Melton Preview – August 17, 2024
In This Article
Bon’s Preview and Game Plan
Race 1
4MACH DAN1TANGO TARA NZ9PERFECT CLASS8PERFECT STRIDE NZ2HURRICANE HARLEY11SEW WHAT10HELLUVA NZ13BULLETPROOF BOY6OPERATIVE LINE3TRIPLE EIGHT NZ12BACH NZ5RAKERO REBEL NZMAP CONFIDENCE: 90% (That MACH DAN (4) or TANGO TARA (1) will lead with a significant leaning toward MACH DAN (4). PERFECT CLASS (9) looks likely to make an early move and ultimately occupy the breeze).
In slight contradiction to recent weeks there look to be somewhat limited winning hopes in tonight’s now traditional fast class opening event. Despite failing to cross before ducking in for the trail & ultimately prevailing, one suspects that MACH DAN (4) should probably lead and retain that advantage tonight. As a result, he’s one of the ‘big three’ here for mine, along with TANGO TARA (1) & PERFECT CLASS (9). The biggest single element separating that trio is price, with Emma Stewart’s pair both $3.5 or less & TANGO TARA (1) $7.5 & $1.85 (opened $9.5). Add in the fact that TANGO TARA (1) is almost certain to lob the ideal trip either leading, or more likely trailing, and he picks himself on a 1×2 basis. The other runner worth considering on a Place-Only basis at $4.2 is PERFECT STRIDE (8) who looks like settling 3 poles and went terrific in similar company last time out.
Race 2
2SWEETPASSION1JACCKA CONNOR NZ5CLEAR LEFT NZ8CRIME WRITER3HUGO ROCKS4SPRINGFIELD AFFAIR9MAGNETIC TERROR NZ7YOUNGGIFTEDANDBLACK NZ10ROADMASTER11ARGGGHHH6RADIUSMAP CONFIDENCE: 90% (That SWEETPASSION (2) or CLEAR LEFT (5) will lead with INTENT deciding which of the pair lamplights this field in transit).
It’s uncertain whether the market will concur with my appraisal but I’m confident two runners stand out above all others in this evening’s second event; and they are only separated in my mind by map considerations. The two horses I’m referring to are CLEAR LEFT (5) and ROADMASTER (10). Given her excellent early pace SWEETPASSION (2) should find the pegs soon after the start. Her typical race pattern would suggest she’d be better placed taking a sit on something and the obvious option is CLEAR LEFT (5). She is, however, a stablemate of ROADMASTER (10) so may well hold the front and run along. If CLEAR LEFT (5) finds the top I reckon he’s the one. If not, then ROADMASTER (10) takes his place. Either way I’m bullish that both runners will feature on the dais so sneaky Tricks based around that pair finishing 1-2 or 1-3 is my preferred option at this juncture.
Race 3
7VERY PRETTY3TILLY JAYNE5VEE EM GEE MACRAY1SWEETNIKKILOU4THESUNANDTHEMOON8NORMS LADY6FIRST DANCE NZ10DELIGHTFULL TAMMY9ISTHISJUSTFANTASYMAP CONFIDENCE: 60-70% (That VERY PRETTY (7) will bully her way to the front with TILLY JAYNE (3) the only realistic chance of holding her out over the short trip).
This hasn’t happened in a while, but I’m thinking we should have two Money Races in succession here – and that’s the way I like it. Price monitoring could be key in tonight’s third event as emerging heroine VERY PRETTY (7) endured a brutal first-up run 4 weeks back and hasn’t been seen since. Nevertheless, she looks a ‘very’ special horse, and I expect her to salute if she’s on song and receives even fortune. Crucially, if you’re willing to play Tricks like me, with her as the standout runner, then the tiers beneath that filly play very well for exotics. On the second tier we have TILLY JAYNE (3) & ISTHISJUSTFANTASY (9). And on the third tier, SURFINGMAKESSCENTS (2), VEE EM GEE MACRAY (5) and, perhaps, SWEETNIKKILOU (1). Using those tiers as template and orchestrating a few aggressive staggers should prove profitable it done correctly.
Race 4
The extraordinary depth of front-line gate speed involved in the final leg of tonight’s Early Quad, along with its heady mix of converging formlines, would typically rule me out of getting involved. And, ultimately, it almost certainly will. The only way I play here is if KYVALLEY AMANDA (7) opens – or gets out to – something like $4. If they go berserk early, I reckon she can swamp her rivals with the major threat being EBONYS AVENGER (1) dropping wildly in grade. Hopefully we’re three legs into the EQ and can watch this event through that lens only.
