Melton Preview – August 10, 2024

In This Article

Bon’s Preview and Game Plan

Race 1

As has regularly been the case in recent weeks, I don’t find myself anywhere near compelled to invest heavily in Saturday nights opening event FFA. There’s no doubting CATCH A WAVE (9) is a genuine star of the sport but first-up, with bigger fish to fry I cannot entertain the thought of backing him at odds upon and despite his awesome potential too many question-marks loom around the THE LOST STORM (2). As mentioned by all pre ‘experts’ of this week’s edition of the Tongue Tie Off podcast, there are several reasons for being lured into an EW investment on RAKERO REBEL (7) but with the fortune she’ll require from her grandstand gate I’d personally need a much better price than that currently on offer ($14 might do it) to get my wagering juices flowing.

Race 2

Rumours suggest there’s been a bit of Argy bargy regarding the way we record prices when the setting Game Plans, but all Codes and I can do is post our assessment as early as possible and hope punters nail the overs often enough. Such is the case in tonight’s second event where it’s very possible based on early indications suggest the ‘best’ horse engaged ALOT LIKE LOUIE (11) could well open at $8.00 or better. If that’s the case, then he appeals as the benchmark wagering option on an EW basis while my equal-top selection BIZZNESS CLASS (7) doesn’t represent equivalent ‘overs’ but may finish up representing the kind of odds we’re looking for. If you’re comfortable level-steaking both, there’s a great chance you’ll come out smiling on the other side.

Race 3

As many following this website would know, I’m a massive fan of super tough mare ALDEBARAN MILEY (5) and the push for her given by legendary racing icon Dan Mielicki on this week’s podcast only makes it tougher not backing her tonight (and it’s still possible I may invest her way given the likelihood she’ll open around the $3.50 mark). Nevertheless, the way I’ve mapped this event leads me more toward the generously priced HATCHBACK (7), who represents established class and must have this race on this racquet should he lead as I’ve predicted, though id only advise followers to join in the chorus if they also believe he’s a great chance of finding the front.

Race 4

From a personal perspective I have no profound opinion on the final leg of tonight’s early Quad, though once again, the power of Dan Mielicki’s convictions around ALDEBARAN ACRUX (10), is specially at $15 should prove enough to ensure I’m invested. Form a price perspective, the other value runner is surely RAPID RETURN (7) who looks like opening at a similar price and is well worth considering at that quote despite her nightmare ally.

Race 5

RACE5
MELTONNEVELE R STUD PACE
EARLY SPEEDSOLID
CONFIDENCE70%
3SMOKEN ACE NZ
2THE BEACH FANTASY NZ
5TECHYS WATCHING
1JACCKA CONNOR NZ
9MAGNETIC TERROR NZ
8RADIUS
6MY UNCLE STAN
4HIGH ABOVE
7CLEAR LEFT NZ

MAP CONFIDENCE: 70% (That SMOKEN ACE (3) can find the front with a reasonable leaning toward him holding that advantage but some chance he trails in transit).

We will certainly learn a lot more about several runners in the first leg of tonight’s major Quad including my preferred runner SMOKEN ACE (3), HIGH ABOVE (4), TECHYS WATCHING (5) and CLEAR LEFT (7). This is one of those races where if Eureka hopefully HIGH ABOVE (4) blows them away at Tomato sauce odds, ill happily take my medicine, but the much more generous quote about the horse I’ve mapped as likely leader SMOKEN ACE (3) appears far more seductive.

Race 6

As is the case with many of tonight’s events there’s a major element of “vibe” over religious logic involved regarding my approach to tonight’s open-class event for the trotters. Fundamentally speaking I’m feeling that SACRED MOUNTAIN (3) should cross to lead in the initial stages of this contest and from there Snooze Svanosio can play things by ear. Whether he holds or tails in transit, I’m simply sensing that third-up on Australian soil she should be ready to show her best, and her best is very good. I also believe ALDEBARAN ZEUS (7) is well under the odds based on his four runs back in Oz this campaign.

Race 7

RACE7
MELTONAUSTRALIAN PACING GOLD PACE
EARLY SPEEDMODERATE
CONFIDENCE80%
6HES FROM HEAVEN NZ
1YOUNGGIFTEDANDBLACK NZ
8EARL OF PEMBROKE NZ
2AMERICAN LEGACY NZ
4HITTHEROADJACK NZ
3GIPSY PRINCESS
5DHAULAGIRI NZ

MAP CONFIDENCE: 80% (That those drawn inside HES FROM HEAVEN (6) will show him due respect and that whoever leads early – probably YOUNGGIFTEDANDBLACK (1) – will take a sit behind him when he comes knocking).

