Melton Preview – August 3, 2024
In This Article
J-Bon’s Preview and Game Plan
Race 1
2BULLETPROOF BOY1SEW WHAT12PERFECT CLASS10TANGO TARA NZ8JILLIBYJACKSPARROW3SERG BLANCO NZ9KOSIMO4OUR VINCENT CAN GOGH NZ5DHAULAGIRI NZ6TRIPLE EIGHT NZ11OPERATIVE LINE7MAJOR ROLLMAP CONFIDENCE: 90% (That BULLETPROOF BOY (2) will find front and very likely retain that role with mid-race pressure coming via TANGO TARA (10), PERFECT CLASS (12) or probably both).
As I recently Tweeted, there’s an extraordinary stat lurking beneath the shadows in this evening’s fast class affair. Without question, logic suggests that staggeringly lovable veteran BULLETPROOF BOY (2) will lead this event with relative comfort and, at least initially, remain unpressured in that coveted role. Amazingly however, the last 3 times BB has piloted them around over Melton’s 2240m journey, one of his rivals tonight has beaten him home on EVERY occasion. That rival being TRIPLE EIGHT (6). And he’s achieved this feat from 3 poles, 1×2 and out the back then 3-wide without cover. If anything, T8 should receive even more fortune tonight than on previous occasions given the likelihood he’ll balance up from his wide gate, mosey forward to the chair and almost certainly receive cover in rapid time from TANGO TARA (10), PERFECT CLASS (12) or probably both. Importantly, that pair – particularly PERFECT CLASS (12) – should provide just enough mid-race heat that TRIPLE EIGHT (6) can peel then rip the way he relishes most and charge over them in the lane. Blessings to those that jagged the $18 opening price about him. If the much shorter quoter now available doesn’t tempt you the secondary option here might be JILLIBYJACKSPARROW (8) on a 1×3/4 or Place-only basis given the fact, he’ll enjoy the softest of journeys and certainly possesses the pace to be closing ominously from 3 poles in transit.
Race 2
5TILLY JAYNE2KEAYANG BLUE JEANS7THESUNANDTHEMOON4CLASSIC ANGELINA1OZZIE JOY3SASSINESS6NIKI NAH NAH9NORMS LADY10ISTHISJUSTFANTASY8LE BELLE BIJOUXMAP CONFIDENCE: 70% (That KEAYANG BLUE JEANS (2) will find the pegs ahead of polemarker).
60-70% (That TILLY JAYNE (5) will work across and find lead once dust has settled though KEAYANG BLUE JEANS (2) may hold up).
I’m penning these previews quite a bit earlier this week and as a result, sadly, I have no conception of what price we’ll receive about TILLY JANE (5) but the fact remains I do believe she’s probably the Best bet all night and if we get anything like the $3.5 listed via HRV’s website I’ll be launching with dreadful intent. But we won’t. While it’s very unlikely TJ will cross a fast front line for pace, the lead ‘should’ be hers barring KEAYANG BLUE JEANS (2) holding up for obvious reasons. If she does find the top, I reckon TILLY JANE (5) – who beat budding star Bay Of Biscay last start – is a proper $1.30 chance and even if she doesn’t I’m confident she can breeze and win with even luck with ISTHISJUSTFANTASY (10) and, perhaps, LE BELLE BIJOUX (8) her only realistic threats.
Race 3
1ROCKANDANCE8COOL NIGHT4ROCKIN GEMMA2GILTY BY THE BEACH9ASMILEANDAWINX5ALWAYS THE SHOWMAN7BLASTER RANGER3LAYDEN10TARA VICTORY NZ6BIG BOY MALMAP CONFIDENCE: 90% (That the leader will come from ROCKNDANCE (1) or ROCKIN GEMMA (4) with a decent leaning toward ROCKNDANCE (1)).
As many will be aware, The Shawshank Redemption remains my favourite film of all-time (boring I know), and one of my most cherished quotes from said classic opines that ‘hope is a dangerous thing’. And it is. That’s why I’m protecting myself from believing COOL NIGHT (8) will start even close to the $9 listed on HRV-bet. On exposed form the only two legitimate leading hopes are ROCKNDANCE (1) and ROCKIN GEMMA (4) but the living legend steering the polemarker, Ants Butt, is not known for going quietly into that good night so I’m tipping ROCKNDANCE (1) holds up with COOL NIGHT (8) lobbing the much-coveted trail in transit. If that map materialises then CN should have few excuses and even if he does finish up 3 poles, the podium remains well within his grasp for EW players. With all that on record, perpetual Black Booker LAYDEN (3) remains the horse to beat with price being the critical factor while BIG BOY MAL (6) draws to produce another massive if ultimately fruitless run but must be considered if the price is right given just how well he’s going.
