Melton Preview – August 31, 2024

FormAugust 30, 2024 | Pacesetters

In This Article

Bon’s Preview and Game Plan

Race 1

RACE1
MELTONLEGEND POPULAR ALM & VIN KNIGHT FREE FOR ALL
EARLY SPEEDMODERATE
CONFIDENCE90%
1JILLIBY WILLOW
11BETTER ECLIPSE
8BULLETPROOF BOY
7TRIPLE EIGHT NZ
9HURRICANE HARLEY
5HELLUVA NZ
4BETTOR ISOLATE
6SEW WHAT
10CATCH A WAVE
2OPERATIVE LINE

MAP CONFIDENCE: 90% (That JILLIBY WILLOW (1) will hold up early from pole draw and likely look to lead throughout with BULLETPROOF BOY (8) lobbing the trail. One of CATCH A WAVE (10) & BETTER ECLIPSE (11) could make solo mid-race move, or come together with their assaults either early or late).

My magnificent Old Man was a great proponent of four-horse Boxed Trifectas. I rarely play them myself, but there are two events at HQ tonight where they may well pay dividends, and this is the first. Here’s why. Firstly, there are two talented runners likely to enjoy extreme positional advantages in JILLIBY WILLOW (1) (Likely Leader) & BULLETPROOF BOY (8) (obvious trailer). Then, we have two further combatants with a giant class edge on their rivals in CATCH A WAVE (10) & BETTER ECLIPSE (11). Between them, that quartet should fill the podium. Alternatively, a 1×2/3 investment on BULLETPROOF BOY (8) also works as we’d want him to finish top 3 for value in that referenced Trick for value regardless.

Race 2

Up to four Front Row runners could potentially lead tonight’s second event and, as a result, there are too many variables for my liking. There are, however, two wagers I’d be willing to consider if the prices are right. Currently, HATCHBACK (10)   is at $19 and should there be some early fireworks as seems quite likely then his class will be worth its weight in gold, and I’d be open to backing him EW or 1×2. ZAREM (8) is the other tempting proposition on a 1x 4/5 or Place Only basis as he’s racing well again lately and thrives off peg-line runs.

Race 3

Every runner draw 1-to-3 here possesses above average early pace and I’m hoping/expecting that all of them charge the gate at mobile rise. If so, then class second line runners TIGER BAND WAGON (9) and ROYAL DIVISION (11) should get last crack. I’m leaning toward the Tiger but won’t play in the race as the Love Bug factor has ensured he’s shorter than I’d like.

Race 4

RACE4
MELTONTAB WE'RE ON LEGEND BILL MCKAY PACE
EARLY SPEEDSOLID
1ROARFORROSCOE
7ULTIMATE VINNIE
8JILLIBYJACKSPARROW
10BUBBA SCRUB NZ
9CHEYELLA
2FIRST DANCE NZ
5CAPTAIN PINS NZ
4KOWALSKI ANALYSIS
3CLYMENUS NZ

MAP CONFIDENCE: 65-70% (That ROARFORROSCOE (1) will hold up from pole alley though KOWALSKI ANALYSIS (4) possesses epic early pace should they choose to use it and ULTIMATE VINNIE (7) may also charge the gate in a bid for ascendancy out wide).

Almost every one of the 9 runners engaged in the final leg of tonight’s EQ can prevail, so price will absolutely be King when it comes to wagering on this contest. Based on HRV-Bet prices, one of my favourite mares, CHEYELLA (9), selects herself on an EW basis at $21 though, as mentioned, cases can be made for several runners and I’ve been burned several times recently when not following my own Black Bookers so will also have something small EW on KOWALSKI ANALYSIS (7) at $7.

Race 5

RACE5
MELTONDON STEWART MEMORIAL PACE
EARLY SPEEDMODERATE
CONFIDENCE90%
2RORYVILLE
5ALBY TWO CHAINS
1ROCKANDANCE
4JACCKA CONNOR NZ
8CRIME WRITER
3DANCE AWAY
9HES CHARLIES ANGEL
7RADIUS

MAP CONFIDENCE: 90% (That either ROCKNDANCE (1) or RORYVILLE (2) will lead with slight leaning toward RORYVILLE (2)).

I did mention off the top that TWO of tonight’s contests at MEP looked ideal mediums for 4-horse Boxed Trifectas. This is the second. And, once again, here’s why. The only two runners realistically capable of leading are ROCKNDANCE (1) and RORYVILLE (2), while the class pair engaged are CRIME WRITER (8) and HES CHARLIES ANGEL (9) who follow that duo through at the start. If the polemarker leads, then CRIME WRITER (8) should win, while if RORYVILLE (2) leads then any of the mentioned Quartet may prevail. Either way it’s tough envisaging a situation where the four runners mentioned won’t dominate the dais.