As broadly discussed on this week’s TTO pod/vod emerging star HES FROM HEAVEN (6) looks a genuine lead-and-win proposition but, as predicted, he’s price also represents that fact. As a result, tonight’s penultimate event is better looked at from a “Money Race” perspective with the aforementioned runner isolated on top and EARL OF PEMBROKE (8) acting as our switch-hitting rover for second or third with a significant leaning toward him jagging silver medal honours.

Race 8

RACE8
MELTONPRYDES EASIFEED PACE
EARLY SPEEDMODERATE
4OLIVER DAN
1SPRINGFIELD AFFAIR
7STRAVINSKY
3HES CHARLIES ANGEL
5LE BELLE BIJOUX
6CLASSIC MISSION NZ

MAP CONFIDENCE: 80%+ (That OLIVER DAN (4) will find the front and mostly get things on his own terms once he does).

It’s tough to assess the best way to attack this evening’s get-out steaks given the almost-certain winner OLIVER DAN (4) will likely start at prohibitive odds. That being said, and despite his change in stables STRAVINSKY (7) seems massively disrespected by early markets and so long as he doesn’t drift alarmingly this could be another “Money Race” option where we play him to rove for second/third, again leaning strongly towards his silver medal claims.

J-BON’S $400 GAME PLAN FOR MELTON 10/08/2024

Race 1
RAKERO REBEL (7) $10 X $20

Race 2
BIZZNESS CLASS (7) & ALOT LIKE LOUIE (11) $40 BUNDLE BET

Race 3
HATCHBACK (7) $20 EW

Race 4
RAPID RETURN (7) & ALDEBARAN ACRUX (10) $10 EW

Race 5
SMOKEN ACE (3) $20 x $30

Race 6
SACRED MOUNTAIN (3) $20 EW

Race 7
MONEY RACE (Trifectas)
6/ 8/ 1: ($20 gets 2000%)
6/ 8/ 2,5: ($30 gets 1500%)
6/ 1/ 8: ($5 gets 500%)
6/ 1/ 2,5: ($5 gets 250%

OctoQUADS ($100)
3,4/ 2,3,6/ 6/ 4: $72 gets 1200%
5/ 2,3,6/ 6/ 4: $16 gets 533.33%
3,4/ 2,3,6/ 8/ 4: $4 gets 66.67%
3,4/ 2,3,6/ 6/ 5,7: $8 gets 66.67%


Codes’ Preview and Game Plan

Race 1

Three of the Vic power stables hold the key in the opener. RAKERO REBEL (7) for Tubbs/Sugars has a wide barrier to overcome but couldn’t be racing much better than she is. She was close-up this company two starts back and she couldn’t have done more than she did last time out from back in the field. Both runs rated through the roof on my ratings (6.5 last start, fourth highest rated pacer on that card, and 6.8 on the 20th of July (third highest rated run of the night). She is a genuine top-class mare and, I think, capable of matching it on the Grand Circuit going forward. Thus, at the $13 available on Sportsbet, she’s worth an each-way play in my mind. The four primary dangers for mine are CATCH A WAVE (9) and YAMBUKIAN (4) from the Andy Gath stable, and THE LOST STORM (2) and MACH DAN (6) from the Emma Stewart yard. All four have claims depending on race shape etc. CATCH A WAVE (9) deserves to be pre-post favourite. It will be interesting to see what the flucs do as we draw nearer race time. Was $2.15 on Thursday night for podcast recording. MACH DAN (6) can find the front on my map, and I don’t think would be handing up the way he’s going. He’s got to be a chance. And there is value about YAMBUKIAN (4) at the ~$16 around. I’ve marked him a fair bit shorter. But RAKERO REBEL (7) is the play.

Top pick: 7 — RAKERO REBEL

Selections: 7-9-6-2-4

Game Plan: $20 each-way RAKERO REBEL (7) $13/$2.60 on Sportsbet 

Race 2

One of my Blackbookers is BIZZNESS CLASS (7) who comes up with the wide gate in this class for the second time at Melton in a row. He was super from this gate when close-up behind COOL NIGHT a couple of weeks back, and his last-start effort at Kilmore was meritorious. He will have to do some work to win, most likely, but perhaps the lion’s share of that work could be in the first couple of hundred metres if Jack Laugher lights him up off the arm and he bullies his way to the top. I think more likely is he’ll end up parked initially, and either stay there or lob 1×1 cover. Regardless, he’s close to another win and goes on top for mine. Outside of him the race is wide open, with BLASTER RANGER (1), ANOTHER NIEN (2), BIG BOY MAL (3), TARA VICTORY (8), PABLO ROCKS (9), YAPPER (10) and ALOT LIKE LOUIE (11) all with legit claims. TARA VICTORY (8) might be the one at the juiciest odds worth a look. He’s going better than some might think and if gets the favours at the right time, could run into the finish at any old odds. If $21 or more, worth a little drink each-way.