Race 4
In many ways the final leg of tonight’s Early Quad has ‘no bet’ written all over it with an unclear map, a returning talent – BLAKE BOLAC (4) – and a range of runners rising/falling in grade. Despite these facts I remain sick for VEE EM GEE MACRAY (3) who I was mad-keen about two starts back when she failed then missed the bet last time out when she was successful. On talent and potential, she and Blake look to have something on these, but VMG has fitness on her side, and I couldn’t help investing on her if we somehow get any better than $3. The other interesting option from a Place-only perspective is SPRINGFIELD AFFAIR (1). He could possibly lead here but is much more likely to trail and his record when trailing over the short is exemplary (8 starts for 4 wins & 4 placings). He also drops in grade and based on his figure formline could blow out to giant odds the drum.
Race 5
The first leg of tonight’s Quad is a nasty little Minx of race where nothing is certain and very few form lines connect in any meaningful way. Nevertheless, hopefully, if all the stars align, we may have found a decent wagering option. That option being FINAL COLLECT (5). A couple of times in recent weeks FC has been used off the gate without receiving reward for his efforts. Despite this fact he does have above average early speed and if he were to lead here – which is eminently possible – he’d surely prove very tough to roll. Even though the rating wouldn’t suggest as much I also reckon, he finds himself an easier assignment than those he’s faced of late and, critically for EW players should the price be right, he’s also strong enough to figure on the podium if the lead doesn’t materialise as hoped.
Race 6
I’m keen in this evening’s open class for squaregaiters. Sure, a couple of things will need to go right, and life is never easy for him given his dearth of genuine gate speed, but fourth up from a break, with his major threats drawn outside of him, this contest looks tailor-made for Group 1-winner PARISIAN ARTISTE (5). I’ve been with him in some shape or form at his last couple and despite failing to prevail in those runs PA has been super on both occasions and it’s only expected he’ll be better again tonight. If life works out perfectly here, he could balance early, charge forward then reasonably expect the front to be on offer and the only 3 times he’s led at race-level have all result in success. Importantly again, while finding the front would be awesome, he remains a proper winning hope even if he doesn’t and may start right around that price where you can back him EW to wipe your face.
Race 7
3ROYAL CHARLOTTE1PARIS KAY4DICHOTOMY2USED TO BE A MAID8RAPID RETURN7WHOS THE MAN9SOVEREIGN TIGER6REMUS PHOENIX5INMYDREAMS10MEADOW VALLEY STARMAP CONFIDENCE: 70% (That ROYAL CHARLOTTE (3) will get to pegs and likely hold unless victim of unforeseen early pressure).
Another tricky race for the trotters here where at least half the field can win and while the upside for REMUS PHOENIX (6) is obvious he’s at that learning stage of his career where taking him on feels like good business. Yet again, with these spiels being published earlier than normal, I’m blind to the market but still reckon we can play two runners here on a 1×3 basis, one of whom could be massive odds based on her figure formline. That horse is PARIS KAY (1). We all know the kind of potential that girl has when in the mood and 2 of her last four runs, particularly her most recent effort, have been very encouraging indeed. If I’ve mapped this race right and PK’s pseudo-stablemate ROYAL CHARLOTTE (3) leads & holds then the polemarker won’t need to go much if any better than her latest outing to prove very dangerous and as a result rates and the best ‘roughie’ all night. The other runner worth considering on an EW basis is RAPID RETURN (8) who saluted last time she had this draw and looks to carry the best outright form references of any runner engaged.
Race 8
This is an insanely tough up-to-55 rater where at least 5 front row runners possess above average gate speed and almost anything could happen given the 10K prizemoney pool on offer. I’m opting to let this one through to the keeper but if forced to play two ways these would be them. ROYLANCE (6) to win at a decent price in the hope he crosses given the fact he’s saluted the last three times he’s led, and ROCKNROLL GRONK (9) to win on the basis he – along with CHAPPY STREETNORTH (10) – will benefit most should they go ballistic as appears very likely through the early stages of this event.
Race 9
3WATTS UP PARTYTIME2I AM PEGASUS4EL RESAMO5KYVALLEY AMANDA1KYVALLEY HEIST NZ6TWEEDLEDEE NZMAP CONFIDENCE: 80%+ (That WATTS UP PARTYTIME (3) will find and keep the front).