Race 6

For as long as I can remember, the gap between ‘Elite’ trotters and those one-rung beneath them has always been far larger than the same chasm in pacing. For whatever reason, positional disadvantage, length of trip and other similar factors rarely preclude superstar squaregaiters from finding ways to win. This is why I’m crazily confident that CALLMETHEBREEZE (8) will dominate tonight with anything close to even luck and hopefully a few followers backed him at $1.9/$2 as he’s now very near the $1.45 I predicted he’d start.

Race 7

Sadly, it’s very probable that the Jimmy ‘Love Bug’ Herbertson factor should ensure that IM BOBBY (7) will start even shorter than he should in this evening’s penultimate event. Even knowing this, I feel he’s so well placed that you can include him in Multis if that’s your preferred punting medium.

Race 8

RACE8
MELTONLEGEND GAMMALITE PACE
EARLY SPEEDSOLID
7FIGHTER COMMAND
9LE BELLE BIJOUX
4SHANLOU NZ
3NORMS LADY
1KENDYS BUTTERFLY
2JOHN MCLEAN NZ
8NEW YORKER
6DUKES CHOICE
10DHAULAGIRI NZ
5TIL HEAVENS ROCKN NZ

MAP CONFIDENCE: 75-80% (That FIGHTER COMMAND will bully his way to the top from either SHANLOU (4) (likely) or KENYS BUTTERFLY (1)).

The skinny finish to this programme – hopefully – continues with the closing contest which looks to have Money Race written all over it. Even from out in Gate 7 it would come as an almighty shock if Eureka slot-holder FIGHTER COMMAND (7) didn’t dominate here while SHANLOU (4) and LE BELLE BIJOUX (9) pick themselves as your second-tier runners clear of KENDYS BUTTERFLY (1), NEW YORKER (8) and DHAULAGIRI (10). If you play around with a couple of combos incorporating all of the above, you should go reasonably close.

J-BON’S $450 GAME PLAN FOR THE ‘FERRIS WHEEL’ – 31/08/2024

Race 1
BULLETPROOF BOY (8) $10 x $20 @ $6.5/$1.95

Flexi Box Trifecta
1,8,10 & 11 ($60 gets 250%)

Race 2
HATCHBACK (10) $5 x $10 @ $19/$4.6
ZAREM (8) $5 x $20 @ $21 & $5

Race 4
CHEYELLA (9) $15 EW @ $21/$3.3
KOWALSKI ANALYSIS (4) $10 EW @ $7/$2

Race 5
Flexi Box Trifecta
1,2,8 & 9 ($60 gets 250%)

Race 8
Flexi Trifectas
7/ 4,9/ 1,4,8,9,10: $40 gets 500%
7/ 1,8,9,10/ 4,9: $10 gets 166.67%

QUADS ($160)
1,2,8,9/ 8/ 7/ 7 ($88 gets 2200%)
1,2,8,9/ 8/ 2,3,9/ 7 ($60 gets 500%)
1,2,8,9/ 3,5,7/ 7/ 7 ($12 gets 100%)

Codes’ Preview and Game Plan

Race 1 

We know that CATCH A WAVE (10) and BETTER ECLIPSE (11) are the genuine, proven class pacers in the opener. 

CATCH A WAVE (10) produced a bit of a fizzer first-up, but as trainer Andy Gath acknowledged during the week, he can do that and he can bounce back quickly. 

BETTER ECLIPSE (11) is first-up since a successful trip over the ditch and by all reports is ready to rock and roll. 

I’m going with the proven class here – reckon they finish 1-2. 

From there, JILLIBY WILLOW (1) gets a chance to lead here and make a dashing bid for an all-the-way success. If the favourites aren’t at their best, he could surprise, but the cream has disappeared from any early overs IMO. 

BULLETPROOF BOY (8) obviously maps nicely if the pole does lead. And he’s proven at this level. 

HELLUVA (5), SEW WHAT (6) and TRIPLE EIGHT (7) are three horses I’d include in trifectas to try and add a pinch of jazz to the dividend should we lob it. HELLUVA (5) was terrific in defeat last start; SEW WHAT (6) was my black-book on the pod from her effort last time, she’s ready to fire again, and TRIPLE EIGHT (7) is proven at this level and can bob up despite the wide alley. 

Codes’ Top 4

10 – CATCH A WAVE
11 – BETTER ECLIPSE
1 – JILLIBY WILLOW 
8 – BULLETPROOF BOY

Race 2 

If there’s a scratching and MORE WANTED (1) gets a start, it changes the way this plays out. And as I don’t generally include emergencies in my form analysis, it makes things pretty tricky. 