Race 5
2SON OF MAC NZ1GILTY BY THE BEACH6GHOST OF TIME8TWISTED BLISS4HOT DEAL7ANOTHER NIEN9HIRANYA NZ10ROCKANDANCE11EARL OF PEMBROKE NZ5TIGER BAND WAGONMAP CONFIDENCE: 70% (That SON OF MAC (2) will find pegs first & resist early challenges over short trip with a small hope he’ll hand to either HOT DEAL (4) or GHOST OF TIME (6) (slightly more likely).
On face value SON OF MAC (2) appears the obvious play here. He’s unbeaten in front, looks the leader and has trialled well since his last race start in early July. Nevertheless, I would need around $3.5 as he’ll likely cop pressure from several sources, nothing replicates race-fitness and it’s an exceptionally strong contest for this grade. The only other I’d be willing to back around the $5 is class commodity EARL OF PEMBROKE (11) who is absolutely gagging to win third-up from a break but will still need a fair bit to go right from his painful alley over Melton’s short course trip.
Race 6
2KEAYANG TOKYO1HES CHARLIES ANGEL6OLIVER DAN9STRAVINSKY3LITTLE LOUIE7MAGIC MIKE NZ10DANGEROUS4ROARFORROSCOE5CLYMENUS NZMAP CONFIDENCE: 70% (That KEAYANG TOKYO (2) will find and retain the front over short trip with small chance he takes sit on OLIVER DAN (6) & even smaller hope HES CHARLIES ANGEL (1) holds him out).
There’s a bit going on in this very high quality 80-89-rater, but I keep coming back to the extreme likelihood KEAYANG TOKYO (2) will lead, that she’s never been rolled in front, that she’s a very nice horse and that she’s unlikely to cop a genuine hammering in transit. Cumulatively, this obviously makes her a bet. As always, price remains important, but I’ve marked her around $2.5, I believe that may be generous, and with class rivals like OLIVER DAN (6) and DANGEROUS (10) engaged (clearly her major threats) I don’t think she’ll open a ridiculously short quote. The other worthy Place wager – if we cop a decent quote – is HES CHARLIES ANGEL (1) who showed nicer improvement last start, gets the gate, and has always possessed more than his fair share of talent.
Race 7
I’m not a great fan of this event and it could cause headaches for Quad combos, but the way DICHOTOMY (4) saluted last start I’d seriously have to back her if she opened/started anything like the $5 offered on HRV-Bet. On the prices listed there, she represents the giant overs while KYVALLEY MICHAEL (5) could be our ‘saver’ option if he, once again, represents something like the $7 on said site. Conversely, the ‘unders’ from quotes outlined are FOCUS (2) ($3.2) and HEAD EM UP (7) ($3.8).
Race 8
Another no-betting race for the squaregaiters here in the form of tonight’s fast-class affair of that denomination. If JUST BELIEVE (4) has yet to achieve ‘champion’ status he’s within a hair’s breadth of doing so and should simply outclass tonight’s rivals with the quality of opposition, the gap between runs and the small field providing minor yet not totally insignificant obstacles. Sadly, we can’t launch into him at $1.3 and sorting out a very skinny exotic appears too tough with little between three of his adversaries so this might be the time to grab a Cuppa, pray we’re in the Quad, and simply relish watching a modern-day great.
Race 9
Some folks loathe events such as tonight’s penultimate affair, where little separates three runners for talent with only six pacers engaged. Not me. Ultimately, when there’s little more than a bee’s appendage between leading chances, the always crucial map virtually becomes the deciding factor. And in this case, most signs point to WAR DAN BUDDY (3) working over and assuming control. Should that happen, one of his key dangers is a stablemate that are unlikely to pressure him and his ‘biggest’ threat, HES FROM HEAVEN (6) draws worst of all and looks to find himself in a Purgatory of sorts as he won’t want the leader getting away with murder but sets himself up for an ambush via MIKI TO SUCCESS (5) if he parks out and applies any level of heat. I certainly won’t be launching here but if WAR DAN BUDDY (3) opens or starts anything near the $3.2 on HRV-Bet I’ll be pushing something his way for sure.
