Codes’ 2024 Melbourne Cup Preview
The 164th Melbourne Cup will be run and won at Flemington tomorrow.
The weather gods have shone brightly on those heading trackside. Or those enjoying outdoor parties and barbecues, with 27 degrees tipped and only moderate breeze.
Curators will aim to have a pinch of sponge in the track early on the program, but by Cup time I’d be expecting it to have firmed up.
Regulars will note that I’ve made you click a link on the Facebook preview this year. The reason for this is user experience. Fact is, Facebook isn’t built for long-form, and I’ve got this Pacesetters site we’ve been using for trots previews throughout this year, so here we are!
Righto. Down to business.
This year’s Cup field isn’t stellar for depth.
But at the pointy end, I’m confident there is genuine class, which theoretically should give us an edge in trifectas and first fours.
The class gaps among this year’s runners, in my view, become quite clear as you work through the runners.
Quick disclaimers:
- There’s never a certainty in racing.
- They are racehorses, not motorcars.
I say this now before I launch into the preview because I have not been as confident as I am this year about my top pick since tipping Johannes Vermeer (2nd in 2017) and Fiorente (1st in 2013).
Regular readers of my annual previews will note that I’m not afraid to try and hunt one down at odds, and while I haven’t found the winner with the on-top selection since Fiorente in 2013 (god, time flies…), we’ve at least gone close a couple of times since.
Johannes Vermeer was home and hosed for mine … but pipped right at the post. At the double-figure price, that would have been juicy.
In 2021, I tipped Spanish Mission, which came in third at $10.
My second pick in 2019 was Vow And Declare, which saluted at double-figure odds. Marnie won that day! (She backs Craig Williams every time).
Since about the turn of the century when I started forensically studying the Melbourne Cup form each year to try and find the winner, my winners on-top winners have been:
- 2005: Makybe Diva $4.40
- 2006: Delta Blues $18
- 2007: Efficient $22
- 2013: Fiorente $7
So it’s been 11 years since we’ve had an on-topper salute, and that glorious run betwen 05 and 07 feels like forever ago!
Let’s get about breaking the drought, hey?
Codes’ Runner by Runner Melbourne Cup Preview 2024
- VAUBAN
Trainer: Willie Mullins (3rd Max Dynamite in 2017; 2nd Max Dynamite in 2015; 4th Simenon in 2013)
Jockey: William Buick
Age: 7yo (5 winners since 1993 – 16%)
Barrier: 11 (3 winners since 1993 – 9.67%)
Sent out $5.50favourite last year, the Irish star ran a flat 14th of 23 beaten over 13 lengths. All reports are that he “melted”. He failed to handle the 30-degree heat at Flemington and had probably run his race prior to the jump. With a warm day forecast again (25-27 degrees likely), there’s a definite risk in history repeating itself as this guy is the favourite again. But you have to make a call and Willie Mullins, who is renowned as a genius trainer, says he “learnt a lot” last year and has prepared his horses differently this time around. He’ll also have a plan for race-day to ensure this guy stays cool, calm and collected.
I mentioned earlier that this year’s Cup field isn’t “stellar” in depth but has definite class at the top end. Vauban deserves the top weight as his form lines in recent times are impeccable.
At his most recent run, Vauban finished second to one the world’s genuine champion stayers in Kyprios, beaten 2.3 lengths with each horse lumping 62kg. That was a 2800m race and Vauban was equally (at least) strong through the line. He was full of running at the finish. So while he’s got top weight, he’s only been asked to carry 55.5kg.
Vauban was sent out favourite in a deeper Cup field last year. He failed. He failed to handle the occasion. He didn’t turn up at his best. But on profile, you have to think that if he’s going better this year, against this line-up, he deserves both top weight and the shortest odds.
He has reportedly matured enormously physically from the beginning of the season to now, with Francesca Cumani saying “he’s changed completely… he’s matured, put on condition, looks well-muscled and looks like a new horse”. Whatever Mullins is doing is working.
Vauban is seven years old. The same number of seven-year-olds have won the cup since 1993 as five-year-olds, with five each. Twelve six-year-olds have won the MC and eight four-year-olds. We don’t have any eight-years-or-older horses this year, so I guess they’re all in with a realistic chance statistically on age this year.