I like KEAYANG STUKA (4) going forward. Hard to know what price he will open but he will be tuned-up and ready to go first-up. 

ILLAWONG LARAJAY (6) is racing super-well for Jess Tubbs, who is similarly flying! Definitely a key player here despite the gate. 

HATCHBACK (10) is proven in this class (and I’ll always have a soft spot for him after THAT magnificent win earlier in our project journey). Well-placed in this. 

ZAREM (8) is ready to fire and draws for his favourite pegs trip before launching late. Do not leave him out. 

Codes’ Top 4

4 – KEAYANG STUKA
6 – ILLAWONG LARAJAY
10 – HATCHBACK
8 – ZAREM

Race 3

Very keen on one here – TIGER BAND WAGON (9). Is ready to win at this level and obviously loses nothing with man of the moment Jimmy Herbertson back in the gig. He rates extremely highly and if they do go quick early up-front, we’ll be well-placed. 

ROYAL DIVISION (11) is racing so well for smart trainer Paddy Lee. Happy to include as a big chance despite gate 11. 

ALL DA RAGE (10) races better opposition up in the Sunraysia and if can replicate it down at Melton he’d have to be in the mix.

BLASTER RANGER (4) is another who is destined to win one of these races before too long and give former colleague, passionate trots aficionado and genuine all-round gem Nikkita Ross a thrill in the winners’ circle! 

Codes’ Top 4

9 – TIGER BAND WAGON
11 – ROYAL DIVISION
10 – ALL DA RAGE
4 – BLASTER RANGER

Race 4

JILLIBY JACKSPARROW (8) is one of the most consistent horses in the game of late. Never runs a bad race. If the breaks go his way here, he has to go close. I’m tipping pole marker ROARFORROSCOE (1) settles in front or leader’s back; certainly close enough to give JJ a nice pegs trip and from there, just needs to launch up the straight to be winning or at very least running a place for the Paddy Lee/Glen Craven combo. 

KOWALSKI ANALYSIS (4) is a smidgen underrated for me. He can win more country cups later this year and his last couple have been very good, admittedly with a break in between.

CHEYELLA (9) and FIRST DANCE (2) are both handy mares, and both have claims here. 

Codes’ Top 4

8 – JILLIBY JACKSPARROW
4 – KOWALSKI ANALYSIS
9 – CHEYELLA
2 – FIRST DANCE

Race 5

CRIME WRITER (8) has lived in my Black Book for a little while now and it’s quite amazing to think he has not won since October 8, 2022. He is racing very well and just needs things to go his way. I can see that occurring here. 

The pole horse, ROCKANDANCE (1), should lead IMO. This puts CRIME WRITER (8) on the leader’s back and from there, on class, he will be extremely hard to hold out. I’m pretty keen! 

ROCKANDANCE (1) will give things a big shake and is the main danger. Is racing well and this is favourite barrier. 

JACCKA CONNOR (4) can add value to exotics. And RORYVILLE (2) is a player, too. 

Codes’ Top 4

8 – CRIME WRITER
1 – ROCKANDANCE
4 – JACCKA CONNOR
2 – RORYVILLE 

Race 6

Top-class trotter CALLMETHEBREEZE (8) makes debut for Andy Gath here and is clearly the horse to beat. 

We see OLLIVICI (7) return also. Clearly a danger.

ONE OVER ALL (3) and ALDEBARAN ZEUS (5) are best of the rest here. 

Codes’ Top 4

8 – CALLMETHEBREEZE
7 – OLLIVICI
3 – ONE OVER ALL
5 – ALDEBARAN ZEUS

Race 7 

IM BOBBY (7) is flying and gets a chance here to make it three wins on the bounce for trainer Eddie Tappe and reinsman James Herbertson. 

Despite the gate, he’s the horse going best here and he’s the one I want to be on. 

MINIMEZ (3) has ability and is progressive. 

SOVEREIGN TIGER (6) is going well and worth including. 

CREATABLE (5) can also add some value to exotics. 

Codes’ Top 4

7 – IM BOBBY
3 – MINIMEZ
6 – SOVEREIGN TIGER
5 – CREATABLE 

Race 8

We go home with a near-certainty here in FIGHTER COMMAND (7). Should just be winning this for the in-form Tubbs/Sugars combo. 

SHANLOU (4) the main danger for in-form Stewart stable. 

NEW YORKER (8) can fill a slot on the podium and might be juicy place odds. 

TIL HEAVENS ROCKN (5) is coming off a nice win and should be thereabouts, too. 

Codes’ Top 4

7 – FIGHTER COMMAND
4 – SHANLOU
8 – NEW YORKER
5 – TIL HEAVENS ROCKN

CODES’ $100 GAME PLAN