My early instinct in tonight’s final event is to steer well clear, which all but certainly assures an effortless triumph for WATTS UP PARTYTIME (3). Those that have followed in recent weeks will know I’ve followed that fellow to Hell and back of late and, once again, believe he’s the clear benchmark tonight over his favoured short course trip with the prospect of leading very likely. If $2.20/30 is offered, I’ll probably go to war with old mate again but if shorter than that I’ll have to let him blaze away without me.
J-BON’S $400 GAME PLAN for Melton – 03/08/2024
Race 1
Triple Eight (6) $20 WIN
Jillibyjacksparrow (8) $20 PLACE
Race 2
Tilly Jayne (5) $50 WIN
Race 3
Cool Night (8) $25 EW
Big Boy Mel (6) $5 x $15
Race 4
Vee Em Gee Macray (3) $20 WIN
Springfield Affair (1) $10 PLACE
Race 5
Final Collect (5) $20 EW
Race 6
Parisian Artiste (6) $30 EW
Race 7
Paris Kay (1) $5 x $15
Rapid Return (8) $5 x $15
EARLY QUADS ($150)
2,6,8,10,11,12/ 5/ 3,8/ 3,4,5 ($54 gets 150%)
2,6,8,10,11,12/ 5/ 3,8/ 1,8 ($6 gets 25%)
2,6,8,10,11,12/ 5/ 1,4,6,10/ 3,4,5 ($54 gets 75%)
2,6,8,10,11,12/ 8,10/ 3,8/ 3,4,5 ($36 gets 50%)
Codes’ Preview and Game Plan
Race 1
Quality race to start the night. On the pod I mentioned the two I liked here were BULLETPROOF BOY (2) and TRIPLE EIGHT (6). I mentioned on Thursday night BULLETPROOF BOY (2) was my on-topper, but I’ve changed my mind slightly as I’ve delved into this one deeper. I’ve swapped my top-two selections around. TRIPLE EIGHT (6) recently has a much stronger head-to-head record against BULLETPROOF BOY (2). And while there’s a world where the latter gets a soft lead tonight and is able to kick for home, with so many quality pacers here it’s unlikely they’ll all let Scott Ewen dictate terms. BULLETPROOF BOY (2) will give a huge sight if leads as I think he will, but TRIPLE EIGHT (6) should settle close enough in the run from gate six, and if there’s enough pace on in the early-mid stages, and it doesn’t have to be lickety-split, it just needs to be average to above average, and I think there will be, then I’d want to side with TRIPLE EIGHT (6) in the final 200m. The cream re the price has largely gone unfortunately but I still have TRIPLE EIGHT (6) a smidgen of value. I’ve got him $4.2fav with BULLETPROOF BOY $4.5 second pick. I think TANGO TARA (10) will be close-up. Such an honest horse at this level and is coming off a last-start win. Stable is going super, as usual. JILLIBY JACKSPARROW (8) will be steaming home and has proved is capable of rattling into it late at this level from the soft pegs trip. KOSIMO (9) will be close-up, too, as that last win was no fluke. He’d been building to that for a while. He’s another who would be suited by plenty of pepper on in the run. Of the rest, you can’t knock OPERATIVE LINE (11) winning form but will have to step up to another level tonight from the alley. PERFECT CLASS (12) is definitely a winning chance but is under the odds IMO. MAJOR ROLL (7) was my blackbooker last week and at $41/$7 is probably worth a drink each-way just in case. And SEW WHAT (1) is not quite going as well as can, but draws for the leader’s back run and if were to improve a smidgen wouldn’t be the worst long-shot you’ll ever see.
Selections: 6-2-8-12-10
Play: TRIPLE EIGHT (6) each-way (15×35)
Race 2
ISTHISJUSTFANTASY (10) has done no wrong and is on the way up. She’s a professional and possesses above average brilliance that I think is still untapped. Tonight the draw means she’ll have to sprint past TILLY JAYNE (5) to win, but we’re here to make predictions and I’ve always felt she’s up to better races going forward than she’s been winning. And she can prove that tonight. ISTHISJUSTFANTASY (10) on top. TILLY JAYNE (5) hugely respected map-wise if she leads, and certainly on talent. I do think she might be under-priced if she’s crunched into heavy odds-on but you have to respect her. LE BELLE BIJOUX (8) is going well and drawn to be coming home strongly late. She can fight it out. THESUNANDTHEMOON (7) has early gate speed from wide draws if Alex Ashwood was looking to a throw a spinner in the map works.
Selections: 10-5-8-7
PLAY: $20 WIN ISTHISJUSTFANTASY @ Mid Tote (we’re banking on the money coming for TILLY — fingers crossed!)
