gets 250%
4/ 3,8/ 5,6/ 2,6: $6 gets 75%
4/ 3,8/ 2,3,4/ 3: $6 gets 100%
5,6/ 7/ 5,6/ 3: $20 gets 500%
5,6/ 7/ 5,6/ 2,6: $12 gets 150%
5,6/ 7/ 2,3,4/ 3: $12 gets 200%
5,6/ 4/ 5,6/ 3: $10 gets 150%
5,6/ 4/ 5,6/ 2,6: $6 gets 75%
5,6/ 4/ 2,3,4/ 3: $6 gets 100%
5,6/ 3,8/ 5,6/ 3: $8 gets 100%
5,6/ 3,8/ 5,6/ 2,6: $4 gets 25%
5,6/ 3,8/ 2,3,4/ 3: $4 gets 33.33%
Codes’ Preview and Game Plan
Race 1
Wide-open way to start an interesting night at HQ. A few of my personal favs are going around here in GHOST OF TIME (3) and MY UNCLE STAN (6) (both in my Blackbook — Stan has been in there for the last 5 runs! I’ll delete him once he loses form!), ISTHISTHISJUSTFANTASY (7), who is electric and has a massive future, RADIUS (9) (though I’ve long stopped chasing him at odds) and FINAL COLLECT (10). I marked FINAL COLLECT (10) at $3.5fav and was surprised to see it open this morning at $19 with TAB. I thought he and ISTHISJUSTFANTASY (7) were the two likely class acts with GHOST OF TIME (3) to map nicely out in front should the other two (7 and 10) have to work a smidgen too hard. I said I’d play FINAL COLLECT (10) if the price was right but wasn’t expecting $19. Is $8 still and that’s still big overs IMO — noting that I mark my prices to a 105% market. MAJOR ROLL (11) is first-up from a long spell and I am risking but looking forward to seeing what can do. At its best would figure somewhere in the mix.
Top Tip: FINAL COLLECT (10)
Numbers: 10-7-3-2-8
Game Plan: $20 E/Way FINAL COLLECT ($19/$2.8)
Race 2
Opinions vary so often in the great game, which is what I love about it. I marked WRITTEN IN SILKY (1) $21 despite a five-win picket fence form line, where as the national harness site had it down as a $3.5 shot. It opened $19 and eased to $21 initially, so there may not be the opportunity elsewhere I was hoping for in this event. I thought THE IRON DUKE (3) a good chance to lead with COOL NIGHT (5) also punching forward. The pole horse could get into a duel with them, and if that does occur it’ll suit the big guns IMO off the back row in LAYDEN (9), CLEAR LEFT (10) and CAPTAINS CATCH (13). CLEAR LEFT (10) was a super run last week and is ready to win, I thought he had the measure of LEYDAN (9) on that occasion. At the price tonight however, the $9 about LEYDAN (9) looked too juicy as I marked him $5 whereas CLEAR LEFT (10) opened shorter than I thought, as I had him at $4. CAPTAINS CATCH (13) opened silly odds at $14 and was into $4.8 as I edit this, and my boy SHADOW CELT (8) could benefit from a hot early pace, too, if they go silly, but I have my doubts on him getting out in time if some of the class runners put the race away before this fella gets clear air (though he can sprint hard over that final 100m).
Top tip: CLEAR LEFT (10)
Numbers: 10-9-3-5-13-8
Game Plan: Please yourself — too many winning chances and no obvious value for mine
Race 3
KYVALLEY HONEYBUNNY (1) had a tune-up for this last night. I think can lead here and would take a stack of running down if gifted a slow middle section. EWING (2) will likely test the pole early and would like to be in front. JAZSPUR (10), AVANT GUARD (3), MAESTRO (5) and KYVALLEY PIERRO (8) all somewhere in the mix, too, for wider early quads.
