Melton Preview – July 20, 2024
In This Article
Bon’s Preview and Game Plan
Race 1
6YAMBUKIAN5JILLIBYJACKSPARROW4PERFECT CLASS2JUSTALITTLESIP NZ9BULLETPROOF BOY1UBETCHA TIGERPIE12TREACHERY8SERG BLANCO NZ7PERFECT STRIDE NZ10MACH DAN11RAKERO REBEL NZ13TRIPLE EIGHT NZMAP CONFIDENCE: 85%-90% (That JILLIBYJACKSPARROW (5) will find the pegs first).
70% (That JILLIBYJACKSPARROW (5) will hand-up to either PERFECT CLASS (4) or YAMBUKIAN (6)).
Often, when coat-tuggers find you at the track, they’re desire is for you to “tip” them a “winner”. What the average punter fails to comprehend is that its equally, if not more lucrative to “tip” them a “looser”. Or more accurately find them a hot favourite severally under-priced. Such is the case in tonight’s opening event. We’ve played this game before but let’s play again. As we speak PERFECT CLASS (4) is $1.40 and has been since markets opened. As tweeted earlier this week his record is 6 for 6 when leading, and 3 for 19 when not. With that in mind, its largely up to you; if you’re certain (or virtually certain) he’ll lead then $1.40 might be your right price. If you’re not near certain, that quote is simply unacceptable. In my opinion he’s a $1.60 (62.5%) chance in front and a $6 (16%) chance if not; and given I feel he’s only a 50/50 hope of leading I feel he’s probably a $2.50 hope in real terms, which suggests he’s WAY under the odds and well worth risking. That means simply laying him is an obvious option but if you’re looking to play more traditionally, this is my advice firstly a 1×4 wager on JILLIBYJACKSPAROW (5) is advised given he should cross early and have options henceforth (though I hope others like myself took the $3.20 place price earlier in the week) I would also advocate for something small on YAMBUKIAN (6) as I give him a great chance of leading, something smaller on MACH DAN (10) and a 1×6 or place-only dip at JUSTALITTLESIP (2) who should cross the pole early and thrives on peg-line trips. In truth, you could nearly back half the field in some fashion, purely resulting from the favourite being way too short.
Race 2
1MY UNCLE STAN3YAPPER4CLEAR LEFT NZ8BLASTER RANGER10TIGER BAND WAGON9BIG BOY MAL2LAYDEN6LOTTIE MOON NZ7BEACH HOPPER NZMAP CONFIDENCE: 80% (That MY UNCLE STAN (1) will hold up from his polemarking draw – with reasonable chance that YAPPER (3) will also run the gate and drop in for trail).
On face value the only market available for this second event looks way off the mark IMO. With Huge Maguire out of proceedings, MY UNCLE STAN (1) should get a much easier lead than would otherwise have been the case and $3.50 about him is very generous indeed, while a “saver” wager, possibly each way is also worth entertaining about LAYDEN (2) who has been flying forever and draws to settle closer than he’s been used to in recent times.
Race 3
4KYVALLEY AMANDA1INMYDREAMS7COURMAYEUR9ALDEBARAN ACRUX USA3COPACABANA6BLACK AND GOLD2MAORI DUCHESS10ALDEBARAN MILEY11EXALTED5LADY ADELIAMAP CONFIDENCE: 90%+ (That either KYVALLEY AMANDA (4) or COURMAYEUR (7) will lead with slight leading toward the former).
As outlines in this week’s Pacesetter Profiles, the importance of leading for fast starters KYVALLEY AMANDA (4) and COURMAYEUR (7) is enormous. If you’re bullish, about one or the other, assuming control, then go your hardest; I’m not certain enough of which way that battle will end. What I do believe is that they’ll charge hard through the first 400m which would suit a horse like ALDEBARAN MILEY (10) down to the ground. Opinions vary wildly on this event, and I originally wasn’t keen, but the $10/ $3 is too generous to ignore so ill defiantly be backing her each way for something.