Race 10
Sadly, this isn’t, or at least won’t be, the happy ending we all wanted & deserved. Predictably enough for those that have followed Pacesetters & the TTO podcast over the past few months, my Best Bet all night was slated to be Operative Line in tonight’s final event. As we now know, he won’t be there. As a partial result of said fact, I’m staying out of a race I was desperate to attack. If you’re keen to play, I’d suggest this looms as a unique opportunity for SOHO HISTORIA (4) to lead & salute with minimal pressure with KOSIMO (7) his major threat should the tempo prove far quicker than I have predicted.
Bon’s Game Plan
J-BON’S $500 GAME PLAN FOR MELTON 17/08/2024
Race 1
TANGO TARA (1) $15 x $30 @ $6.5/$1.55
Flexi Trifecta: 1,4,9/ 1,4,8,9/ 1,3,4,5,8,9 ($36 gets 100%)
Race 2 – MONEY RACE (TRIFECTAS)
5,10/ 5,10/ 1,2,8,11 ($16 gets 200%)
5,10/ 5,10/ 3,9 ($4 get 100%)
5,10// 1,2,8,11/ 5,10 ($8 gets 100%)
5,10/ 3,9/ 5,10 ($2 gets 50%)
Race 3
VEE EM GEE MACRAY (5) $19 PLACE @ $5
7/ 3,9/ 1,2,3,5,9 ($40 gets 500%)
Race 4
KYVALLEY AMANDA (7) $15 EW @ $7/$2.1
Race 5
EARL OF PEMBROKE (11) $10 x $20 @ $5.5/$1.8
Race 6 – MONEY RACE (TRIFECTA)
2/ 6,10/ 3,6,9,10 ($30 gets 500%)
EARLY QUADS ($120)
1,4,9/ 5,10/ 7/ 1,7: $48 gets 400%
1,4,9/ 5,10/ 7/ 2,5,8: $36 gets 200%
1,4,9/ 5,10/ 3,9/ 1,7: $9 gets 50%
1,4,9/ 1,2,11/ 7/ 1,7: $18 gets 100%
1,4,9/ 1,2,11 7/ 2,5,8: $9 gets 33.33%
QUADS ($120)
2,11/ 2/ 4,5,7/ 4: $36 gets 600%
2,11/ 2/ 4,5,7/ 2,3,6: $27 gets 150%
2,11/ 2/ 2,3,6,8/ 4: $12 gets 150%
2,11/ 6,10/ 4,5,7/ 4: $36 gets 300%
4,6/ 2/ 4,5,7/ 4: $9 gets 150%
Codes’ Preview and Game Plan
Race 1
Cracking free-for-all to kick us off, as has been the norm of late. I’m on record as saying RAKERO REBEL (5) is potentially the No.1 pacing mare in Australia come Summer Carnival time. Her recent runs have all been top-notch. However, I do have a couple of concerns since the podcast re tonight’s race. Firstly, YAMBUKIAN (7) is a scratching. Whilst this won’t look like it should make a lot of difference, I was proposing a scenario where MACH DAN (4) led and copped a little heat from YAMBUKIAN (7) with TANGO TARA (1) drawn to get a cheap run leader’s back and RAKERO REBEL to benefit too. With the ‘Buk scratched, there may not be as much mid-race pressure, so if MACH DAN (4) leads, his chances improve. Secondly, Greg Sugars has elected to drive TRIPLE EIGHT (3) over RAKERO REBEL (5). No knock on John Caldow, but the Candy Man surely has the pick of the bunch at Larajay and this decision surprised me a tad. So with that in mind, I’ve swung to MACH DAN (4) for the in-form Jimmy Herbertson, who is absolutely electric at the moment. The last win was terrific for this pacer and he’s got speed to burn early. If he can cross TANGO TARA (1), and I think he can, then he’s the one to beat. TANGO TARA (1) is in the mix whether he leads or trails and I think he’ll trail. As mentioned on the podcast, when he draws gates 1-3 he very rarely misses a drum. Of the others, query on HURRICANE HARLEY (2) first-up but must respect, TRIPLE EIGHT (3) gets Candy Man driving and has been going well for a while, PERFECT STRIDE (8) gets the pegs trip and can run into top-four calculations from there (there is a jackpot), and PERFECT CLASS (9) rates highly, too. If they overdo it early on, PERFECT CLASS (9) will be the lead player to come around and put them away.