Verdict: Vauban is one of seven winning chances I have identified. Final verdict at bottom of article.
- BUCKAROO
Trainer: Chris Waller (2nd Soulcombe in 2023; 3rd Sheraz 2023; 1st Verry Elleegant 2021; 4th Finche 2018; 3rd Who Shot Thebarman 2014; 4th Kelinni 2012)
Jockey: Joao Moreira (2nd Soulcombe 2023; 2nd Heartbreak City 2016; 4th Signoff 2014)
Age: 6yo (12 winners since 1993 – 39%)
Barrier: 21 (4 winners since 1993 – 13%!!)
The Caulfield Cup is still the benchmark race IMO when it comes to getting a guide on Melbourne Cup hopefuls. Of course, not all MC runners go to the Caulfield Cup, so there’s no such thing as one template to finding a winner. But history does say if you run well in a Caulfield Cup you have a better chance of running well on the first Tuesday in November. In a race where backmarkers found it difficult to make ground, Buckaroo was charging through the line up the Caulfield straight at the end of 2400m. His was CLEARLY the standout performance in that event from a Melbourne Cup perspective, leaving fellow Cup hopefuls Land Legend, Zardozi, Fancy Man and others in his wake.
That followed a cracking Cup trial in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes – another traditional MC guide race – when he powered into second place, beaten just 0.2 lengths by none other than Via Sistina, who has since come out and looked like Phar Lap winning the Cox Plate! That is ding-dong form for the Melbourne Cup.
Trainer Chris Waller is winning everything at the minute, so you have to factor that into your thinking here. And the Magic Man Joao Moreira has twice finished runner-up in the Melbourne Cup and is sure to go one better at some stage. He’s some hoop!
The query for Buckaroo is that old chestnut, “will he get two miles?” We’ll find out. But he ticks so many boxes that he deserves to be right at the top of the market order.
Verdict: Buckaroo is among my seven winning chances in this year’s Melbourne Cup. Which order? Find out at the bottom of the preview.
- CIRCLE OF FIRE
Trainer: Ciaron Maher (4th Ashrun 2023; 1st Gold Trip 2022; 3rd High Emocean 2022; 4th Floating Artist 2021)
Jockey: Mark Zahra (1st Without A Fight 2023; 1st Gold Trip 2022)
Age: 5yo (5 wins since 1993 – 16%)
Barrier: 24 (0 wins since 1993 – 0%)
Can jockey Mark Zahra make it three straight Melbourne Cups? He teams with champion trainer Ciaron Maher with this Sydney Cup winner, who is a proven two-mile horse. The Sydney Cup win was meritorious as he was wide the trip and showed lots of character to get it done.
The issue is that he hasn’t fired this time in and I needed to see a better closing effort in the Caulfield Cup. He was beaten 14 lengths and wasn’t in the same realm as Buckaroo or even Land Legend or Zardozi.
The extra 800m will help, and there’s a second First 4 I’ll be playing this year where I just toss every Waller and Maher outsider into fourth with my top-seven stood out in the first three positions, because they’re just those kinds of trainers, but I can’t find find a realistic place for this guy and have him ranked down the order.
Verdict: Not for me.
- WARP SPEED
Trainer: Noboru Takagi
Jockey: Akira Sugawara
Age: 6yo (12 wins since 1993 – 39%)
Barrier: 3 (2 wins since 1993 – 6.4%)
Always respect Japanese horses when they head anywhere. Love the memories of Delta Blues winning at any old odds back in my aforementioned hot streak!
I expected a fair bit more out of this guy in the Caulfield Cup, but, I think we need to treat some of the runs out of that race with a little caution given so many just failed to run on from the back. This is what made Buckaroo’s performance all the better.
This guy has good credentials at 3000m-plus and he’s drawn to settle a lot closer than last start at Caulfield. He could make us look foolish by turning it around quickly, but I just cannot shake how flat he looked last time out and I’m taking a punt by leaving him out as a consequence.
Verdict: Risking him through gritted teeth!