Race 4
The scratching of Captain Bellasario has all but assured PETRACCA (9) is a stone cold certainty here, but the best way of playing is OPERATIVE LINE (8) straight out the place IMO>
Race 5
In tonight’s opening quartet of races, markets have tempted me into attacking when I otherwise would have let them go through to the keeper. That theme dose not continue in the opening leg of tonight’s Quad. If you’re mad keen to play, then the compromised price about EBONYS AVENGER (1) offers us the option of a small straight-out bet on HARRY STAMPER (3) and an Each Way dip at PARISAN ARTISTE (4) but it is unlikely either wager will feature in my Game Plan.
Race 6
The prohibitive quote about HIGH ABOVE (11), and question marks over his manners almost assures this is a no-bet contest for mine. Don’t get me wrong, he should simply salute, and that fact will be represented through my Quad combos but actually investing in this event simply doesn’t appeal.
Race 7
Sometimes you find races your simply not drawn to regardless of market generosity, and this one such event. Nevertheless, it will take all my much-vaunted discipline to avoid a small Each way investment on EWING (3) at his crazy $12 quote. He might not be the best trotter engaged but most of his front row rivals are sketchy at the start and if ‘Patrick’ finds the top (he’s 2 from 2 when leading) then I’d be shocked if he missed a podium position. You’re not even consigned to any win wager as the $2.95 place price is attractive enough.
Race 8
When first inspecting this program TALLARAS SHADOW (1) leaped off the page as the horse I most wanted to back from any event. Sadly, further evaluation of her early pace has somewhat cooled my jets. I still believe her $3.80 quote is probably good enough to lure me in though I’m perhaps even more enticed by a 1×3 investment on UBETTA KNOT (8) at $13/ $3.40. it’s obvious she maps to disadvantage but that doesn’t justify her being anywhere near that type of value.
Race 9
10VERY PRETTY4OURMATEMENKO NZ7EXOTIC BUSHRANGER1JACCKA CONNOR NZ5GHOST OF TIME8MAGNETIC TERROR NZ2CARRAMAR SOLOMONA9CLYMENUS NZ6HEAVENLY CHARM11TERRY NZMAP CONFIDENCE: 70% (That OURMATEMENKO (4) will find pegs first and hold that role at least until challenged by VERY PRETTY (10)).
At best, this evening’s get-out stakes will provide us with Money Race vibes only. Vision impaired Freddy could tell you that VERY PRETTY (10) will almost certainly maintain her unbeaten record, despite the poor draw and in all honesty your best hope of snaring a profit is via exotics impelled by roving one of her rivals to finish second or third with a few others thrown into the mix. Map-wise are the best option in that regard is probably OURMATEMANKO (4). Class and marketwise you might be better off opting for EXOTIC BUSHRANGER (7) and hoping the likely winner shatters the peloton behind her and map position ends up meaning very little.
J-BON’S $400 GAME PLAN FOR MELTON 10/07/2024
Race 1
JILLIBYJACKSPARROW (5) $5 x $35 @$13/$2.5
Race 2
MY UNCLE STAN (1) $40 WIN @$3.5
LAYDEN (2) $10 EW @ $10/$3.1
Race 3
ALDEBARAN MILEY (10) $20 EW @ $10/$3
Race 4
OPERATIVE LINE (8) $50 Place @$2.30
Race 7
EWING (2) $5 x $30 @ $13/$2.95
Race 8
TALLARAS SHADOW (1) $20 WIN @$4.20
UBETTA KNOT (8) $5 x $30 @$13/$3.4
Race 9
MONEY RACE (First 4’s)
10/ 4,7/ 1,4,5,7,9/ 1,4,5,7,9 ($24 gets 100%)
10/ 4,7/ 1,4,5,7,9/ 8,11 ($6 gets 37.5%)
EARLY QUADS
4,5,6,10/ 1/ 4,5,7,10,11/ 9: $40 gets 200%
4,5,6,10/ 2,3,4/ 4,5,7,10,11/ 9: $30 gets 50%
Codes’ Preview and Game Plan
RACE 1