Selections:
4 — MACH DAN
1 — TANGO TARA
5 — RAKERO REBEL
8 — PERFECT STRIDE
Game Plan
First 4s ($60 spend)
4 / 1 / 5,8,9 / FIELD $45 for 150%
1 / 4 / 5,8,9 / FIELD $10 for 33.33%
5 / 1,4 / 1,4,5,8,9 / FIELD $7.5 for 12.50%
8 / 1,4,5,9 / 1,4,5,9 / FIELD $7.5 for 6.25%
Race 2
ROADMASTER (10) has X-factor but also has to overcome the back row here. He very well may be able to but I won’t be taking odds-on to find out. Stablemate CRIME WRITER (8) is in the Black Book and is good odds at about $15. He’s certainly in the discussion for an upset here. SWEETPASSION (another Mattie Craven stablemate) can find the pegs first initially and is also double figure odds. CLEAR LEFT (5) is racing superbly and looks a good price around $8.5. MAGNETIC TERROR was $51 with 365 on Friday night. That feels overs. And even YOUNGGIFTEDANDBLACK (7) is pretty generous odds at $31. At the price, something small each-way on the Black Booker.
Selections
10 — ROADMASTER
8 — CRIME WRITER
5 — CLEAR LEFT
2 — SWEETPASSION
Game Plan: $10 Each-way CRIME WRITER (8) @ $19/$4
Race 3
Siding with VERY PRETTY (7). She’s short odds but she’s got a clear class edge for now. As documented on the pod, her run was top-notch last time out despite being beaten at $1.04. ISTHISJUSTFANTASY (9) has come up $15 with 365. I think that’s big odds. She’s $3.10 the place and that to me feels very good value. Of the others, SURFINGMAKESCENTS (2) is an exciting mare for Kerryn Manning. Really keen to see how she measures up and suspect she will. SWEETNIKKILOU (1) and TILLY JAYNE (3) next best.
Selections
7 — VERY PRETTY
9 — ISTHISJUSTFANTASY
2 — SURFINGMAKESCENTS
1 — SWEETNIKKILOU
Game Plan: $40 PLACE @ $3.10 ISTHISJUSTFANTASY
Trifecta ($40 outlay)
7 / 2,9 / 1,2,3,9 —$30 for 500%
7 / 1,3 / 1,2,3,9 — $10 for 166.66%
Race 4
Not a race I’m getting overly excited about to be honest. If she hadn’t jumped off stride, KYVALLEY AMANDA (7) would have gone very close to winning last time. She can bounce back. GRUMPEE (8) was solid first-up and could bob up at a price here. EXALTED (2) is in play, and top pick is the pole, EBONYS AVENGER (1), who has been racing better opposition and gets the good gate. Still other chances in the race, so it’s too open for mine.
Selections
1 — EBONYS AVENGER
7 — KYVALLEY AMANDA
2 — EXALTED
8 — GRUMPEE
Game Plan: Nothing from me.
Race 5
The first leg of the quaddie sees potentially an early burn! But be warned, where there is speed on paper it oftentimes does not translate to speed on the track! Expecting SON OF MAC (2) to come out humming from the good gate and is the likely leader. HOT DEAL (4) can also begin well, however, and GHOST OF TIME (6) generally charges out from the wider draws and could, potentially, cross them all if is really launched. If they do clap the speed on through the early to middle stages, it sets things up nicely for the swooper in EARL OF PEMBROKE (11), who has returned to the track in good order for the Giggler in Jack Laugher. ROCKANDANCE (10) is the other one I wouldn’t let go around at silly odds, especially if the speed ends up being on. The $31 odds feel generous.
Selections
11 — EARL OF PEMBROKE
2 — SON OF MAC
4 — HOT DEAL
6 — GHOST OF TIME
Game Plan:
$15 X $45 EARL OF PEMBROKE @ $5.5/1.8
$2.50 X $7.50 ROCKANDANCE (10) @ $31/$5.5
Race 6
KEAYANG TOKYO (2) could be exceptional and is exciting to see him back at the races. He’s got the advantage over OLIVER DAN (6) at the barriers and should be starting short odds. STRAVINSKI (9) has come up $41 second-up for the Douglas stable and with a soft trip in transit look a must include for exotics. DANGEROUS (10) has plenty of ability and is also resuming. The barrier draw won’t make things easy but is clearly up to fighting this out late, too.
