Early Thoughts – May 25, 2024 – Melton
Jason Bonnington’s Early Thoughts
With the inaugural Tongue Tie Off poddy in the can, I thought we might stimulate some pre-race-day interest by outlining my ‘early’ thoughts on the nine-race programme at Melton Saturday night.
Now, and listen closely, or read intently, whatever suits.
Despite the fact we’ll be posting such musings on Friday every week, this is not, I repeat NOT, my final Game Plan.
With precious few prices available before Saturday morning, the short, sharp, somewhat shrill outline of how I’d like to play at Melton simply represents a guide of sorts.
BEST
Race 3 No. 9 Captain Hammerhead WIN at $2 or better
VALUE
Race 1 No. 1 Watts Up Partytime WIN at $3 or better
ROUGHIES
Race 2 No. 8 Operative Line EW at $6 or better (we should get heaps better)
Race 8 No. 11 Fullofmischief EW at $10 (we should get heaps better)
MONEY RACE
Race 5 – ($50 Trifectas)
5 / 3 / 1, 7, 9 ($30 gets 1000%)
5 / 1, 7, 9 / 3 ($10 gets 333.33%)
3 / 5 / 1, 7, 9 ($10 gets 333.33%)
Race 6 – ($40 Trifecta)
1 / 8, 9 / 7, 8, 9, 12, 13 ($40 gets 500%)
Cody Winnell’s Race Day Game Plan
Race 1
Tipping LOVE GUN (9) but with no great level of confidence. SHESAWISH (7) is over the odds for the place at $3 (was closer to $4 when Bon and I both agreed she could lead initially on the podcast). Respect WATTS UP PARTYTIME (1), EBONYS AVENGER (3), SHES RUBY ROO (8) and LADY ADELIA (10) — hence I’m not keen to play.
Game Plan: Nothing.
Race 2
Keen on ISTHISJUSTFANTASY (4) and rapt I was proven wrong with her opening $5.5 this morning. I thought she’d be closer to even money! There has been a huge go this morning for Bon’s pick OPERATIVE LINE (8), who got as short as $2.7 with one WSP. Might win but surely that’s too short. I’m keen to back ISTHISJUSTFANTASY (4) for the win.
Game Plan: $20 win ISTHISJUSTFANTASY @ $5
Race 3
CAPTAIN HAMMERHEAD (9) is the progressive horse and the class of this field, but I’m not going to jump into odds-on about him. I’ll have something small 1×5 on TERRY (11) at $26/$5 currently.
Game Plan: $2.5 win x $12.5 place TERRY (11)
Race 4
LIBBY LOU (1) looked impressive winning at Menangle in the heat and has the draw to attempt the repeat. There are obvious issues to that being as simple as that though, such as EUREKA JO (5) (well-backed into $3.2 currently) likely to push forward hard and fast, PERPETUITY (8) drawn the back of the fav and set up for the sprint-lane dive-bomb if they go quick, and VAGUE BEAUTY, who I mentioned was huge value at $13 on the podcast. The $13 is gone unfortunately, but still keen to have something each-way on VAGUE BEAUTY. I was going to play a trifecta, but I’ve gone cold on that! No rules here — so we can change our mind, so long as we put it on record. Consider this that!
Game Plan: $5 win x $25 place VAGUE BEAUTY (11) (currently $8.5/$2.1)
Race 5
Tipped ALOT LIKE LOUIE (1) on the pod when was $8.5. Feels a really good 1×5 go. This horse is a different horse at 3yo. Loving the recent form and should get a beautiful trip from the pole, regardless of what else happens early. Keen Louie! (**Tell me about a dream, Louis, your life’s an open magazine LOUIEEEE!!)
Game Plan: $10 X $40 ALOT LIKE LOUIE (1)
** reference to The Whitlams and their banger You Sound Like Louis Burdett
Race 6
THE LOST STORM (1) just wins here. I like Bon’s trifecta — refer to above. I’ll just go one-out the fav in the quad.
Game Plan: I’m just watching.
Race 7: Best bet all night is HESITATE (6). I rate this 2yo very highly. Surprised to see $2.25 available this morning.
Game Plan: $50 WIN HESITATE (6)
Race 8: Pod listeners will have heard Bon’s push for FULLOFMISCHIEF (13) and he won me over! But I can’t take any credit for simply being “won over” haha, so I’m invested but won’t be on my Game Plan.
Game Plan: Cheering on Bon’s FULLOFMISCHIEF (was $61 with S/Bet this morning!)
Race 9: Godspeed to all and to all a good night.
Game Plan: Nothing
Codes’ Game Plan Summary
R2 No.4 ISTHISJUSTFANTASY $20 WIN @ $5
R3 No.11 TERRY $2.5 WIN X $12.5 PLACE @ $26/$5
R4 No.11 VAGUE BEAUTY $5 WIN BY $25 PLACE @ $8.5/$2.1
R5 No.1 ALOT LIKE LOUIE $10 WIN BY $40 PLACE @ $6.5/$1.4
R7 No.6 HESITATE $50 WIN @ $2
Total spend: $165
Total return: ???