A number of horses here are actually going well enough to win a race like tonight’s opener. PERFECT CLASS (4) has come up favourite and looks super-short at $1.40. Can obviously win and should be favourite, but at those odds, I don’t want to play that way. JILLIBY JACKSPARROW is a rocket ship off the arm. Explosive. Can lead and find the pegs. Then Glen Craven can either attempt to lead all the way or hand up to something, perhaps the favourite, PERFECT CLASS (4), or, as J-Bon made a strong case for on the pod, maybe YAMBUKIAN (6), who has good gate speed when they hit the button early. His run recently against PERFECT CLASS (4) from the extreme back row draw was sensational. Looks hard to hold out. UBETCHA TIGERPIE (1) and JUSTALITTLESIP (2) are both going well and both could lob nice trips on the pegs. I think JUSTALITTLESIP (2) will get across the pole horse, but UBETCHA is absolutely flying and cannot be taken lightly. Then you have class runners like SERG BLANCO (8), BULLETPROOF BOY (9), MACH DAN (10), RAKERO REBEL (11), TREACHERY (12) and TRIPLE EIGHT (13) all capable of winning with the right run. Too many chances to tip with confidence, but because the favourite is so incredibly short, I could have a few bucks on JUSTALITTLESIP (2), JILLIBY JACKSPARROW (5), YAMBUKIAN (6), SERG BLANCO (8) and BULLETPROOF BOY (9), who are all at big odds — some of those at cricket score odds!
Top tip: PERFECT CLASS (4)
Game Plan: Your call — I’m not confident and fav is too short.
RACE 2
MY UNCLE STAN (1) has been good to us in the Black Book and gets chance to find the lead here from the pole draw. LAYDEN (2) drawn alongside has been going super, too. Last start was very unlucky not to win and he was right alongside MY UNCLE STAN (1) for best run of the race in the Melton event on June 1 — a key pointer here. YAPPER (3) is racing well in weaker class, with two wins on the trot. James Herbertson is driving in superb form and it’ll be interesting to see what he does early. If he leads or drops behind the leader, he’s in the mix. CLEAR LEFT (4) had no luck behind Le Belle Bijoux a fortnight back, then covered ground when a brave second to Miki To Success last weekend. He too is ready to win. BLASTER RANGER (8) is a good horse on the pegs and his last start was better than figure form suggests. If he were to trail the leader in MY UNCLE STAN (1), or even lob three-poles, he’s potentially a good place bet and a sneaky blow-out candidate at odds.
Top tip: LAYDEN (2)
Game Plan: $20 PLACE BLASTER RANGER (8) @ $2.40
$10 WIN X $30 PLACE LAYDEN (2) @ $10/$2.50
Trifecta: BOX 1,2,3,4,8 $15 for 25%
RACE 3
LADY ADELIA (5) has a class edge on paper and I’m surprised has come up the price it has at $4.4. Her form is up to winning this class.
Top tip: LADY ADELIA (5)
Game Plan: $20 WIN LADY ADELIA (5) @ $4.40
RACE 4
OPERATIVE LINE (8) for the place is a good bet here at $3.10 on offer. Should land behind leader initially or worst-case three-pegs. CRIME WRITER (1) is flying and is in the mix for a drum, whilst the clear class top pick is PETRACCA (9), who should be winning. SAHARA BREEZE (10) should improve tonight and is also probably not a bad place bet.
Top tip: PETRACCA (9)
Game Plan: $40 PLACE OPERATIVE LINE (8) @ $3.10
RACE 5
ONE OVER ALL (8) and HARRY STAMPER (3) are clearly the two here. The early market crunch this morning has already come for HARRY STAMPER (3), which is interesting — he’s into favourite. Word out of the Svanosio camp earlier this week was to not expect too much from SACRED MOUNTAIN (2), but I note is already $6.5 into $5.5 this morning. LADY ADELIA (1) was beautifully placed in the run for us last week before a tiring horse came back in her face and she galloped. She tends to find bad luck but she’s in the mix here. Others can win, too, so not keen to play but for quads focus around the top two in the market.
Top tip: ONE OVER ALL (8)
Game Plan: Up to you — respect the market move for HARRY STAMPER (3)
RACE 6
HIGH ABOVE (11) should be winning if scores up unlike last time. HES FROM HEAVEN (1) can make a race of it from the pole, while THE BEACH FANTASY (5) opened silly odds at $34. Is flying.