- KOVALICA
Trainer: Chris Waller (2nd Soulcombe in 2023; 3rd Sheraz 2023; 1st Verry Elleegant 2021; 4th Finche 2018; 3rd Who Shot Thebarman 2014; 4th Kelinni 2012)
Jockey: Damian Lane
Age: 5yo (5 wins since 1993 – 16%)
Barrier: 17 (1 win since 1993 – 3.2%)
The second of the “Waller Army” is this Queensland Derby winner, who has failed to land the knockout blow on multiple occasions since.
The Cox Plate sixth was fine without being flash. The Hill Stakes second was a pass but probably should have been able to overpower Attrition late. And that is kind of my issue with this guy. He sometimes appears to struggle to land the knockout blow when it matters but is always finishing well.
Two huge bonuses in being from the Waller stable and having the services of one of the very best jockeys we have in Damian Lane.
Verdict: He’s outside my top 10.
- SHARP ‘N’ SMART
Trainer: Greame and Deborah Rogerson (1st Efficient in 2007; 4th Zipping in 2006)
Jockey: Michael Dee
Age: 5yo (5 wins since 1993 – 16%)
Barrier 15: (0 wins since 1993 – 0%)
Forgiving this fella’s Turnbull Stakes run when wide and given no real chance. The Moonee Valley Cup run was solid when it looked like he wanted further. He was shown the whip before the turn but he stuck at it and was finishing on nicely very late.
At his best he won the New Zealand Derby last March and finished second in a VRC Derby. At that 2500m effort he was sticking to his guns really well, but looked to me like a horse crying out for two miles.
He’s got a touch of class and the distance suits, but not sure he has the required brilliance to win a Melbourne Cup. Got him just inside the top 10.
Verdict: No from me but can run top 10
- JUST FINE
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott (1st Fiorente 2013; 2nd Fiorente 2012; 2nd Nothin Leica Dane 1995)
Jockey: Jye McNeil (1st Twilight Payment 2020)
Age: 7yo (5 wins since 1993 – 16%)
Barrier: 13 (1 win since 1993 – 3.2%)
How about this for a story? The My Racehorse team syndicates this gelding out to stacks of micro-ownership shareholders – and every one of them can say “I have a Melbourne Cup runner!”
Jye McNeil produced a ripping front-running ride to win the COVID Cup of 2020 with Twilight Payment and suspect he will be looking for something similar here.
Just Fine loves to roll forward and give his owners and backers a sight. He’s trained by Waterhouse/Bott after all.
His win in the Bart Cunnings punched his ticket for the big race when he showed plenty of ticker up the long Flemington straight to hold off all comers.
This is a massive task, however. Hugely more difficult than that race, and he’s coming into it off a pretty ordinary run in the Moonee Valley Cup when he was beaten a long way from home.
Wishing all the owners all the very best. It’ll be a blast, but I have the rank outsider.
Verdict: Looking elsewhere for the winner
- LAND LEGEND
Trainer: Chris Waller (2nd Soulcombe in 2023; 3rd Sheraz 2023; 1st Verry Elleegant 2021; 4th Finche 2018; 3rd Who Shot Thebarman 2014; 4th Kelinni 2012)
Jockey: Zac Purton (4th Finche 2018; 3rd Max Dynamite 2017)
Age: 5yo (5 wins since 1993 – 16%)
Barrier: 18 (1 win since 1993 – 3.2%)
A very interesting runner. Lightly raced five-year-old from the all-conquering Chris Waller stable with superstar jockey Zac Purton in the saddle.
Very solid third in the Caulfield Cup from up near the speed and won the Metrop prior to that. Traditionally solid lead-up form into a Melbourne Cup. Really liked the St Leger win at 2600m in Sydney last October (2.7 lengths) and looks a horse that should be suited to two miles.
The Caulfield Cup third was a very good effort, but he got agitated pre-race on that occasion and overdid it in the run.
Waller – who is winning EVERYTHING at the minute – is trying ear muffs for this guy tomorrow, which will hopefully get him to block out the crowd noise somewhat and just do his thing. He has the talent to be competitive but if he lets the occasion get to him, he’ll be brought undone again.
Waller also took Land Legend to Bendigo Cup Day, where he didn’t race but he did gallop 1600m and take in the crowd that day to try and ‘take the edge off him’ a bit.