Selections
2 — KEAYANG TOKYO
10 — DANGEROUS
6 — OLIVER DAN
9 — STRAVINSKI
Game Plan: Trifectas ($40 spend)
2 / 6,10 / 3,5,6,9,10 $36 for 450%
2 / 9 / 3,5,6,10 $4 for 100%
Race 7
Interesting race and I’ve found myself potting the favourite, who has come up at shiraz type of odds. I’m going to have a little dabble on a few that represent overs and hope for the best, in DICHOTOMY (4) at $8.50, ALDEBARAN ACRUX (8) at $15, MAESTRO (3) at $10, and YOU NO ILL BE LATE (1) at $51. Godspeed!
Selections
8 — ALDEBARAN ACRUX (each-way)
4 — DICHOTOMY
3 — MAESTRO
1 — YOU NO ILL BE LATE
Game Plan:
$2 @ $51 YOU NO ILL BE LATE (1)
$6 @ $10 MAESTRO (3)
$11 @ $8.50 DICHOTOMY (4)
$6 @ $15 ALDEBARAN ACRUX (8)
Race 8
Champion trotter JUST BELIEVE (4) returns to Melton and strikes a small field here. Look the winner. Suspect KEAYANG IGNITE (3) has come back superb. Nice run first-up and is the main danger to the favourite if there indeed is one. MUFASA METRO (6) on class is in the mix, too, but must negate a wide gate. If SUNDONS COURAGE (1) repeats last week, I guess he could run into it from the pole, too.
Selections
4 — JUST BELIEVE
3 — KEAYANG IGNITE
6 — MUFASA METRO
1 — SUNDONS COURAGE
Game Plan: Nothing from me
Race 9
WAR DAN BUDDY (3) and HES FROM HEAVEN (6) are the keys here with the scratching of SOME AMERICAN. MIKI TO SUCCESS is in the mix, too. With the scratching I’ve swung back to HES FROM HEAVEN (6) for the win, but he’ll be super short odds so I won’t be playing.
Selections
6 — HES FROM HEAVEN
3 — WAR DAN BUDDY
5 — MIKI TO SUCCESS
Game Plan: Nothing for me
Race 10
The scratching of OPERATIVE LINE (2) means we may see an early speed duel between SOHO HISTORIA (4) and JILLIBY JACKSPARROW (5). There’s a chance SOHO HISTORIA (4) has too much pace and JILLIBY doesn’t engage. I Black Booked KOWALSKI ANALYSIS (1) first-up last prep but was tipped straight back out for a spell. Keep an eye on him at odds. KOSIMO (7) is flying and is in this, especially if they do scorch early.
Selections
4 — SOHO HISTORIA
5 — JILLIBY JACKSPARROW
7 — KOSIMO
1 — KOWALSKI ANALYSIS
Game Plan: Up to you
CODES’ GAME PLAN SUMMARY AND QUADS
Race 1
FIRST 4s ($60 spend)
4 / 1 / 5,8,9 / FIELD $45 for 150%
1 / 4 / 5,8,9 / FIELD $10 for 33.33%
5 / 1,4 / 1,4,5,8,9 / FIELD $7.5 for 12.50%
8 / 1,4,5,9 / 1,4,5,9 / FIELD $7.5 for 6.25%
Race 2
$10 Each-way CRIME WRITER (8) @ $19/$4
Race 3
$40 PLACE @ $3.10 ISTHISJUSTFANTASY
Trifecta ($40 outlay)
7 / 2,9 / 1,2,3,9 —$30 for 500%
7 / 1,3 / 1,2,3,9 — $10 for 166.66%
Race 5
$15 X $45 EARL OF PEMBROKE @ $5.5 and $1.8
$2.50 X $7.50 ROCKANDANCE (10) @ $31/$5.5
Race 6
Trifectas ($40 spend)
2 / 6,10 / 3,5,6,9,10 $36 for 450%
2 / 9 / 3,5,6,10 $4 for 100%
Race 7
$2 WIN @ $51 YOU NO ILL BE LATE (1)
$6 WIN @ $10 MAESTRO (3)
$11 WIN @ $8.50 DICHOTOMY (4)
$6 WIN @ $15 ALDEBARAN ACRUX (8)
QUADDIES ($50 outlay)
2,4,6,10,11 / 2 / FIELD / 4 — $45 for 100%
2,4,6,10,11 / 2 / FIELD / 3 — $5 for 11.11%
Total Outlay: $345
Return: ???