Race 3
ROCKANDANCE (1) has been flying since joining Anthony Butt and Sonya Smith. Just needed to draw well in this kind of race to be a top chance and has with gate one. LAYDEN (3) is the main danger. So close to a win and I’ve been with him for a few starts now. On class is massively in this tonight. COOL NIGHT (8) another who is underrated and draws to trail the likely leader. Will be launching late and the early odds on offer were overs. BIG BOY MAL (6) has been steadily building up to a potential knockout win at odds. Will run a good race again. And TARA VICTORY (10) takes winning form into tonight and is from the in-form Ewen stable. Not totally without a fluker’s hope.
Selections: 1-3-8-6
Play: ROCKANDANCE to win ($4.2 opened TAB)
Race 4
Potentially a tricky affair this but I do feel VEE EM GEE MACRAY (3) is the best horse in the race. With that in mind, she also gets the barrier draw advantage over the horses I have as her major rivals tonight in BLAKE BOLAC (4) and CLEAR LEFT (5). SPRINGFIELD AFFAIR (1) gets chance to try and punch through and lead tonight. I’m not certain he will lead, however, but gets his chance if Luke Dunne so desires. That would obviously bring CLYMENUS (8) into play. And ROCKNROLL WALLA (6), AMERICAN LEGACY (7) and RADIUS (9) are all somewhere in the mix for minor money at least.
Selections: 3-4-5-8
Play: Win on VEE EM GEE MACRAY (3) (opened $3.30 TAB)
Race 5
First leg of the quaddie sees FINAL COLLECT (5) find a winnable race and has opened bigger odds than should be. Last couple haven’t been bad, but not up to his best. This class is right in his wheelhouse tonight and will be hard to hold out. HES CHARLIES ANGEL (4) gets a chance to improve at a price. ARGGGHHH (6) is also an interesting prospect at $21. That feels big. EARL OF PEMBROKE (9) could blow them all out of course, because is a talent and on class right in this. Opened $5 and some early money has come, so respect. And CLASSIC MISSION (3) maps to potentially find the pegs, at least initially, and if does, then right in play. Another who has attracted early market support.
Selections: 5-3-4-6
Play: Win on FINAL COLLECT (opened $6)
Race 6
PARISIAN ARTISTE (5), KEAYANG IGNITE (6) and HARRY STAMPER (8) are the main three here. I could make a case for having something on PARISIAN ARTISTE (5) but the big early money has come for KEAYANG IGNITE (6) and at his best, he’d take a power of beating. Outside the big three, SLEEPEE (4) is the only other I’m keen on. Whether or not tonight is her opportunity, not entirely sure, but she’s close to another win and if she could find the pegs, I wouldn’t rule out a boil-over. She will go in my personal quad (not playing one for the Game Plan as it’s just going to be too wide!).
Selections: 8-6-5-4
Play: Please yourself
Race 7
J-Bon made a great case at odds for PARIS KAY (1) on the podcast and the $26 available for a pinch this morning will have excited fans who followed the guru. REMUS PHOENIX (6) deserves to be top pick here, but ROYAL CHARLOTTE (3), DICHOTOMY (4), RAPID RETURN (8) and MEADOW VALLEY STAR (10) all have claims.
Selections: 6-10-8-4
Play: Please yourself
Race 8
Unfortunate that this race is in the quad to put it bluntly. I don’t have a strong opinion.
Selections: 9-4-6-1
Play: Please yourself…
Race 9
Good trot to finish, albeit a small field with just the five runners after the scratching. KYVALLEY AMANDA (5) is bursting to win one and I think she can run over the top of them late here. WATTS UP PARTYTIME (3) as usual will be giving them something to chase.
Selections: 5-3-6-4
Play: Win KYVALLEY AMANDA (4) (opened $2.90)
Codes’ $210 GAME PLAN
R1 No.6 TRIPLE EIGHT $15 WIN X $35 PLACE @ $4.60/$1.75 (opened $18 but price was gone before we did the pod!)
R2 No.10 ISTHISJUSTFANTASY $20 WIN @ MID TOTE (hoping drifts!)
R3 No.1 ROCKANDANCE $20 WIN @ $4.20
R4 No.3 VEE EM GEE MACRAY $20 WIN @ $3.30
R5 No.5 FINAL COLLECT $20 WIN @ $6
R9 No.4 KYVALLEY AMANDA $30 WIN @ $2.90
Early Quaddie: 2,6,7,8,9,10,12 / 5,10 / 1,3,6,8,10 / 3,4,5,8 — $50 for 17.85%