If any of these things work and he settles nicely and puts his best foot forward, he’s a contender.
However, I do have others ahead of him. I don’t like the 3kg swing against him that is to Zardozi’s benefit from their Metropolitan clash. The mare went down a very narrow margin and even issued a protest on that occasion. And when you’re looking at breaking every factor down to the nth degree, everything counts.
Verdict: He’s in my top-10 but not in my ‘seven key winning chances’
- ABSURDE
Trainer: Willie Mullins (3rd Max Dynamite in 2017; 2nd Max Dynamite in 2015; 4th Simenon in 2013)
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy (1st Brew 2000; 1st Almandin 2016; 1st Cross Counter 2018; 4th Ashrun 2023; 4th Deauville Legend 2022; 2nd Tiger Moth 2020; 2nd Crime Scene 2009.
The second of the Willie Mullins runners is Absurde. Fun fact – the same two horses he presented for the MC last year. On that occasion, like this year, Vauban was the more favoured runner yet Absurde ran the best race, finishing a valiant seventh.
With the extra year under his belt with Mullins, I am expecting to see a more furnished Absurde here – and if the Cup isn’t as deep this year and he finished seventh 12 months ago, well on that score alone he’s somewhere in the mix.
Kerrin McEvoy is a huge booking. He’s won three Melbourne Cups, finished second twice and fourth twice. It’s a dominant record.
When internationals come into a Melbourne Cup without a local run, I want them to have either won their most recent race or finished top-three in a key international lead-up race. This guy won the Chester Stakes last time out and was very strong through the line in doing so.
Lots of respect for this guy and for that reason, he’s in my seven winning chances.
Verdict: A key player
- ATHABASCAN
SCRATCHED
- KNIGHT’S CHOICE
Trainer: John Symons and Sheila Laxon (1st Ethereal 2001)
Jockey: Robbie Dolan
Age: 5yo (5 wins since 1993 – 16%)
Barrier: 6 (0 wins since 1993 – 0%)
Sheila Laxon teamed with Scott Seamer to win the Melbourne Cup aboard Ethereal in 2001. Seamer was one of my favourite jockeys back when I was in my late teenage years. What a jet.
Robbie Dolan teams up with Knight’s Choice here and this fella would need a huge form reversal to take the Cup home. Caulfield Cup and Turnbull Stakes runs were flops. Bendigo Cup run was solid without being outstanding – and that hardly looks the right form.
Verdict: No
- OKITA SOUSHI
Trainer: Ciaron Maher (4th Ashrun 2023; 1st Gold Trip 2022; 3rd High Emocean 2022; 4th Floating Artist 2021)
Jockey: Jamie Kah (3rd Prince Of Arran 2020)
Age: 7yo (5 wins since 1993 – 16%)
Barrier: 10 (1 win since 1993 – 3.2%)
The second of Ciaron Maher’s runners, Okita Soushi comes into this a last-start Moonee Valley Cup winner and with one of my favourite names in the race.
I do like how he put them away at the Valley. Tells us he’s primed and ready to fire at the right time. He finished second in the Herbert Power at the start prior after a flop run in the Naturalism, so he’s trending the right way.
Last year he finished 11th in the Melbourne Cup then joined the powerful Maher stable with this year’s big race undoubtedly a long-range plan.
The booking of Jamie Kah is astute. She’s a gem and is riding in confident form after winning the Derby on Saturday.
With 12 months in the Maher barn to acclimatise, a strong “traditional” Melbourne Cup build-up this time in, a terrific jockey and a middle barrier, it’s not hard to make a case for this one.
However, I do not feel his overall form lines up against the absolute big guns in the race and for that reason this fella is the first horse out of my “seven key winning chances”. I have him eighth.
Full disclosure – I had a tenor on him in the Futures Melbourne Cup market at $101 prior to the MV Cup win, so if he does win, I’ll have some reason to smile despite not tipping him.