Top tip: HIGH ABOVE (11)
Game Plan: Trifectas $33 spend
11 / 1 / 5 $12 X12
11 / 5 / 1 $6 X6
11 / 1 / 2,8 $10 X5
1,5 / 1,5,11 / F $5 for 13.88%
RACE 7
REMUS PHOENIX (4) probably has the most potential here, but healthy respect for several others including ALL THAT REMAINS (8), EWING (3), MIDNIGHT EAGLE (1), MISTER BLINDSIDE (2), KYVALLEY MICHAEL (7) AND APRIL SUN (9).
Top tip: REMUS PHOENIX (4)
Game Plan: Your call.
RACE 8
BIZZNESS CLASS (7) was my Black Booker last week and gets chance to win here. Only five off the front line now so will be interesting to see what goes down at the start. Will Herb chance his arm and put him in the race early or will BIZNESS CLASS (7) be finishing off strongly like we saw last week in a tougher race for mine? Either way, I’ve got him on top with a decent level of confidence for a $9 shot this morning. There were double figure odds floating about on Friday if you are one of the few who can get a dollar on two on there! TALLARAS SHADOW (1), COOL NIGHT (2), UBETTA KNOT (8) and ALWAYS THE SHOWMAN (4) are among the next best.
Top tip: BIZZNESS CLASS (7)
Game Plan: $25 Each-Way PLACE BIZZNESS CLASS (7) $9/$2.20
RACE 9
VERY PRETTY (10) resumes and is unbeaten in eight starts. Simply looks too good for them here. EXOTIC BUSHRANGER (7) can balance up and potentially find the lead once the dust settles between early speedsters OURMATEMENKO (3) and GHOST OF TIME (4). Either of those could lead also, at least initially. JACCKA CONNOR (1) and CLYMENUS (9) are next best.
Top tip: VERY PRETTY (10)
Game Plan: FIRST 4: 10 / 1,4,5,7,9 / 1,4,5,7,9 / 1,4,5,7,9 $15 for 25%
CODES’ GAME PLAN SUMMARY INCLUDING QUADS
Race 2
$20 PLACE BLASTER RANGER (8) @ $2.40
$10 WIN X $30 PLACE LAYDEN (2) @ $10/$2.50
Trifecta: BOX 1,2,3,4,8 $15 for 25%
Race 3
$20 WIN LADY ADELIA (5) @ $4.40
Race 4
$40 PLACE OPERATIVE LINE (8) @ $3.10
Race 6
Trifectas $33 spend
11 / 1 / 5 $12 X12
11 / 5 / 1 $6 X6
11 / 1 / 2,8 $10 X5
1,5 / 1,5,11 / F $5 for 13.88%
Race 8
$25 Each-Way PLACE BIZNESS CLASS (7) $9/$2.20
Race 9
FIRST 4: 10 / 1,4,5,7,9 / 1,4,5,7,9 / 1,4,5,7,9 $15 for 25%
QUADS (TOTAL OUTLAY: $81)
3,8/11/4/7 $10 for 500%
3,8/11/4/1,2,4,8 $20 for 250%
3,8/11/1,2,3,7,8,9/7 $6 for 50%
3,8/11/1,2,3,7,8,9/1,2,4,8 $12 for 25%
1,2,4,5/11/4/7 $5 for 125%
1,2,4,5/11/4/1,2,4,8 $10 for 62.50%
1,2,4,5/11/1,2,3,7,8,9/7 $3 for 12.50%
1,2,4,5/11/1,2,3,7,8,9/1,2,4,8 $6 for 6.25%
3,8/1,5/4/7 $2 for 50%
3,8/1,5/4/1,2,4,8 $4 for 25%
3,8/1,5/1,2,3,7,8,9/7 $1 for 4.16%
3,8/1,5/1,2,3,7,8,9/1,2,4,8 $2 for 2.08%
TOTAL GAME PLAN OUTLAY: $314
TOTAL RETURN: ???
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