Top tip: KYVALLEY HONEYBUNNY (1)
Numbers: 1-10-3-8-5
Game Plan: $20 Win KYVALLEY HONEYBUNNY (1) @ $4
Race 4
Tricky map to sort out. SEQUENCE (5) likely leader. Some chance EL RESAMO (4) leads and holds it out, but my map has Barbetti finding the leader’s back behind SEQUENCE (5). Of course this scenario depends on ALDEBARAN ACRUX (1) not getting out super quick. If Snooze can have her trot flawlessly off the arm and into a prominent spot, she’ll end up behind leader most likely. EBONYS AVENGER (6) is into the right kind of race and not surprised to see her well in commission early, though I had her on the equal second line of prices with numbers 1 and 4.
Top tip: SEQUENCE (5)
Numbers: 5-4-6-1
Game Plan: Please yourself
Race 5
HES FROM HEAVEN (4) is a class act. Did it so well last week and the last 800m was electric and sustained. I’m tipping this son of Sweet Lou to lead for Herb and take a power of beating tonight. I marked him $2.4 and had hoped he’d open up longer, but he didn’t SOME AMERICAN (6) is the main danger, then a gap to SMOKEN ACE (7) and MIKI TO SUCCESS (5).
Top tip: HES FROM HEAVEN (4)
Numbers: 4-6-7-5
Game Plan: Please yourself at the price available — not enough value for mine
Race 6
VIRGINIA CLOWERS (7) and ALDEBARAN VERA (4) are the main two here with a big query on SACRED MOUNTAIN (8), who is second-up for Svanosio. VIRGINIA CLOWERS (7) is proven at the standing start conditions and at the class. I’ve got her on top. I note the early money has come for ALDEBARAN VERA (4) but that may just be a market correction.
Top tip: VIRGINIA CLOWERS (7)
Numbers: 7-4-8-6-3
Game Plan: Please yourself at the price available — not enough value for mine
Race 7
RAKERO REBEL (5) was such a good run last week. I said on Twitter early this year, RAKERO REBEL (5) will be at least right alongside the very best mares in the country within 12 months — suddenly, I’m feeling better about this prediction. She can win tonight but does have to overcome an army of classy Emma Stewart runners to do so. SOHO HISTORIAN (4) does look the leader and perhaps represents some value at $6.5. But RAKERO REBEL at the $5.5 is too good to pass up.
Top tip: RAKERO REBEL (5)
Numbers: 5-6-4-3
Game Plan: $20 WIN RAKERO REBEL @ $5.5
Race 8
PETRACCA (3) has opened a commanding favourite in the last race and looks hardest to beat but at the price of $4.8, YAMBUKIAN (6) must rate a huge chance to snare some overs. GAWN (2) is a talent but would be looking for cover behind PETRACCA (3) IMO. But while both of those horses are well on the up, YAMBUKIAN (6) has been there and done that. Andy Gath’s camp is going well, as always, and I think gets a huge opportunity here.
Top tip: PETRACCA (3)
Numbers: 3-6-2-4
Game Plan: $25 WIN YAMBUKIAN (7) $4.8 (yes, I tipped the fav, but he’s way too short & YAMBUKIAN is big overs — so this is how we play)
GAME PLAN
R1 No.10 FINAL COLLECT $20 E/way @ $19/$2.8
R3 No.1 KYVALLEY HONEYBUNNY $20 Win @ $4
R7 No.5 RAKERO REBEL $20 Win @ $5.5
R8 No.6 YAMBUKIAN $25 Win @ $4.8
Early Quaddie — $36 for 10%
3,7,10 / 3,5,8,9,10,13 / 1,3,5,10 / 4,5,6,7,8
Quaddie — $36 for 100%
4,6 / 4,7 / 4,5,6 / 2,3,6
Exotics ($40 spend)
Race 5 — Trifecta
4/6/3,5 $20 for X10
4/3,5/6 $10 for X5
6/4/3,5 $10 for X5
Outlay: $217
Return: ???