Verdict: In the mix but JUST outside my “seven key winning hopes”
- ONESMOOTHOPERATOR
Trainer: Brian Ellison
Jockey: Craig Williams (3rd Spanish Mission 2021; 1st Vow And Declare 2019; 4th Qewy 2016; 3rd Mount Athos 2013)
Age: 7yo (5 wins since 1993 – 16%)
Barrier: 12 (1 win since 1993 – 3.2%)
There was a time the Geelong Cup into a Melbourne Cup form was absolutely first class. And so it was with Dunaden in 2011, who went on to win the Melbourne Cup after Craig Williams rode him to win at Geelong. Thirteen years later and Williams is getting Dunaden vibes about Onesmoothoperator. And why not? His Geelong Cup win on October 23 was electric. He was eased down on the line and made an absolute mess of his rivals, which included Interpretation, which most consider a live chance here.
At two miles, Onesmoothoperator won the Northumberland Plate in June when cruised up to them from well back and really strong through the line.
He finished alongside Sea King in the Ebor Handicap. Interestingly, Onesmoothoperator blew them away in the Geelong Cup and Sea King bolted in to win the Bendigo Cup – both taking very similar profiles into this event.
The importance of Williams having that Geelong Cup experience to win on this guy before the Melbourne Cup should not be undersold. For me, it’s one of the factors that gives me the confidence to elevate Onesmoothoperator in the rankings ahead of Sea King. The other factor is that Craig Williams is a dead-set superstar and a proven big-race jockey.
There is so much to like about this runner and he’s right at the top of the list when it comes to the live chances here.
Verdict: Massive chance to win
- ZARDOZI
Trainer: James Cummings
Jockey: Andrea Atzeni
Age: 4yo (8 wins since 1993 – 26%)
Barrier: 4 (1 win since 1993 – 3.2%)
When they crossed the line in the Empire Rose, I grabbed the form guide to mark the Godolpin horse that was charging home into fifth place. Whoever it was, she needed to be black-booked. Turns out it was Zardozi, who was dropping back to a mile from the 2400m Caulfield Cup trip for a Group 1 tune-up ahead of the two-mile Melbourne Cup. It’s a play straight out of trainer James Cummings’ famous grandfather Bart’s playbook.
I may or may not have mentioned earlier that Zardozi gets a 3kg swing in the weights for a very narrow second to Land Legend in the Metrop. That is not to be sneezed at. This mare is doing NOTHING wrong this time in.
The Caulfield Cup run was very sound when fourth. Worked home nicely like a horse that wants further.
History says not many 4yo mares win a Melbourne Cup recently; and in fact the last one to do it was a horse called Makybe Diva, who is kind of in a league of her own, hey?
The preparation that has been afforded to Zardozi, though, is just such an impressive Melbourne Cup lead-up in my humble, and for that reason, I think she has to go into the top chances for sure and certain.
Will it be another Cummings Melbourne Cup win?
Verdict: Could well be… right among the top players for mine
- SEA KING
Trainer: Harry Eustace
Jockey: Hollie Doyle
Age: 6yo (12 wins since 1993 – 39%)
Barrier: 1 (1 win since 1993 – 3.2%)
As referenced in the write-up for Onesmoothoperator, the form lines for Sea King are very good, and very similar to Onesmoothoperator.
The Bendigo Cup trouncing he gave rivals was at the very least equal to Onesmoothoperator’s Geelong Cup victory. He gets a half-kilo swing in the weights on the Ebor run when they were alongside one another. And he gets barrier one, which means theoretically he should be able to lob a nice spot close enough to the pace on the fence.
Hollie Doyle is a terrific jockey, proven on the big stage, and it’s great to see her get the ride here.
For all the reasons I’ve outlined above, Sea King must be one of the leading chances.
Verdict: Huge show
- VALIANT KING
Trainer: Chris Waller (2nd Soulcombe in 2023; 3rd Sheraz 2023; 1st Verry Elleegant 2021; 4th Finche 2018; 3rd Who Shot Thebarman 2014; 4th Kelinni 2012)
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Age: 5yo (5 wins since 1993 – 16%)
Barrier: 22 (1 win since 1993 – 3.2%)
I think this is the fourth of the Waller runners? Losing count as I type!
He is racing like a two-miler. Wasn’t terrible in the Caulfield Cup, though there were better runs. He was forced very wide from well-back at the 700m in a race where nothing much ran on. He found the line OK. He actually finished sixth in the Caulfield Cup last year as a four-year-old when got a bit crowded in the straight. It was a good run there.
His historical form just isn’t as good as, say, a Vauban, who he was no match for in the Ballyroan last August.
He’s only won one race and the class is a bit of a query for mine.
On the plus side, Waller. He’s winning everything… Respecting that factor, but looking elsewhere.
Verdict: Not for me
- FANCY MAN
Trainer: Annabel Neasham and Rob Archibald
Jockey: Ron Stewart
Age: 7yo (5 wins since 1993 – 16%)
Barrier: 19 (1 win since 1993 3.2%)
Produced an eye-catcher back in the Naturalism Stakes when off the track throughout and kept on keeping on. I love those runs – they’re often undersold in my opinion. It told me two things about this horse: 1) He’s got character and is tough. 2) He was going great guns and worth following for the short term at least. He beat home Okita Soushi and Just Fine during that wide run.
His Herbert Power run was very solid, too. He had a much more economical trip and found the line nicely once into clear air.
He ran sixth in the Caulfield Cup when although not blocked at any stage, he was pretty cluttered throughout the race and in the straight I suspect they would have preferred to have gotten to the outside. His run was rock solid.
He is ready for a two-mile handicap with no weight on his back. He’s from a very astute stable and while I have him outside my top-10, he’s not that far out – and he’s one that could sting us all and run into the money without causing a shock.
Verdict: Would not talk you out of having something on the place at any old odds, but I have him midfield.
- INTERPRETATION
Trainer: Ciaron Maher (4th Ashrun 2023; 1st Gold Trip 2022; 3rd High Emocean 2022; 4th Floating Artist 2021)
Jockey: Teo Nugent (3rd High Emocean 2022; 4th Floating Artist 2021)
Age: 7yo (5 wins since 1993 – 16%)
Barrier: 14 (3 wins since 1993 – 9.7%)
Last year’s sixth placegetter, beating home Absurde in seventh, and he’s carrying the same weight this time around. Of last year’s Melbourne Cup runners who have returned, this guy beat the lot of them.
In his past two starts he has produced the fastest final furlong (fun fact – I came ninth in the State Championships of Final Furlong in my younger days). He was slashing home in the Geelong Cup, albeit he was no match for the winner, Onesmoothoperator, who looked magnificent.
A get-back-run-on type, who will eat up the two miles for fun, this guy is over the odds in my opinion.
Maher and Nugent have been getting closer to combining for a Melbourne Cup win and this fella’s in my top seven key winning chances – and you can get almost 20-1.
Verdict: Key player. Huge overs. Can absolutely win.
- MANZOICE
Chris Waller (2nd Soulcombe in 2023; 3rd Sheraz 2023; 1st Verry Elleegant 2021; 4th Finche 2018; 3rd Who Shot Thebarman 2014; 4th Kelinni 2012)
Jockey: Declan Bates
Age: 5yo (5 wins since 1993 – 16%)
Barrier: 8 (1 win since 1993 – 3.2%)
The fifth of the Waller runners. I keep thinking of the Seinfeld episode where Frank invents the “bro” or the “manzier” when I hear this gelding’s name.
Won the Victoria Derby of 2022 but hasn’t really done that much of note since.
It’s hard to make a case for him, other than he’s in a top stable.
Verdict: Not for me.
- MOSTLY CLOUDY
Trainer: Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young
Jockey: Karis Teetan
Age: 6yo (12 wins since 1993 – 39%)
Barrier: 16 (2 wins since 1993 – 6.4%)
From a very smart stable.
Should probably have won the Brisbane Cup in June, but that field is many lengths behind the quality of this line-up.
Karis Teetan is my man in Hong Kong – rides super over there. Great to see him with a Melbourne Cup opportunity.
This guy is coming into this off a flat run in the Bart Cummings, and pretty ho hum form just prior to that. He also hasn’t had a run for 30 days and instead had a trial at Cranbourne, suggesting his prep hasn’t been perfect.
Verdict: Not for me
- POSITIVITY
Trainer: Andrew Forsman (4th The Chosen One 2020)
Jockey: Winona Costin
Age: 4yo (8 wins since 1993 – 26%)
Barrier: 20 (0 wins since 1993 – 0%)
Firstly, of some note, finished similarly to Interpretation in the Bart Cummings – both powering home late – and actually meets that horse 0.5kg better at the weights.
She missed the Caulfield Cup with a hoof issue and then produced a very plain performance at Moonee Valley. She is better than that – but you want to see them building up into a Melbourne Cup, not going the other way.
Query at two miles, but is in good hands.
Verdict: It’s a no from me
- SAINT GEORGE
Trainer: Ciaron Maher (4th Ashrun 2023; 1st Gold Trip 2022; 3rd High Emocean 2022; 4th Floating Artist 2021)
Jockey: Tyler Schiller
Age: 5yo (5 wins since 1993 – 16%)
Barrier: 9 (2 wins since 1993 – 6.4%)
Finished eighth in the Heatherlie when I actually thought he should have won – and won quite comfortably. Was held up for most of the straight.
Went on to run fourth in the Naturalism in a blanket finish, but was pretty poor out to 2500m in the Bart Cummings when looked like looming and launching at the turn, but wilted and was overrun by many late.
At most recent start, ran on OK without being a threat in the Moonee Valley Cup.
A bit like the previous runners, just don’t think he’s building into this race like he needs to. Certainly in a powerful stable and that must be respected. But I’ll be going with others.
Verdict: Prefer others
- THE MAP
Trainer: Daniel Clarken and Oopy MacGillivray
Jockey: Rachel King
Age: 6yo (12 wins since 1993 – 39%)
Barrier: 23 (0 wins since 1993 – 0%)
Murray Bridge visitor, who bolted in on this day last year in the race formerly known as the Lavazza Long Black (what a great race name that was).
In March The Map ran second in an Adelaide Cup, but that field was well below this field’s class.
Won his ticket to the Melbourne Cup through the Ramsden on a Soft 7 at Flemington by 0.5L over Mostly Cloudy.
I don’t mind the prep this time in, with a solid fifth in the Herbert Power followed by a somewhat unlucky sixth in the Geelong Cup. He’s building up the right way.
He will also dead-set run out the two miles better than most, and when there are lots of horses going backwards inside the final 200m, look for him to be carving through the field. He could surprise and lob some big value into the back end of first fours, but I’ve got him just outside the top 10.
Verdict: Could out-stay heaps of them and get into the prize money without surprising but I prefer a few others
- TRUST IN YOU
Trainer: Bruce Wallace and Grant Cooksley
Jockey: Mark Du Plessis
Age: 6yo (12 wins since 1993 – 39%)
Barrier: 5 (3 wins since 1993 – 9.7%)
Was a good jockey, G.L. Cooksley. Here he trains this 6yo gelding from the Land of the Long White Cloud.
I think he’ll run out two miles well enough but I don’t think he’ll do it quickly enough.
Successive fourths in the Metrop and St Leger leading in is just fair form.
Verdict: Others better
MY FINAL THOUGHTS:
I’m with VAUBAN and my confidence is high. See above – but he’s clearly the class and form runner going into this.
BUCKAROO is the best of the locals. The Via Sistina form is awesome.
ONESMOOTHOPERATOR was brilliant at Geelong and Willow will give him every hope.
INTERPRETATION is over the odds at $19.
ZARDOZI, SEA KING and ABSURDE are the other three that can legitimately win.
I’ll be standing VAUBAN out in one First 4 and boxing the seven key hopes in another.
I might craft one with VAUBAN to win, the other six to run second and third, and all the Waller and Maher outsiders to finish fourth.
I’ll also be having a good win bet on VAUBAN at about $7. If he looks a picture in the mounting yard and is handling himself, his odds will probably shorten but I’d probably have another win bet!
And Interpretation is huge overs at $19 or $20, so something each-way there too.
Godspeed however you play the great race. It’s always good fun and hope you enjoyed this year’s preview.
Codes’ 7 Key Winning Melbourne Cup Winning Chances in Order
1 – VAUBAN
2 – BUCKAROO
13 – ONESMOOTHOPERATOR
18 – INTERPRETATION
14 – ZARDOZI
15 – SEA KING
9 – ABSURDE