Top pick: 7 — BIZZNESS CLASS

Selections: 7-8-3-2-11

Game Plan: $10 win X $15 place BIZZNESS CLASS (hoping for the $7 – or better – as quoted on industry page) 

Race 3

Happy to see COPACABANA (3) get out to 2240m. Have been waiting for that and she draws a nice gate here to potentially cause an upset. ALDEBARAN MILEY (5) will be very hard to beat and deserves to be the favourite for mine. Our good mate HATCHBACK (7) is drawn wide but is well-placed with his early gate speed and in this class, and ALL THE TRIX (12) is a talented squaregaiter who is off to a flying start for trainer Adam Stephens.  Good race. Open race. We’ll chase the value.

Top pick: 3 – COPACABANA

Selections: 3-5-7-12

Game Plan: $5 each-way COPACABANA (3); hoping for the $21 or better listed on industry site.

Race 4 

This race is wide-open. I loved the push for ALDEBARAN ACRUX (10) from Dan Mielicki on the podcast this week.

Top pick: Too hard!

Selections: None

Game Plan: Please yourself!

Race 5

If you take the emotion out of an odds-on favourite being beaten, which I do for my ratings, HIGH ABOVE (4) ran an admirable race last time out and is likely capable of bouncing back here. You have to respect the lofty ambitions of the top camp to target much bigger races than this for this potential rising star and on all we know he has to go close. SMOKEN ACE (3) has good early gate speed and I’ve often felt goes around a little bit underrated. He’s a nice pacer with a bright future. He can give this a shake if the favourite performs a wee bit below best. TECHYS WATCHING (5) and CLEAR LEFT (7) must rate among the hopes. CLEAR LEFT (7) especially is racing so well. And RADIUS (8) had a flat spot recently but has bounced back at last couple of starts. This might not be his race but he’s on the way back to somewhere near his best and is always a chance at a price with the right run. Place hopes at odds.

Top pick: HIGH ABOVE (4) 

Selections: 4-3-7-5

Game Plan: Please yourself

Race 6 

Only seven in the fast-class trot but an open affair in which there are at least four serious winning players, possibly five. SACRED MOUNTAIN (3) gets chance to improve third-up for Chris Svanosio. Going well and drawn to play a key role from start to finish. ALDEBARAN VERA (2) doesn’t always have the most gate speed but is very tough and very talented. Must go in. ONE OVER ALL (6) is my top pick but with no great level of confidence. Proven this level and can bounce back from last time out when nothing went right. EBONYS AVENGER (1) will be nice odds and is racing well. She gets chance from the cherry, and ALDEBARAN ZEUS (7) must be somewhere in the discussion. 

Top pick: ONE OVER ALL (6)

Selections: 6-3-2-1

Game Plan: Please yourself!

Race 7

Taken by the rise and rise of HES FROM HEAVEN (6). Seriously talented pacer. Looks like finding the lead and could get away with some cheap splits. EARL OF PEMBROKE (8) would have to be every bit as good as we know he is PLUS some more here if he were to pull off the upset. He was good first-up and will only improve. GAWN (7) always deserves respect, but I don’t like him at 2240m until he proves it a few more times. DHAULAGIRI (5) is hard to catch and I don’t feel this is his race, but on class, he’s in the discussion. As is AMERICAN LEGACY (2) if you wanted a long shot.

Top pick: HES FROM HEAVEN (6) 

Selections: 6-8-2-7

Game Plan: TRIFECTA 6/8/1,2,5,7 $20 for 500% 

Race 8 

Full disclosure, I have not had a chance to put as much thought into this event as I’d like, but OLIVER DAN (4) deserves favouritism. Huge respect for both STRAVINSKY (7) and LE BELLE BIJOUX (5), then further out to CLASSIC MISSION (6) if you wanted to play wider.

Top pick: OLIVER DAN (4)

Selections: 4-7-5-6

Game Plan: Please yourself

GAME PLAN SUMMARY (including Quaddies)

Race 1: $20 each-way RAKERO REBEL (7) $13/$2.60 on Sportsbet 
Race 2: $10 win X $15 place BIZZNESS CLASS (hoping for $7 – or better – as quoted on industry page) 
Race 3: $5 each-way COPACABANA (3); hoping for the $21 or better listed on industry site.
Race 7: Trifecta: 6 / 8 / 1,2,5,7 $20 for 500% 
QUADDIES ($40 spend) 
4 / 1,2,3,6,7 / 6 / 4,7 – $20 outlay
3,5,7 / 1,2,3,6,7 / 6 / 4,7 – $20 outlay

Total outlay: $135

Total return: